How Would Mao Zedong Cope With Trump?

As Chinese people watched the tariff war spiral out of control, there is one person they suddenly feel nostalgic for—Chairman Mao. There’s a consensus in China that, among all leaders, Mao knew best how to handle the United States.

In the collective memory of the Chinese people, Mao is credited with pushing back U.S. forces during the Korean war and securing a safe external environment for China to develop its economy, pivotal for the newly-established socialist country.

Never has a piece of his advice seemed more relevant. Below are some of Mao’s most popular strategies, frequently quoted in academic forums, discussed on the Chinese internet, and even featured in trending merchandise

“Throw one punch to prevent a hundred blows”

A catchy phrase Mao Zedong used as his rationale for sending troops to Korea peninsula is now frequently referenced on Chinese social media during discussions of the ongoing tariff war.

Public opinion in China was divided when Trump first launched the trade war in 2018. Many questioned whether China, to some extent, deserve the punishment—was it aggressive “wolf warrior diplomacy” or supposedly violations of trade rules that provoked the U.S.? -typical of Confucian self-reflection.

Such voices of appeasement have now naturally faded, as years of trade wars, high-tech blockades, and even political persecution of Chinese scientists in the U.S. have shattered lingering illusions about the legitimacy of US’s actions. A broad consensus has formed across Chinese society: the U.S.’s strategic containment of China cannot be altered by any one-sided overture of goodwill. When China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi said this to US officials in 2021 — ‘We thought too well of you’ — the remark quickly appeared on many people’s T-shirts and phone cases.

Most Chinese have now come to the conclusion that given China’s size and economic heft, caving to the U.S. pressure is simply not an option. Plus, China now holds far more cards than it did during Trump’s first term.

In 2018, China faced critical technology bottlenecks in 35 areas, including lithography machines, semiconductors, tactile sensors, and components for medical imaging equipment. By 2025, China is expected to have overcome at least 85% of these bottlenecks.

Additionally, China’s macroeconomic landscape has shifted significantly since Trump’s first term. Exports now account for less than 20% of China’s GDP, with exports to the U.S. representing only 14.7% of total exports—a 4.5 percentage point drop compared to 2018 when they made up 19.2%.

Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)- China

While pressure is now indeed mounting on exporters, it is domestic stock market investors who are now bearing the brunt of the impact from this round of tariff war. On April 7, over 3,000 shares in China’s A-share stock market hit their limit-down levels and the Growth Enterprise Market Index plummeting by 12.5%.

The Korean War, known in China as “the war to resist US aggressors and aid Korea in defending the motherland”, once again appeared in public discourse. The slogan “Every generation has its own Battle of Shanggangling” became popular among people trying to boost morale-Shanggangling was a grueling battle in the Korean War that the Chinese army won. Since then, Shanggangling has become a symbol of perseverance in the face of hardship. Tariff war might be bloody, but it’s not invincible.

“We will fight as long as they want to fight, and fight on until complete victory is achieved”

This statement was made by Mao Zedong in February 1953, when no sign of armistice was on the horizon.

The Chinese Embassy in the U.S. echoed this sentiment in a tweet in early March: “If the U.S. truly wants to solve the fentanyl issue, the right thing to do is to consult with China by treating each other as equals. If war is what the U.S. wants—be it a tariff war, a trade war, or any other type of war—we’re ready to fight till the end.”

The most recent “war mobilization” from China’s leadership came from Chinese Premier Li Qiang who met with private business leaders yesterday, saying that: “ I urge entrepreneurs to cultivate a deep sense of national responsibility, adapt proactively, and strengthen their enterprises, contributing to the country’s development.”

A sense of wartime solidarity is quietly manifesting itself. Chinese company Jinhe Biotech, the world’s largest producer of veterinary-grade chlortetracycline-a core growth promoter essential to the U.S. livestock industry-has recently announced plans to increase the price of its products in the U.S..

In addition，to stabilize the stock market, hundreds of publicly traded companies, including CATL, Midea, and Kweichow Moutai, have announced share buybacks or significant shareholder investments, injecting over 10 billion yuan to bolster investor confidence. Today, the A-shares market finally received good news, opening with gains across the board as all three major indexes rose.

Guerrilla Warfare When Outnumbered

In Mao Zedong’s book “On Guerrilla Warfare”, he famously wrote “when guerrillas engage a stronger enemy, they withdraw when he advances; harass him when he stops; strike him when he is weary; pursue him when he withdraws.”In other words, every move should be a carefully calculated response to your enemy’s move. Nothing is preordained. Chinese stakeholders have long considered the following three scenarios:

• Scenario 1: If all nations stand firm against the U.S., its supply chains could be severely disrupted.
• Scenario 2: If some resist while others compromise, the markets of resisting nations could be taken over by those who capitulate.
• Scenario 3: If all nation concede, the U.S. might achieve a short-term victory, but the possibility of second and third rounds of conflict remain.

Reality seems to be aligning with the second scenario. Yesterday, the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs of 25%, prompting Trump to backtrack on tariffs for most nations within hours, granting a 90-day reprieve.

What’s China’s next move then? If Chin becomes the target of Trump’s highest tariffs, Chinese companies will most likely find ways to circumvent costs—whether by rerouting trade or establishing overseas factories, and this aligns with China’s “go global” policy anyway.

This is not the first time China’s exports have faced a difficult situation. As a member of the Gen Z who grew up in mainland China, I vividly remember seeing on TV news about Chinese companies facing anti-dumping measures and various sanctions abroad. China knows the art of adapting by heart-a knee jerk reaction that has protected Chinese companies back then and will continue to do so now.

Conclusion

To withstand all the turmoil and confusion generated by Trump, Chinese people turn to its reservoir of collective memory for both strength and guidance. In the 1980s, people used to look to the U.S. for lessons during times of loss. They now choose to open Mao Zedong’s Quotations. Chinese youth no longer see it as the beacon of democracy, or frankly, as the beacon of anything at all.

(A meme that gained popularity after California Governor Gavin Newsom stated that U.S. tariff policies do not represent the will of the American people.)

Editor: huyueyue