Trump Wants to “Join Forces with Russia Against China,” But It’s Not That Easy
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed on the evening of the 12th that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump held a phone conversation lasting nearly an hour and a half on that day. During the call, Putin emphasized to Trump the need to address the root causes of the Ukraine crisis and also agreed with Trump’s view of achieving a long-term resolution through negotiations. Trump said the conversation was “productive” and asserted the need to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict swiftly.
The author believes that although both Putin and Trump have the desire to end the conflict, there are differences in their positions. Putin has clearly stated that before peace talks can be initiated, the US, the West, and Ukraine must accept two conditions. Firstly, Ukraine must never join NATO in both legal and factual terms, and it must become a truly neutral country. Secondly, the West and Ukraine must accept the permanent loss of Crimea and the four regions in eastern Ukraine.
On December 22, 2024, Russian soldiers at the front line in Pokrovsk. (Image source: Visual China)
However, these conditions are unlikely to be accepted by Zelensky, and Trump may also be reluctant to agree. Trump seeks to “ally with Russia to counter China” in order to extricate from the Russia-Ukraine battlefield as quickly as possible. Nonetheless, numerous structural contradictions exist between the US and Russia, as Trump is surrounded by a group of “hawks,” making it challenging for both parties to reach a peace agreement. As neighbors across the Bering Strait, both the US and Russia have tendencies toward expansionism and have rather tough characters, often taking hardline stances against one another. Furthermore, both countries hold Cold War memories, with strong anti-Russian sentiments prevailing in the US. Many of Trump’s associates harbor a fear of Russia and may not necessarily wish for a swift end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Moreover, if the US and Russia reconcile, Europe might lose confidence in the US, necessitating careful assessment of the importance of Europe and Russia to themselves.
Additionally, Sino-US relations are a key factor. If Sino-US relations deteriorate further, Trump may be eager to make concessions to Russia to counter China; if relations remain stable, Trump may hesitate and reject some Russian demands. From this perspective, the possibility of achieving a peace agreement among Russia, the US, and Ukraine largely depends on the trajectory of Sino-US relations.
For Russia, the Ukraine issue is critical, concerning its very survival. First, as part of the Eastern Slavs, Russia and Ukraine share a fraternal bond, which, if transformed into enmity, is highly detrimental to Russia. Secondly, Ukraine is a vital passageway for Russia’s integration into Europe. Losing Ukraine would deprive Russia of any influence in European affairs, dashing its national aspirations. While Russian elites and populace hold a special affection for the East, they have long dreamed of integrating into the European family. Losing Ukraine would leave Russia isolated. Lastly, border security is also pivotal, as the Russia-Ukraine border is very close to Moscow, the Russian capital, which poses a significant threat to Russia’s national security interests if Ukraine is adversarial.
From Russia’s standpoint, Ukraine must not join NATO, nor pose a threat to Russia’s security. However, the US and the West are not willing to rule out the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO and are providing substantial security guarantees to Ukraine. This represents a fundamental and irreconcilable conflict. If the US, the West, and Ukraine do not meet Russia’s conditions, Russia may continue to fight until the opposing side agrees. Even if Russia were to make concessions and a ceasefire agreement was reached, relations among Russia, the West, and Ukraine would likely continue to deteriorate, with potential for future conflict.
Ukrainian President Zelensky and former NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg. (Image source: Bloomberg)
In conclusion, while both the US and Russia currently have the willingness to reconcile, there are many objective restrictions. It is not easy for Russia to achieve a genuine peace agreement with the US, the West, and Ukraine.
Finally, let’s discuss Sino-Russian relations. There is concern that if Trump successfully achieves US-Russia reconciliation, he will “ally with Russia to counter China.” The author believes Trump indeed has such intentions and is taking action, but there is no need for concern.
Sino-Russian friendly relations are determined by the national interests of both parties. If Sino-Russian relations become tense, the over ten thousand kilometers long border will be unstable, which is extremely disadvantageous for both sides. Additionally, China and Russia possess strong economic complementarities, with Russia having abundant energy resources and China boasting a powerful manufacturing sector, creating vast space for cooperation. Therefore, friendly relations between China and Russia are a necessary choice based on their development needs.
Of course, the US factor also influences Sino-Russian relations. The US’s “dual containment” policy against China and Russia encourages increased cooperation between China and Russia to a certain extent.
In summary, the friendly relationship between China and Russia has inherent logic. Despite Trump’s amiable relationship with Putin and attempts to woo Russia, Putin understands the stakes and will not get close to the US just because of Trump’s goodwill. After all, Trump’s term is only four years, whereas China will always be Russia’s neighbor. Friendly Sino-Russian relations are in both parties’ long-term interests.
Editor: Zhongxiaowen
