Iran Must Avoid Russia’s Mistakes in Dealing with Israel

After Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken promptly informed G7 foreign ministers on Sunday that retaliatory actions from Iran and Hezbollah were expected within the next 24-48 hours. However, so far, Iran has shown remarkable strategic focus, which has actually foiled the American plot.

What was the conspiracy of the United States and Israel? It was to provoke Iranian decision-makers into an emotional response, forcing them to strike a well-prepared Israeli military while Iran was still underprepared, thereby suffering significant losses.

This isn’t the first time the U.S. has attempted such a tactic. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Biden confidently claimed that Russia would launch an attack within a few days to a week. This was akin to waving a red cloth in front of a bull, using the Western media’s propaganda advantage to constantly provoke the emotions of the Russian military and public, thereby influencing decision-making.

Russia waited until the fifth day after Biden’s propaganda campaign to launch military action, but the actual performance of the Russian army still revealed many shortcomings in preparation. For example, in the first wave of attacks on important military facilities like Ukraine’s airports, the number of missiles was far from sufficient. Some runways were hit by only one or two missiles, and after simple repairs, they were operational again, showing a clear lack of preparation fire. The battle for Antonov International Airport also exposed various coordination issues. The Russian Air Force, despite having air superiority, was unable to delay the Ukrainian armored forces’ siege of the airborne troops. resulting in significant setbacks for the Russian airborne forces.

Iran has clearly learned from Russia’s experience and devised countermeasures. Superficially, the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran has caused more grief for Iran and the Arab world. But in reality, the ones who are now more emotional are the U.S. and Israel. The continuous escalation of the Middle East situation is largely driven by right-wing in Israel and the U.S. They use actions like assassinations to humiliate Iran, hoping to provoke a full-scale Iranian military response so they can systematically dismantle Iran’s military, achieving a long-term stabilization effect.

The Arab world, with Iran as a key player, has a population size equivalent to three Russias, making such a one-shot approach unrealistic. It is important to understand that the right-wing factions in the U.S. and Israel are not acting out of arrogance but out of fear, because they have recognized the decline of American global hegemony.

From the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the Gaza war, the swift victory plans of America’s allies have consecutively failed, making the decline of American global hegemony evident. The right-wing factions in the U.S. and Israel are now trying to provoke Iran into a full-scale attack because they want to make a final push while they still have some military and technological advantage. By maintaining composure, Iran is correctly countering this strategy, as long as the trend of declining U.S. comprehensive strength continues, time is on Iran’s side.

The United States Military Academy West Point includes China’s “The Art of War” as a reference text. This ancient Chinese book contains a very famous teaching: ” No ruler should put troops into the field merely to gratify his own spleen; no general should fight a battle simply out of pique.” emphasizing that military leaders should not let emotions drive their decisions, as it often leads to unwise choices. Iran, being closer to China, clearly understands this wisdom.

Even if Iran does decide to take military action to avenge Hania, “The Art of War” also says, “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” When Iran determines that it is fully prepared both physically and psychologically, it will not be up to American politicians to play the role of the cheering squad.