If China and the U.S. Must Fight, Taiwan Presents Itself as the Ideal Battlefield

How do you view the recent highly contentious remarks made by Lai Ching-te, leader of the Taiwan region?

Ding Yifan：Lai Ching-te seems to enjoy testing Beijing’s red lines, as he has openly referred to Taiwan as an independent country and China as its greatest national security threat.

Lai’s statements are intended as a provocation. This year marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and Taiwan was reclaimed by China in 1945 following Japan’s defeat.

Later, during China’s Liberation War, which was essentially a civil war, the then-ruling Kuomintang (KMT) government was expelled from the mainland and fled to Taiwan, where it entrenched itself.

This means that, in reality, China’s civil war never truly ended. However, at the time, the Communist-led government in mainland China lacked the military strength to reclaim Taiwan, leaving the Taiwan issue unresolved as the U.S. later took the island under its wing.

But the Chinese mainland has long since moved on from where it was during the final stage of its civil war.

If Lai Ching-te seeks to challenge Beijing’s bottom line of national unity now, Beijing will swiftly move on to resolve this historical vestige in a heartbeat—even if it means using force to reclaim Taiwan. China will, sooner or later, have to find a way to bring this matter to a definitive conclusion.

If Lai Ching-te insists on provoking and challenging our bottom line, he is effectively creating an excellent opportunity for us to resolve the Taiwan issue once and for all, permanently ending the civil war and the historical wound.

What Will Beijing Do If the U.S. Interferes with the Taiwan Issue?

Ding Yifan：This is a very good question. I believe that, regardless of the administration in power, the U.S. government lacks the resolve to truly defend Taiwan.

The Pentagon has conducted numerous war simulations with regard to Taiwan, assessing the consequences of U.S. intervention. The conclusion remains the same: the U.S. cannot stop the process.

It is also argued in a recent publication by a U.S. scholar in Foreign Affairs, a highly authoritative journal, that the U.S. should abstain from involving itself in Taiwan, saying that the U.S. shouldn’t go into a war it cannot win.

About a decade ago, I hosted a large delegation of retired U.S. Generals. During our discussion of Taiwan, I made my position very clear.

I said that the shifting balance of power between a rising China and declining U.S. anticipates a tipping point that marks the power transition. Given that Taiwan has become a major obstacle in Sino-American relations, and the U.S. views U.S.-China competition as its primary strategic focus, what do you think the tipping point will be?

Historically, such tipping points have always been marked by war. For China and the U.S., such a war will most likely to be fought over Taiwan.

This would be the perfect opportunity for China to draw the U.S. in, defeat the U.S. military over Taiwan, and thereby mark China’s rise and America’s irreversible decline.

What advantages does China have over the U.S. in a Taiwan conflict?

Ding Yifan：From a military perspective, China has at least four decisive advantages:

Manpower – No war can be fought without soldiers.

The ratio of available troops between China and the U.S. is at least 20:1.

The Russia-Ukraine war has already shown that an army with a significantly larger force suffers fewer losses and ultimately wins.
In a Taiwan conflict, even if the U.S. pulls all available troops from other regions, it would struggle to deploy more than 40,000–50,000 personnel in the Taiwan Strait.

China, however, could easily deploy 1 million troops. This manpower ratio alone makes a U.S. victory impossible.

Weaponry – China has the upper hand in missile technology.

China’s medium-range missiles, including hypersonic weapons, far exceed anything the U.S. possesses in this domain.

The U.S. lacks effective defenses against hypersonic missiles. Even if it deployed all 11 aircraft carrier strike groups, they would be rendered ineffective and could even face total destruction.

In terms of weapons, the U.S. has no advantage over China.

Morale – The PLA’s conviction that it fights a just war

The Chinese military is called the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) because Taiwan remains unliberated.

For PLA soldiers, reclaiming Taiwan is their sacred duty, and they will fight with unparalleled determination.

Conversely, how many American soldiers are truly willing to die to defend Taiwan? That is highly doubtful.

Logistics – The U.S. is too far away

War requires strong logistical support, and Taiwan is close to the Chinese mainland.

For Beijing, ensuring supplies and reinforcements is easy whereas for Washington, sustaining a war so far from its home would be extremely difficult.

Therefore, in all four crucial aspects—troop numbers, weapons, morale, and logistics—China has overwhelming superiority. This is why the Pentagon and American experts know that the U.S. cannot afford to lose such a war. If the U.S. is defeated in Taiwan, it will fall from the pedestal that so many countries have placed it on.

It would have to withdraw its military bases from Japan and South Korea, as China would never tolerate American bases so close to its borders.

From this perspective, Lai Ching-te should recognize the situation. If he truly wants China to resolve the Taiwan issue once and for all, he should continue provoking Beijing, giving China the perfect reason to act decisively.

Will China Struggle with Taiwan Separatists Even After Reunification?

Ding Yifan：This is essentially a non-issue. Historically, China has always been adept at handling internal migrations. If certain individuals refuse to accept reunification, they will have two choices:

Leave Taiwan entirely or relocate within China, where the government can resettle them in other regions.

Ultimately, all Taiwanese are Chinese—what is there to fear?

Editor: Zhongxiaowen