Chinese Youth to Develop Africa: A Mutual Salvation
The Age of Overcapacity
Currently, the topic of “overcapacity” is a hot take. Indeed, if we analyze only developed economies and China as subjects of study, “overcapacity” is likely a true proposition. In developed countries, the past half-century has seen an agricultural revolution. With the rise of advanced technologies and large-scale mechanization, each agricultural worker can now manage thousands of acres using machinery. Today, combined harvesters and agricultural drones have freed most people from the constraints of farming.
In developed economies, industrial manufacturing is gradually reaching a similar stage. First, manual laborers in factories are being replaced by automated robotic production lines. With the rapid rise of AI technology, machines are now quickly taking over routine intellectual tasks as well.
In the past, workers could joke, “If things get really tough, I’ll just go work in a factory screwing bolts.” But that joke no longer holds. Soon, there will be no factories where you can do that—robotic arms have taken over. A handful of engineers can now manage a massive “lights-off factory,” producing industrial goods for millions of people. This scene is gradually becoming a reality.
Baosteel’s cold rolling mill intelligent workshop in Shanghai, known as the “lights-off factory”
The current overcapacity in material production differs from the “paradoxical overproduction” of Marx’s era. In the 19th century, “overproduction” was largely due to the unequal distribution. Productive capacity did not meet everyone’s material needs, and widespread poverty led to insufficient demand. At that time, as old industries and jobs disappeared, new industries and employment opportunities were constantly emerging. The pace of both was generally in sync with each other.
However, today’s situation is quite different from the 19th century. While various forms of inequality still exist in the world, productivity has reached a highly advanced level. Whether in agriculture or industry, the production efficiency of essential goods—those necessary for human life and not luxury items or bespoke services—has reached a high level. Meeting the needs of the global population is no longer a problem.
Due to high levels of automation, the labor required to produce these goods is now far below the number of people suited for work. Additionally, with the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, old jobs are disappearing at a pace that new job creation cannot keep up with. In this sense, the overcapacity occurring in today’s developed economies represents an absolute surplus—what could be termed “true overcapacity.”
The Surplus of Value Transmission
Transformations in the material realm gradually extend to the social, cultural, and value dimensions over time. The impact of material overcapacity on culture is that material producers become increasingly undervalued and disrespected. This is not because material production is no longer important, but because material scarcity has diminished, making material producers highly replaceable. It’s akin to how air is far more crucial to humans than gold, yet gold is expensive while air is free. The small number of workers involved in material production and their high replaceability result in material producers being regarded with the same indifference as air.
On the Chinese internet, a typical consequence of overcapacity is the rise of “discouragement from certain fields” or “discouragement studies.” This phenomenon involves experienced professionals revealing the harsh job prospects of a particular industry to outsiders and new students, including low income, limited growth opportunities, and poor working conditions. The aim is to dissuade newcomers from entering or to encourage them to switch fields. This trend began in the early 2000s with the field of biology, then gradually expanded to chemistry, materials science, environmental science, and other challenging STEM disciplines. By around 2015, it extended to hard-working fields like civil engineering and mechanical engineering, and eventually to all “traditional engineering disciplines.” In recent years, even the once-dominant field of computer science has not escaped this trend, especially with the recent wave of mass layoffs in the tech industry.
In the past decade, biology, chemistry, materials science, and environmental science have been rated by Chinese university students as the four majors with the most challenging job prospects after graduation.
In 2024, a popular job choice for many Chinese people is taking civil service exams., which has kept disciplines like law in demand for now. However, how many people can the civil service truly employ? It’s a reality that most participants are destined to be runners-up. The discouragement in one or two disciplines may reflect specific industry problems, perhaps due to a lag in higher education reform and a temporary mismatch between educational resources and labor market demand. However, if all disciplines are facing discouragement, it likely signals a broader issue within the entire job market. Or perhaps it isn’t that the job market is “wrong,” but that society has simply evolved to this point.
In previous years, Chinese netizens often mocked the “baizuo” in developed Western countries, accusing them of ignoring material production and being absorbed in “useless issues” like race, gender minorities, and ideological conflicts. They joked that these people were part of a generation that believed food simply grew on supermarket shelves. However, Chinese people can criticize the absurdity of such a social mindset, they must also acknowledge that this kind of societal structure may be an inevitable result of material abundance.
Definition of “baizuo”
With the significant advancement of productivity, most people in developed economies can indeed go through life—from cradle to grave—without ever being involved in the production of essential goods, merely consuming them. In the United States, food is even distributed daily to homeless people who don’t participate in labor. Although these provisions are essentially the leftovers of large-scale industrial production, with unappealing taste and appearance, they are more than sufficient to sustain life. In such an environment, it is hardly surprising that society comes to take material supply for granted, viewing material producers with disdain or even ignoring them, while turning its attention to activities that contribute nothing to material production.
With China’s rapid economic growth and the swift rise in industrialization, Chinese society is also trending in this direction. It’s not just about food—other essential consumer goods, such as clothing, daily necessities, small appliances, and even larger items like cars, are quite affordable if you focus solely on their functionality and practicality, without concern for brand names. Meeting basic living needs has become a relatively low bar to clear.
In this context, it is inevitable that most people’s focus will shift away from survival issues and toward matters beyond basic needs. These concerns manifest differently in various countries and cultures. In the U.S., it’s about race and LGBT issues; in China, it’s about the “topmost ones” and the “involution” phenomenon. The common thread is that these issues won’t fade away with further economic growth or continued advances in productivity. Racial differences will always exist, and the concept of being a “topmost one” is inherently relative. In other words, this is a long, never-ending game that society will continue to play.
This explains why concepts like the “small-town swots” and “involution” resonate with more and more young people in China today. In this era of overcapacity, many individuals who have been trained as material producers are gradually realizing that they are no longer truly needed by society. Against this backdrop, if they continue to adhere to the traditional values of “work–save–get rich” to guide their life choices, they will inevitably find themselves redundant in society, becoming people who need to be accommodated through government-sponsored labor projects.
In today’s world, what is scarce is no longer material value but emotional value. Live-streaming stunts or begging in the U.S. online can provide more social utility than factory work or repetitive scientific research. Accordingly, the monetary rewards for those who offer emotional value are naturally far greater than those for so-called “small-town swots,” who seek to participate in material production but cannot. Internet clowns are in high demand, gaining both fame and fortune, while laborers skilled only in material production have become redundant. This is a social issue that developed economies today must confront.
The Fake Overcapacity
However, does the “overcapacity” mentioned above truly define this era? If we broaden our perspective beyond the developed economies in front of us and look at the entire human society, we uncover the deceptive nature behind this so-called “overcapacity.” While 3 billion people living in more developed economies are troubled by the problems of overproduction, another 5 billion are still struggling with the scarcity of basic survival resources. In most regions of the world, people lack essential living facilities, including food, clothing, sufficient electricity, clean drinking water, basic healthcare, and education.
Having worked and lived in Africa for three years, I often feel a deep sense of guilt when I encounter the concept of “overcapacity” on the internet. I am frequently reminded that my sense of responsibility toward more than half of humanity—those struggling with scarcity—has not been strong enough.
The author Cao Fengze, a Chinese young engineer in Africa for a Chinese enterprise, at the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant in Tanzania
From a purely technical perspective, there should be no significant barriers to accessing the resources mentioned above. Africa has vast expanses of arable land, and technologies for agricultural machinery, fertilizers, and high-yield seeds have long been mature in developed countries. Yet, in reality, these lands remain underutilized, and hundreds of millions of Africans continue to suffer from chronic hunger.
In Africa, there are numerous river valleys ideal for constructing hydroelectric power stations. Using 20th-century technology, it would be easy to build hydropower plants along with electricity and water supply systems, without encountering any “chokepoint” technologies. However, in reality, more than half of Africa’s population lacks access to electricity in their daily lives, while at the same time, electricity worth billions of dollars is wasted across the continent every day.
Many of the diseases afflicting Africans are common and easily treatable. With simple diagnoses and proper medication, these illnesses could be managed effectively. Leaving aside complex or rare conditions, the marginal cost of producing most medications for treating common diseases is quite low. If these drugs could be distributed regularly, they would alleviate the suffering of a significant portion of Africa’s population. However, the reality is that most African patients remain trapped in a healthcare crisis, unable to access adequate medical care or medication, helpless in the face of their pain.
A mpox treatment camp for internally displaced people in the Democratic Republic of Congo
When more than half of humanity still faces a shortage of survival resources, we are hardly in a position to casually discuss “overcapacity.” While overcapacity in developed economies may indeed be real within their own contexts, on a global scale, it is undeniably a false proposition. From this perspective, Marx’s theory of insufficient effective demand remains relevant today. However, the focus has shifted from people within developed economies to the world’s different sovereign entities. The postmodern behaviors triggered by overcapacity among the 3 billion people in developed economies may seem understandable at first glance, but when contrasted with the absolute poverty of the 5 billion in the developing world, it becomes absurd.
Barriers Beyond Technology
In today’s world, where productivity is highly advanced, how does absolute poverty still exist across much of the globe? I believe the issue does not lie in technology or productivity itself, but rather in factors beyond technology—specifically in the realm of production relations.
Firstly, in today’s world, the possession of survival resources and the need for them are separated. A few developed countries possess the capacity to produce material wealth, and consequently, they also hold the power to distribute it. In many Third World countries, especially those in Africa, there is an urgent demand for survival resources, but because these nations do not directly control the means of production, they cannot determine societal production or shape their own destiny. In most African countries, the elite and ruling groups are often heavily dependent on Western developed nations, particularly their former colonial powers. These elites assist the former colonial powers in extracting resources such as minerals from their own countries. The former colonial powers gain the primary benefits, while the elites receive secondary benefits. In return, the former colonial powers provide protection and support for these elites and ruling groups.
Kenyan President William Ruto with US President Joe Biden
When their reign ends, they often choose to migrate to these former colonial powers with their wealth. Although colonialism no longer exists in name, the relationship continues through established patterns. This wealth, whether it ends up in the hands of the former colonial powers or the domestic elites, fails to become national wealth, thus not contributing to the country’s reproduction cycle. Consequently, it cannot be used to meet the survival and development needs of ordinary citizens.
Objectively speaking, former colonial powers or, more broadly, Western developed countries do provide aid to Third World nations, especially those in Africa. Every year, the international community allocates considerable sums for aid to African countries, including food, industrial goods, and pharmaceuticals. The range of aid is indeed extensive.
However, in reality, this aid often has little positive impact on Africa, and in some cases, it can even be counterproductive. The root cause lies in Africa’s severe lack of material production capabilities. The aid provided typically consists of industrial end-products, which cannot be transformed into the means of production for further reproduction. At the same time, African countries generally have very high birth rates. Without sufficient employment opportunities and education, these high birth rates are difficult to control.
As a result, the influx of aid often serves to further inflate Africa’s population, without contributing to meaningful social progress. The more the population grows, the greater the need for aid; the more aid provided, the larger the population grows.
Africa lacks the ability to generate its own resources independently and must continually rely on external assistance. This vicious cycle prevents any fundamental improvement in the living conditions of the African people. Moreover, the fragile domestic industries that Africa has painstakingly built are often overwhelmed by the influx of foreign aid, which can undermine their development and further entrench the continent’s dependence on external support.
Africa needs far more than just end products; it requires foundational industrial production capabilities such as infrastructure, electricity, industrial facilities, and basic education. Only through these fundamental investments can Africans become active participants in the modern industrial cycle, rather than merely recipients of aid. Modern education and employment opportunities can cultivate a modern mindset, inspire aspirations for contemporary living, and enhance the subjective initiative to take control of one’s life. These elements are crucial for Africa’s progression towards modernization. In the long run, systematic industrial investments in Africa will yield returns for investors that far surpass the benefits of simply selling industrial products.
Some argue that the substantial aid in the form of end-products provided to Africa each year is a scheme by Western multinational corporations to stifle emerging industries in Africa and maintain their own industrial dominance. Others believe that intentionally suppressing African industries is meaningless for these corporations and that such conspiracy theories are unfounded. Regardless of the underlying truth, the reality is that aid has detrimental effects on Africa’s economy.
China, with its capacity to help, undoubtedly has a responsibility to address this situation. This responsibility aligns with both the long-term interests of humanity and commercial rationality.
One of the reasons why Third World countries, exemplified by Africa, remain mired in poverty is the lack of modern organizational models. Take the issue of inadequate medical supplies in Africa, for instance. The medications needed to treat common diseases are not expensive in themselves. While transporting these drugs from manufacturers to the capitals of various African countries is relatively low-cost, the challenge lies in distributing them effectively to those in need.
Several critical questions arise: Which organizations will be responsible for this distribution? How will corruption during the distribution process be managed? Treating common diseases may not require many specialized doctors, but a large number of health workers with basic medical knowledge are essential. Where will these workers come from? How will trust in modern medicine be established among populations that initially distrust it? Even if common diseases are temporarily treated, what steps will be taken to educate people on disease prevention?
These issues are far more complex than simply distributing medication. Addressing these questions requires a comprehensive approach that goes beyond mere logistics, involving significant efforts in building trust, training personnel, and creating effective distribution networks.
For instance, many African villages lack wells, making water extraction extremely challenging. The primary daily task for women in these villages is to carry water buckets to nearby rivers, often making the trip multiple times a day. In some villages, the distance to water sources is so great that a round trip takes several hours, yet this repetitive task is accepted as part of daily life without question. Even when conditions objectively allow for drilling wells, the idea is rarely considered.
In a relatively well-off village close to a Chinese development project, villagers received financial support, and many worked on the project to earn wages. Except for using some of the wages to build brick houses, they did not think to invest in a well. I have even observed villages that, with the aid of external organizations, had wells drilled but failed to maintain or clean them, leading to rapid abandonment. It seems that spending hours each day fetching water from the river has become a ritualistic practice with almost theological significance, rather than a problem to be solved.
Villagers fetching water from the borehole at Rwanda funded by China
Some Chinese visitors to Africa may see the lack of well maintenance and the neglect of existing wells as a sign of laziness among Africans. However, if laziness were truly the issue, one would expect that maintaining a well to avoid the daily trek to the river would be a priority. In reality, this perceived laziness often stems from a deeper issue: a lack of awareness and understanding.
The concept of why wells are necessary, why they need maintenance, and how to save time and effort from fetching water is not always intuitive to those who have never been exposed to such practices. This lack of awareness and understanding is the core issue in African societies. It reflects a broader challenge of developing a mindset that values and utilizes modern solutions for everyday problems. Addressing this awareness gap is crucial for fostering meaningful progress and improving living conditions in these communities.
To guide people toward embracing modern lifestyles, education must progressively spread awareness, a process that is inherently lengthy and gradual. Building a single well involves numerous challenges, and the complexities increase significantly with larger projects like hydropower stations or railways. The obstacles in these projects often extend beyond technical issues, creating barriers that can deter private investment. In Africa, the greatest hurdles to achieving significant progress are not just technical but involve overcoming substantial non-technical challenges.
Compared to its neighboring countries, Tanzania’s modernization process has been relatively smooth. This success can be largely attributed to the establishment of functional grassroots organizations during President Nyerere’s era. Although these organizations may not have been perfect or all-encompassing and faced some issues in implementation, they effectively integrated the majority of Tanzania’s population into the state’s governance framework. With this foundation, the state’s actions and policies could be communicated down to the grassroots level, allowing for a gradual approach to solving governance problems instead of being completely stymied.
Mao Zedong, The First President of China, with Julius Nyerere, the First President of Tanzania
In underdeveloped countries, the lack of direct control over production resources, combined with the detrimental effects of aid in the form of end products, and the absence of modern organizational models, collectively contribute to the current paradox of material overcapacity and scarcity. On one side, extreme material wealth in developed economies has led people to lose interest in material progress, redirecting their energy and productivity into post-modern issues like race, gender, and “involution.” On the other side, extreme lag in productivity traps people in less developed economies in pre-modern conditions, struggling even for basic survival. The link between these two extremes—industrial diffusion, capital flow, and practical efforts in production and distribution—remains obstructed for various reasons.
Attempts to Solve the Problem
In the face of such an unjust situation, what should we do? I believe this is a long and arduous challenge. The formation of this extreme polarization is not the responsibility of any individual; its roots lie in the broader context of capitalist globalization. Our first step must be to firmly resolve to coexist and fight against this injustice over the long term.
At the national level, China is steadily advancing this effort. As someone who has personally experienced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it seems to me that the various measures and attempts under the BRI are striving to bridge these two extremes. It does not aim to eliminate global poverty and underdevelopment within a few years or even a generation but rather seeks to gradually link the two poles. By leveraging the production capacity of developed economies, it aims to help underdeveloped economies navigate their crises and enter a virtuous economic cycle, building a bridge between surplus and scarcity.
In the actual implementation of this work, it becomes evident that even within the same region, the national conditions of different countries vary significantly. Some have relatively stable political situations, strong administrative capabilities, manageable social tensions, and a relatively balanced population growth. These countries have made a solid start on their paths toward industrialization and modernization, making them more welcoming to foreign investors. In contrast, others face political instability, weak governance, severe social conflicts, and a population caught in a downward spiral. Industrialization and modernization remain distant for these nations, posing significant risks to potential foreign investment.
For China, when facing different African countries with varying national conditions and risks, large-scale, blind investments might not be the best option. A better approach could be to focus on ” drip irrigation ” investments in a few countries within each region that already have relatively favorable conditions for investment and maintain a friendly relationship with China.
From the perspective of industrial development efficiency, concentrating on a few standout countries yields far more reliable and substantial returns than spreading investments blindly. These countries already have better development prospects, and focused investments will result in higher efficiency. Wastage and destruction due to various factors will be minimized. For the recipient countries, a short period of intensive investment can help them overcome the toughest phase of modernization, enabling at least one industry to take shape and start a positive cycle. For investors, this approach allows the establishment of industrial advantages in the market, leading to higher returns and reducing the impact of potential disruptive forces.
For Africa, China is a distant, external country with cultural differences. Unlike colonial powers, China’s international engagements are fundamentally based on full respect for the internal affairs of other nations. Therefore, even though China’s economic strength is relatively robust, it’s challenging to directly exert influence in Africa. If China can assist two or three countries in a region to develop models of growth, a powerful demonstration effect could emerge. These countries could serve as seeds of industrialization, providing the region with much-needed industrial infrastructure and helping neighboring nations adapt to a new economic model. Culturally, they could also guide surrounding countries away from chaotic zero-sum conflicts toward stability and development.
At the same time, “drip irrigation investment” also implies more scientific and rational industrial planning. Although investment planning cannot be separated from market regulation, investments in a completely free market environment often come with certain blindness and short-sightedness. Projects related to energy and infrastructure, which have long return cycles and high risks, often struggle to be realized due to a lack of funding. Conversely, light industrial projects, without the support of these foundational projects, also have limited development prospects. For instance, new power facilities can easily drive large-scale investments in electricity-intensive industries, and newly constructed, well-connected streets can encourage more car purchases. However, these benefits cannot be reversed.
If higher-level coordination can oversee and guide investments, ensuring that the proportions of investment in infrastructure, energy, basic industries, and services are balanced, then these investments can achieve a multiplier effect, benefiting both investors and the host countries. Under rational industrial planning, issues like redundant construction, overcapacity, and irrational projects can be reduced, and valuable investments are less likely to be wasted. In the long run, this “prioritize concentration, gradually expand” investment model may yield excellent results.
Tanzanian Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant constructed by POWERCHINA
The Bidirectional Salvation
For young people in China, engaging in the BRI represents a form of bidirectional redemption. It is not only about helping others but also about helping oneself. For those in underdeveloped regions, living with hunger and illness is far from desirable. What we consider “overcapacity” might be their crucial resource. Despite cultural differences and varying definitions of happiness, everyone deserves the right to choose their lifestyle. People might choose a simple life under a tree by the river, foregoing material wealth, but that should be a choice made after exploring different ways of living, not one enforced from birth in a state of confusion and limitation.
For participants in the BRI, it is also a way to regain a sense of value. Some might share my experience: the fatigue from work can be alleviated with simple rest, but the real challenge lies in feeling that one’s work lacks value and meaning, and in being caught up in endless post-modern debates. Through our work on the Belt and Road Initiative, we can clearly see that for the majority of humanity, material production is far from meaningless. On the contrary, it is crucially needed, and as producers of material goods, we are also needed. We are making a tangible contribution to the world.
However, for young Chinese like me, truly realizing our value in the world requires more than just production, more than simply investing in work hours or advancing technology. It demands a persistent effort to innovate and improve production relations, a deeper understanding of international dynamics, and the ability to tackle countless complex and nuanced problems with both determination and adaptability.
In the distant future, it is difficult to determine whether Africa’s path to modernization will hit an insurmountable ceiling. For us, it seems a luxury to even ponder this question right now. What we do know with certainty is that Africa’s future development is closely tied to our efforts. If we can drive industrial development more efficiently and accelerate the formation of modern organizational systems, Africa will stabilize more quickly and enter a path of sustainable growth. The issues of poverty and unemployment stemming from rapid population growth can be curbed sooner, and the tragedies caused by material shortages will decrease.
Regardless of where Africa’s ceiling may lie, today’s Africa is far from reaching it. This is a land where everything is just beginning to grow. No matter which path or endeavor we choose, as long as we press forward with determination, the direction will always be upward. Everything here is extraordinarily challenging, but at the same time, it is extraordinarily full of hope.
No matter what, we are not supposed to aim at building a utopia nor should we expect an end of history. Development is like growing up—as soon as we solve one problem, hundreds more arise, keeping us on our toes. I believe that as Africa gradually develops, countless difficulties and obstacles will continue to emerge on this ancient continent in the future. Some will be familiar, mirroring the issues we’ve faced, while many others will be completely new.
How will these problems be solved? As mere mortals, we can’t pretend to have the answers. But one thing is certain—the wisdom of 8 billion people will surely surpass that of 3 billion. By that time, a society of “true overcapacity” will find it far easier to break through barriers and forge a new path than the current world of “fake overcapacity.”
