China: An Exceptionally Special Rival Beyond America’s Imagination

After World War II, the United States rose to the top, becoming the world’s leading power. For a time, it was far ahead of the rest of the world in national strength. Even during the Cold War, when the Soviet Union seemed to be an equal competitor, apart from the military field, it lagged far behind the U.S. in areas like the economy, industry, technology, culture, and finance.

With its immense national power, the United States possesses a vast array of both tangible and intangible weapons. Without even going to war, it can still impose heavy costs on its opponents. This makes it a courageous act for any country to say “no” to the U.S. and defend its own interests under American pressure.

The First Example: Russia

Russia has the largest land area in the world, a population ranking in the top ten globally (ninth), and some of the richest natural resources on the planet (in 2023, it was the second-largest producer of oil and natural gas). Its military is among the top three in the world. Yet, since the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, Russia has been unable to end the conflict after two and a half years. Even if Russia eventually wins, the cost will be enormous. This is closely tied to the U.S. backing Ukraine from behind the scenes.

Let’s take a look at the casualty figures for Russians in the ongoing war in Ukraine.

In the 1980s, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, and this war lasted from December 24, 1979, until the complete withdrawal of Soviet troops on February 15, 1989. On May 25, 1988, the head of the Soviet Army’s Main Political Directorate announced that 12210 Soviet soldiers had been killed, 35478 wounded, and 311 were missing during the war in Afghanistan.

According to official Russian data, during the First Chechen War (December 1994 – May 1996), Russia lost 3,826 soldiers, with 17,892 wounded and 1,906 missing. In the Second Chechen War, based on figures publicly released on May 16, 2001, by a Russian presidential aide, 3096 soldiers from the military and the Ministry of Internal Affairs were killed, and 9,187 were wounded between October 1, 1999, and May 16, 2001. Although the Second Chechen War was officially declared over when President Vladimir Putin announced the full withdrawal of Russian troops on January 22, 2001, guerrilla warfare and terrorist attacks in Chechnya continued until 2009. As a result, the actual death toll exceeded the 3096 officially reported.

According to official Soviet and Russian data, the combined number of soldiers killed and missing in the Afghanistan War and the two Chechen Wars was just over 20000.

But just one month after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, on March 25, 2022, Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported 1351 Russian soldiers killed and 382 wounded. Since then, numerous battles have taken place, including the significant Russian victory in the siege of Mariupol (Azovstal Steel Plant) from April to May 2022. This battle was a devastating defeat for Ukrainian forces and marked the largest instance of Ukrainian soldiers being captured. Between May 16 and 20, 2022, during the final four days of the battle, Russia announced that a total of 2439 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered. Prior to that, Russia had already reported capturing over 1000 Ukrainian soldiers in the Mariupol region.

In early June 2024, Putin stated that Russia held a total of 6465 Ukrainian prisoners of war. This figure highlights the significant losses suffered by Ukrainian forces in Mariupol, reflecting a large proportion of their overall casualties.

In September 2022, Ukrainian forces launched a major counteroffensive, regaining almost all of Kharkiv Oblast and recovering over 10000 square kilometers of territory. They also recaptured Lyman in northern Donetsk Oblast and the city of Kherson, the capital of southern Kherson Oblast.

In May 2023, Russian forces achieved a significant but costly victory in the brutal Battle of Bakhmut. Wagner Group leader Prigozhin claimed that Russian troops lost 20000 men in Bakhmut, while he stated that Ukrainian casualties were even higher.

Additionally, after nearly five months of fighting, Russian forces finally captured Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast in February 2024. In August of this year, Ukrainian forces launched an assault in the Kursk region of Russia, occupying over 1000 square kilometers of Russian territory.

Currently, Western media outlets like the BBC Russian have been compiling various obituaries for Russian soldiers, both official and private sources. As of September 20, their latest statistics indicate that the number of reported Russian military deaths has surpassed 70000.

In June 2024, during an interview in Saint Petersburg, Putin stated that Ukrainian forces suffered 50000 casualties each month, claiming a casualty ratio of 1:5 in favor of Russia. Even with this calculation, it suggests that Russian forces face around 10000 casualties each month, although the exact number of deaths remains unknown.

Casualty figures in warfare are often shrouded in uncertainty. However, based on the information presented, we can conservatively estimate that Russian military deaths in the two and a half years of the Russia-Ukraine war have certainly exceeded 20000. This means that the number of Russian casualties in the current conflict has already surpassed the total from the Afghanistan War and the two Chechen Wars combined.

The Russian military held the funeral for a fallen officer.

Moreover, Russia’s domestic oil depots, refineries, and airports have been continuously targeted by long-range drone attacks from Ukraine. The Kursk offensive, which began in August, has resulted in Russia losing over 1,000 square kilometers of territory.

Russia’s significant losses are closely related to the extensive military and financial support provided to Ukraine by the U.S.-led NATO. Furthermore, Americans are now directly participating as mercenaries on the Ukrainian battlefield, killing Russians. Numerous videos circulating on Western social media show English-speaking Ukrainian squads attacking Russian trenches and directly killing Russian soldiers on the battlefield.

A video from YouTube of foreign snipers killing Russian soldiers

In addition to directly killing Russian forces on the battlefield, the U.S. has rallied European countries to impose sanctions on Russia, leading to the exit of many Western companies and the sale of their assets in Russia. Although Chinese goods, particularly automobiles and smartphones, have entered the market in large quantities, they primarily focus on sales. Chinese companies remain cautious about making large-scale investments in Russia due to concerns about potential U.S. sanctions and other factors, making it difficult to quickly compensate for the scale of assets withdrawn by the West.

What’s more, the U.S. has joined forces with Europe, Japan, and others to freeze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, resulting in significant losses. Following the onset of the war, Russian officials stated that about half of their foreign exchange reserves—approximately $300 billion—had been frozen by the West, though this figure is an estimate.

In June 2024, the G7 summit took place in Italy, where leaders unanimously agreed to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan, backed by the profits from over $260 billion in frozen Russian assets. The G7 announced that around $260 billion of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves were frozen, with a smaller portion in the U.S. and the majority—over $220 billion—in Europe. Additionally, according to a report by RIA Novosti on June 17, 2024, more than $33 billion in Russian financial assets have been frozen in Japan.

With casualties exceeding the total from the Chechen and Afghan wars, a massive withdrawal of foreign investment, over $260 billion in foreign exchange reserves effectively seized, and various military expenditures, Russia’s losses are undeniably enormous. If a major power like Russia is facing such challenges, it is even more difficult for smaller and medium-sized countries.

Honestly, if it weren’t for China’s presence, Russia would be in a very difficult situation today. In 2023, China exported products worth up to $110.97 billion to Russia, primarily consisting of various industrial goods. This not only significantly stabilized prices and living standards in Russia but also included essential items for maintaining industrial operations. Simultaneously, China imported $129.139 billion worth of products from Russia, mainly oil, natural gas, coal, and agricultural products. This influx of revenue has provided substantial support to Russia amid declining exports to Europe and the U.S.

The Second Example: Iran

Iran has faced continuous U.S. sanctions, leading companies worldwide to hesitate in engaging in normal business with the country. This reluctance includes both investing in factories and importing products from Iran.

In 2016, ZTE faced its first U.S. sanctions, and in December 2018, the U.S. arrested Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, both actions justified by their business dealings with Iran. This highlights the severity of U.S. sanctions against Iran, which have significantly hindered its economic development. Although it’s difficult to quantify the wealth lost by Iran due to these sanctions, the cumulative effect over the years is undoubtedly substantial.

Iran has not only faced economic sanctions but has also been subject to constant military attacks. During the Trump administration, on January 3, 2020, the U.S. carried out a drone strike near Baghdad International Airport, killing IRGC Major General Qasem Soleimani. This year, on April 1, Israel directly bombed the Iranian consulate in Syria, resulting in the deaths of 13 people, including seven Iranian military personnel and six Syrians. On July 31, 2024, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in his residence in Tehran. The U.S. largely supports Israel’s such bold actions.

Iranian civilians flooded the streets to mourn commander Qasem Soleimani.

The Third Example: Serbia (former Yugoslavia)

In 1999, NATO, led by the U.S., launched airstrikes against the former Yugoslavia, resulting in over a thousand deaths and widespread destruction of infrastructure. The country was forcibly disintegrated, with Kosovo gaining independence and being recognized by many nations (though China has not recognized it). For a sovereign nation, enduring bombings and having its territory torn apart is a profound humiliation. Even today, NATO continues to pressure Serbia over the Kosovo issue.

What if today’s China faced all the pressures and attacks the same as those on Russia, Iran, and Serbia?

To be more specific, the U.S. managed to rally Europe, Japan, and South Korea to impose comprehensive sanctions against China, freeze half of China’s foreign exchange reserves, and lead to a full withdrawal of foreign investments from these countries. Over 1,000 square kilometers of Chinese territory were occupied, and a Chinese general visiting abroad was killed by a drone strike, while support was given for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Beijing and the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Syria, it would be catastrophic.

At the same time, the U.S. directly targeted locations within China through airstrikes and deployed mercenaries to engage in combat against Chinese forces, forcing China to yield. And they facilitated Taiwan’s independence with recognition from numerous countries.

If these events actually occurred, the Chinese people would undoubtedly feel humiliated, and everyone would suffer significant personal losses.

In fact, China is facing significant pressures and potential threats of military conflict.

Some of the major pressures China has encountered over the past six years include:

1. In March 2018, the U.S. launched a full-scale trade war against China, causing significant concern since the U.S. was China’s largest source of trade surplus.

2. In April 2018, the U.S. imposed sanctions on ZTE, resulting in an immediate business shock for the company, which had revenues in the hundreds of billions of RMB. This had an even greater impact on Chinese society than the trade war itself.

3. In December 2018, the U.S. arrested Meng Wanzhou in Canada, and in May 2019, it placed Huawei on the Entity List, initiating continuous sanctions aimed at crippling the company completely.

4. In June 2020, India created friction along the China-India border, leading to the Galwan Valley incident, where 20 Indian soldiers and 4 Chinese soldiers lost their lives.

5. Ahead of the November 2020 U.S. elections, Trump made numerous statements attacking China to bolster his campaign, leading to rumors that he might instigate a small-scale military conflict between the U.S. and China. At that time, the U.S. had two aircraft carrier strike groups in the South China Sea. To prevent miscalculations, General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, secretly contacted China to assure them that the U.S. would not go to war. This incident later caused a stir in the U.S. when revealed by the media in 2021.

Politico’s coverage of Mark Milley’s phone call to the Chinese military

6. The U.S. has continuously played the Taiwan game, culminating in heightened tensions during Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022.

7. Since 2023, with U.S. support, the Philippines has repeatedly stirred up disputes in the South China Sea, particularly around Huangyan Island, Ren’ai Reef, and Xianbin Reef, attempting to provoke military conflict.

8. During the Paris Olympics in August 2024, Western media collectively accused the Chinese swimming team of doping, but ultimately no positive tests were found, and swimmer Pan Zhanle broke the world record to win a gold medal.

The eight events were widely reported in Chinese media, thus becoming social hotspots and leaving a deep impression on the Chinese public. Over the past six years, China has largely succeeded in avoiding falling into the situation like Russia or Iran , though it has required significant effort and resources.

In response to the India-China border conflict, China has conducted multiple military exercises in the west of the country and deployed advanced weapons to strengthen its military presence, thereby deterring India. In the South China Sea, China has also mobilized a significant number of coast guard ships and personnel to manage provocations from the Philippines, which entails substantial financial costs.

In the tech and economic sectors, after six years of trade wars and semiconductor sanctions, Chinese society has largely adapted to the U.S. sanctions in these areas. Not only has import and export trade seen significant growth over the past six years, but the semiconductor industry is also developing positively. From January to August of this year, China’s integrated circuit exports reached 736.04 billion yuan, an increase of 24.8%. It’s worth noting that a considerable portion of these exports includes chips manufactured by companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Intel in Chinese factories.

The release of Huawei’s Mate 60 smartphones at the end of August 2023 was a milestone. Recently, the launch of the triple-foldable Huawei Mate XT has shifted the focus away from chip issues. Instead, the focus was on its folding design and the high starting price of $2800. Pre-orders exceeded 5 million, indicating strong consumer interest.

Huawei’s Executive Director Richard Yu announced the Huawei Mate XT triple-foldable smartphone, at a press conference on September 10, with a pre-sale price of $2,800.

Overall, after six years of such intense pressures, the impact of U.S. trade and technology sanctions on the daily lives of Chinese citizens remains manageable. Additionally, China’s loss of life has been significantly lower than that of the former Yugoslavia, Russia, and Iran.

I believe this is closely tied to China’s vigorous economic and military development over the years. We must remember that the world operates on jungle law, where power matters. This underscores the significance of the saying, “sweat more in peacetime to bleed less in wartime,” enabling China to maintain its position despite U.S. pressure—something most countries struggle to achieve. Very few nations are bold enough to revolt against the U.S. in today’s world.

China’s current efforts in industrial upgrading, domestic chip production, operating system localization, economic development, military equipment modernization, and army training will yield long-term benefits. Even if a war breaks out in the future, these efforts can help reduce the costs and save many lives.