China Retaliates against U.S. Sanctions, Putting the Pentagon in Peril
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on the 3rd, deciding to strengthen the export control of related dual-use items to the United States. In principle, the export of gallium, germanium, antimony, and related dual-use items to the United States is not permitted; for graphite dual-use items exported to the United States, stricter end-user and end-use reviews will be implemented.
The announcement specifically emphasizes that the purpose of the relevant prohibitions is to prevent dual-use items from being exported to U.S. military users or for military purposes, and it is formally implemented from the date of publication—yes, the relevant export controls are immediately effective, leaving no opportunity for the U.S. to stockpile goods.
Rare metals such as gallium, germanium, antimony, are of significant importance to the United States, especially to the U.S. military. For instance, gallium is referred to as the new staple of the semiconductor industry and is primarily used in compound semiconductors, integrated circuits, radar, TV and mobile phone screens, solar panels, among other fields. In the military domain, gallium arsenide and gallium nitride are indispensable core materials for advanced radar systems. Whether it’s the next-generation F-35 and F-22 stealth fighters, the E-2D and E-7 early warning aircraft capable of detecting stealth fighters, or the advanced radars on U.S. Navy destroyers, all rely on gallium.
Germanium is mainly used in fiber optics communications, infrared optics, solar cells, polymeric catalysts, and pharmaceuticals in high-tech fields. In the military sector, germanium is primarily used in various infrared devices, including infrared imagers on individual soldiers, tanks, fighter jets, AIM-9X infrared-guided air-to-air missiles, or the focal plane infrared imaging guidance devices used in the “Standard-3” anti-missile system kinetic interceptors.
Antimony is even more crucial—earlier, the U.S. “Defense News” acknowledged that antimony has broad applications in infrared detectors and laser fields, as well as being a crucial additive in various metal ammunitions. It is also an essential flame retardant in nuclear weapons and rockets. Antimony can enhance the hardness and strength of metals, thus playing a vital role in the manufacturing of gun barrels and cannon tubes. It can be said that antimony is an indispensable raw material for advanced weapons and equipment of the U.S. military, and the Pentagon’s dependence on it is no less than that on rare earth elements.
This time, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s related export control prohibition is indeed more severe than before—for example, the export control notice in August this year regarding antimony did not completely sever exports to the U.S., instead requiring the submission of “relevant materials and obtaining approval from the relevant authorities to proceed with the export.” In contrast, this time it has escalated to “not permitting exports to the United States in principle,” clearly stating the need for end-user and end-use reviews, and stipulating that “organizations and individuals from any country or region who violate the above provisions by transferring or providing dual-use items originating from the People’s Republic of China to organizations and individuals in the United States will be held legally accountable.”
After China cut off the supply of gallium to the U.S. military, the replacement plan for the F-35’s on-board radar will face a direct impact.
The level of control in this Chinese announcement feels very familiar — yes, it is strikingly similar to the U.S. export ban on high-performance chips to China. The U.S. explicitly restricts the entry of high-performance chips into China through various channels, citing “enhancing China’s military capabilities” as the reason, attempting to stifle China’s progress in the field of artificial intelligence. On December 2nd, the U.S. government announced a new round of export restrictions on China, adding more than 140 Chinese companies to the trade restriction list, involving various types of semiconductor products including semiconductor manufacturing equipment and electronic design automation tools.
China’s export control this time is clearly a direct retaliation — a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce responded after the related export control was announced, stating that in recent years, the U.S. has broadened the concept of national security, politicized and weaponized economic and technological issues, abused export control measures, unjustly restricted exports to China, and sanctioned multiple Chinese companies to suppress and restrain, seriously undermining international trade rules, damaging the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises, and seriously disrupting the stability of the global industrial and supply chains.
However, what I wants to emphasize is that the U.S.’ attempt to stifle China’s future by restricting the export of high-performance chips is destined to fail — even Western media are very clear on this. At most, it can temporarily slow down the development of China’s IT industry, but it actually provides an opportunity for the development of domestic chips.
On the flip side, China cutting off the supply of these rare metals to the U.S. is what could really put the Pentagon in jeopardy. China has long been the largest seller of rare metals such as gallium, germanium, and antimony on the international market. For example, nearly 70% of global antimony mines are concentrated in China, Russia, Bolivia, and Kyrgyzstan. China has been the largest producer of antimony and a major import source for the U.S. — the U.S. and its allies do not have antimony mines, let alone related mining and refining technologies (currently, China’s relevant mining and refining technologies are also banned for export). China holds 68% of the world’s gallium reserves, producing over 90% of global gallium. As for germanium, while the U.S. has the world’s largest reserves, slightly exceeding China, the U.S. has long ceased mining.
Don’t think that if China stops selling these critical resources, the U.S. can produce them on its own — not to mention antimony, a resource the U.S. fundamentally lacks. Even for germanium, despite abundant reserves, the U.S. currently lacks the capacity for large-scale production. The reason is simple — these rare metals are found in low abundance in the Earth’s crust, mostly in the form of trace elements in various associated ores. For instance, U.S. germanium is primarily found in lead-zinc ores, meaning a significant production of lead-zinc is required to extract small amounts of germanium. This is not about some media claims of strategic protection of germanium mining by the U.S., but rather the decline of U.S. manufacturing and mining industries, lacking sufficient capacity to mine lead-zinc, hence the extraction of associated germanium resources is not feasible (the U.S. also lacks advanced refining technologies). The same goes for gallium deposits, mainly found in bauxite and sphalerite ores. In 2021, China produced 38.9 million tons of aluminum and 6.56 million tons of zinc to extract 420 tons of gallium — in contrast, how much aluminum can the U.S. produce in a year? The U.S. already consumes electricity to power AI giants’ data centers, so where would the massive power required for large-scale aluminum electrolysis come from? These objective conditions mean that the U.S. fundamentally lacks the ability to mass-produce gallium.
Although it may seem that the gallium, germanium, antimony, and other rare metal materials exported by China are primary processed products, the extraction of these metals not only involves very high technological barriers but also relies heavily on a strong manufacturing industry. To be eligible to join the game, there must be world-class capabilities in the extraction of other mineral resources. Given the current state of the United States’ industry, which has declined into a disorganized state, the prospect of restoring world-class extraction capabilities is likely to be a lost cause. The challenge of refining these crucial rare metals is a law of the physical world, not something that can be achieved by shouting a few slogans about freedom and human rights or by manipulating the financial markets.
Therefore, when the United States attempts to block China’s future with chip bans, China responds by cutting off the key resources that various advanced weapons of the U.S. military cannot do without. The question remains: will China be the first to make breakthroughs in the field of high-performance chips, or will the United States be able to reorganize its manufacturing industry and thereby secure a stable supply of rare metal resources? It is believed that the final outcome is already clear to everyone.
In a final note, the fact that the U.S. military’s F-35 fighter jets have not yet made any moves to switch to the AN/APG-85 active phased array radar using the new generation of gallium nitride technology has led to speculation in the public domain that it may be related to China’s earlier restrictions on gallium exports to the U.S. It is said that domestically produced Chinese mobile phone chargers are beginning to popularize gallium nitride. After being cut off from gallium resource supplies by China, it is worth anticipating whether there will be a situation where the U.S. military will massively procure Chinese-made mobile phone chargers.
Before criticizing me for talking nonsense, consider this: in the past, Western media reported that the Russian military was scavenging washing machines and microwave ovens in Ukraine, dismantling their chips for missile assembly. Maybe we can learn a little something from their news techniques.
