Can the U.S. Even Build a 6th-Gen Fighter Jet Anymore?

Military power has been the pride of the U.S., leading them to believe they are the world’s only superpower. However, China’s 6th-generation fighter jet might shatter that confidence.

On December 26, several videos surfaced on Chinese social media showing public flights of 2 new stealth fighter jets by the Chinese Air Force.

Since World War II, air superiority is the backbone of U.S. military power. The foundation of air superiority lies in the control of the skies, which is the primary mission of fighter jets. In the past, Chinese fighter jets like the J-10C and J-16, which were considered fourth-generation-plus fighters, had many uncertainties in their ability to confront the F-35. Their stealth weaknesses posed unavoidable challenges for Chinese engineers. The introduction of the J-20, however, effectively trapped the F-35 in a corner, and with the J-35, China hammered in a substantial nail into the fence. Now, with the emergence of China’s sixth-generation fighter jet, it has completely subverted the U.S. Air Force’s understanding of future aerial combat.

Interestingly, it was actually the U.S. Air Force that first proposed the concept of the sixth-generation fighter. But when it comes to developing a sixth-gen fighter, they were shocked by the whopping costs of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. Before China’s sixth-generation fighter jets emerged, the U.S. Air Force could at least imagine a “F-35 vs. J-20” scenario. They could think about how to define their underwhelming fighter as a 6th generation model, and consider ways to leave room for upgrades to avoid the embarrassment of being overtaken right after its release. But now, none of that seems to matter anymore. Here is the catch: Where is America’s sixth-generation fighter now?

On September 9, 1964, the Soviet Union successful flight its prototype of the MiG-25. On July 6, 1967, four MiG-25s roared through the Domodedovo airshow, sending shockwaves through the U.S. military. At that time, the U.S. Air Force desperately needed a new air superiority fighter.

The MiG-25 is a supersonic interceptor and reconnaissance aircraft that is among the fastest military aircraft to enter service, which is designed by the Soviet Union’s Mikoyan-Gurevich bureau.

In 1969, the U.S. Air Force selected McDonnell Douglas’ design and initiated the development of the F-15. The aircraft made its maiden flight in July 1972 and entered service in 1976. On April 27, 1977, the 53rd Tactical Fighter Squadron of the U.S. Air Force took off from Langley, with a brand-new fleet of F-15s soaring across the Atlantic. They landed at Bitburg Air Base in West Germany, where the F-15 would dominate the air defense of Central Europe for decades, until the end of the Cold War.

The F-15 Eagle is an American twin-engine, all-weather fighter aircraft designed by McDonnell Douglas.

The U.S. took a decade to rebuild its air superiority during the Cold War, competing with the Soviet Union. However, it seems increasingly unlikely for the U.S. to replicate that feat in today’s competition with China. The reason lies in the fact that the U.S. has dominated aerospace technology since the Cold War, but it has been comfortably resting in that position for far too long. China’s rapid advancements in fighter jet technology have caught the U.S. off guard. Even if Congress were to approve funding immediately, the real question is whether the U.S. aerospace industry can respond quickly enough to counter China’s latest fighter jets?

In the heyday of the U.S. aerospace industry, there were numerous fighter jet companies with rich design experience and established production capabilities and supply chains. During the 1969 F-X competition, General Dynamics, Fairchild Republic, North American Rockwell, and McDonnell Douglas all submitted design proposals. Ultimately, McDonnell Douglas’ design was selected.

General Dynamics, for example, developed the F-111, as well as the earlier F-102 and F-106 interceptors. Fairchild Republic produced the F-84 and F-105, and also the famous P-47 from World War II. North American Rockwell dominated the 1950s, producing the F-86, F-100, and the iconic P-51 Mustang.

The North American Aviation P-51 Mustang is an American long-range, single-seat fighter and fighter-bomber used during World War II.

McDonnell Douglas, which only entered the fighter jet manufacturing industry post-WWII, may not have had as much legacy, but it successfully caught the first wave of the jet age. Starting with the Navy’s F2H and F3H, McDonnell Douglas reached its peak with the F-4 Phantom, a classic of the 1960s. The F-15 marked McDonnell Douglas’ moment of “moving from victory to new victory,” and later, the F/A-18 became the company’s last major fighter jet. The company was eventually acquired by Boeing in 1997, and the McDonnell Douglas name was lost in the process.

The F-4 Phantom II is an American tandem two-seat, twin-engine, all-weather, long-range supersonic jet interceptor and fighter-bomber that was developed by McDonnell Aircraft for the United States Navy.

Today, only Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing still possess fighter jet design and manufacturing capabilities. Among them, Lockheed Martin is the only one to have introduced entirely new designs in the past 30 years, while Boeing is still relying on the legacy designs of McDonnell Douglas, and Northrop Grumman’s fighter jet design capabilities are more theoretical than practical.

Byond a lack of competition, today’s U.S. aerospace industry also faces the risks of developing a fixed mindset and getting stuck in rigid thinking. This is because the military needs external experts to provide independent evaluations when it comes to technology, manufacturing, maintenance, and cost control. During the Advanced Tactical Fighter (ATF) program, which eventually produced the F-22, the U.S. still had plenty of fighter jet companies, and the Air Force had enough external resources to rely on. For instance, although North American Rockwell was not selected as a producer, its chief designer was still seconded to the Air Force’s evaluation team.

But today, Boeing and Northrop Grumman have not designed a new fighter jet in over 30 years. Lockheed Martin’s F-35 has become a textbook example of what not to do, with its own set of problems and lessons. Finding independent evaluation experts has become increasingly difficult.

Manufacturing capacity is also a key challenge for the U.S. Today, production of the F-35 continues to be hindered by supply chain, affecting all variants—A, B, and C. The problem of military production bottlenecks is not limited to aviation. The construction of the “Virginia” class nuclear submarines has also faced numerous setbacks, with the U.S. Navy having to decline additional funding from Congress. Even the most basic ammunition production is facing capacity constraints, leaving Ukrainian artillery units anxiously waiting for shells.

After China’s successful test flight of its sixth-generation fighter jet, the U.S. now has a clear target to catch up with. However, the question is whether the U.S. still have the ability to do so？

At the turn of the 21st century, China’s military modernization was starting to show results, but the U.S. was confident it still held a significant lead. Because, at that time, the F-22 was already in service, the F-35 was just around the corner, and unmanned combat aircraft were being developed. The B-2 was the undisputed most advanced stealth bomber, and air superiority was seen as the key to overcoming China’s “Anti-Access/Area Denial” (A2/AD) strategy. In 2010, the U.S. formally introduced the “Air-Sea Battle” concept, which centered on using stealth, long-range manned and unmanned aircraft to penetrate China’s defenses. Supported by air-launched and sea-based cruise missiles, this strategy aimed to destroy key nodes, target mobile strike platforms, and ultimately shake the foundations of China’s A2/AD system, thereby destroying its warfighting capabilities. Yet, less than a decade later, this concept seems outdated, and no one talks about it anymore.

In fact, during World War II, the U.S. military also faced challenges when it didn’t hold a technological advantage. Early in the war, Japan’s Zero fighter posed a significant threat to the U.S. Navy. Similarly, the U.S. Army Air Forces (which later became the independent U.S. Air Force) faced difficulties when its P-47 went up against Germany’s Me-109 and FW-190 fighters.

However, during the World War II era, the United States was rapidly advancing. Not only was its engineering and manufacturing capacity incredibly strong, but it also had a broad spectrum of capabilities. The Japanese Zero fighter was almost an accident, and after that, Japan had no other notable achievements in air combat—being surpassed by the U.S. was just a matter of time. Additionally, although Germany was more advanced, balanced, and sustainable than Japan, it had the counterbalance of Britain.

Today, however, the situation is different. Deindustrialization has a profound impact on the U.S. According to a report from the New York Federal Reserve on February 24, the unemployment rate for aerospace graduates in the U.S. was surprisingly high, ranking fourth at 7.8%. This figure was just behind those in fields like Art History, Literature, and Fine Arts, but ahead of graduates in History, English, Media, Physics, Industrial Design, and Sociology.

China, on the other hand, is steadily rising. Over the past 30 years, even without considering the deep upgrades to existing models like the J-15 and J-16, China has rolled out entirely new fighter jets, such as the J-10, J-20, and J-35. And now, China has developed two types of sixth-generation fighter jets.

China publicly unveiled its J-35A at this year’s air show.

China’s rise is comprehensive. It leads the world in the new economy driven by technology, with mobile payments becoming ubiquitous, the low-altitude economy gaining traction, and “dark factories” spreading quietly. While these may not directly relate to aerospace technology, they are all part of the broader foundation that supports its growth.

China’s test flight of its sixth-generation fighter jet marks a significant departure from the “Sputnik moment.” The latter was merely a shock to the U.S., as the Soviet Union caught up unexpectedly. The former, however, represents a crucial turning point where the roles of the U.S. and China are reversing.

From a military perspective, China’s sixth-generation fighter has a significant impact. During the gap in the U.S.’s sixth-generation fighter program, America’s longstanding military doctrine—relying on air superiority—becomes untenable. Without reliable air superiority, can the U.S. still win wars?

For China, the situation is different. With world-leading capabilities in ballistic missiles and hypersonic missile strike power, air superiority becomes not only feasible but also a reliable option. In the “Sputnik moment,” the ICBM was a symbolic deterrent—useful in theory, but not practically effective. China’s air power, on the other hand, is entirely realistic, operational, and sustainable. The strategic importance of this shift cannot be overstated.