Trump’s Tariffs Make Chinese Agriculture Great Again

On April 8, Trump launched an extra 50% tariffs on China, causing global stock markets to plummet further. In contrast, China’s agricultural sector surged against the trend, with over 20 agricultural stocks hitting the daily limit-up and 8 soaring by more than 20%. By April 9, many companies maintained gains exceeding 10%.  

The performance of China’s agricultural stocks demonstrates the effectiveness of Beijing’s countermeasures against Trump’s tariffs. On April 4, China’s Ministry of Commerce swiftly imposed retaliatory 34% tariffs on U.S. products, with American agricultural goods bearing the brunt. The New York Times acknowledged this would hit hard, because according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 14% of U.S. agricultural exports in 2024 went to China, totalling over $27 billion.

Take soybean as an example, a February 2025 report by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service noted that China imports 60% of the world’s soybeans. China’s dominance in soybean trade continues to grow: Reuters reported that in 2024, China’s soybean imports hit a record 105 million tons, up 6.5% year-on-year.  

China’s massive soybean imports stem from its position as the world’s largest livestock producer. Soybean typically accounts for 20% of animal feed due to its high protein content, which enhances meat quality and yield. However, with limited arable land per capita, China prioritizes staple crops like rice and wheat, that’s why China historically relying on U.S. soybean imports.

However, now, two developments are reducing this dependency and even turning the tables on the U.S.

The first is a breakthroughs in China’s agricultural technology.  

CCTV reported on March 13 that China is developing high-protein corn varieties. Ordinary corn has about 8% protein content, but China’s new varieties reach 10%. This 2% increase is significant: China produces nearly 300 million tons of corn annually, 70% of which is used for feed. Each percentage point increase in corn protein can help China to reduce annual soybean imports by 8 million tons.

Currently, China’s high-protein corn has already been planted across 10 million mu, about 1.6 million acres. Professor Zhan Junpeng from Huazhong Agricultural University explained that this corn could replace soybeans in feed.  

10% is not the ceiling. A Chinese Academy of Sciences report reveals that the breakthrough stems from genes of teosinte, corn’s ancestor, which boasts 30% protein content. Over time, Western agricultural firms prioritized starch accumulation, causing corn to lose its high-protein genes. Now, Chinese scientists are reviving these traits, aiming for 12% and 15% protein levels.

Additionally, China is promoting alfalfa cultivation. Though lower in protein than soybeans, alfalfa grows faster. The purple alfalfa matures in just 25 days, allowing it to be planted after wheat or rice harvests without compromising staple crop security. Research by Professor Shi Yinghua of Henan Agricultural University shows alfalfa not only serves as a protein source but also improves swine reproductive performance, boosting livestock profitability. Other major livestock producers, like Spain, are also exploring alfalfa as a soybean alternative.  

Secondly, Brazil Emerges as a More Reliable Supplier

After China’s retaliatory tariffs were announced, Carlos Mera, head of Agricultural Market Research at Rabobank, told Reuters “Brazil will be by far the main beneficiary, the biggest supplier that can replace U.S. soybeans to China. But others could benefit too, including Argentina and Paraguay. On wheat Australia and Argentina should benefit,”

Crucially, China’s investment in Peru’s Chancay Port has slashed shipping times between South America and China by at least 10 days. Supporting tunnels and highways further streamline the transport of Brazilian soybeans, timber, and minerals to China. The port reduces preservation and fuel costs, making Brazilian soybeans more price-competitive in China.  

As fellow BRICS members, Brazil and China also enjoy greater political stability in trade. Reuters notes that since 2016, China’s soybean imports from the U.S. have plummeted from 40% to 18%, while Brazil’s share surged from 46% to 74%. With Trump doubling down on tariffs, this shift will accelerate.  

In conclusion, through domestic innovation and cooperation with other global south countries, China is steadily reducing reliance on U.S. soybeans. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff wars once again leave American farmers paying the price. Investigate Midwest observes this echoes the fallout from Trump’s last trade war.

As China’s Ministry of Commerce stated on April 9: “History repeatedly proves that protectionism fails to improve a nation’s economy,” “No country will abandon its legitimate development interests to appease unreasonable demands, but this does not preclude resolving differences through equal dialogue.”

Editor: Charriot Zhai