Biden and Trump: Who Is the Lesser Evil?

The first presidential debate of the 2024 U.S. election revealed a troubling lack of serious discourse, resembling a childish quarrel more than a political debate. Trump's potential return poses significant concerns for China and Europe, as his aggressive tariff policies could strain international relations and impact global trade.
July 4, 2024
Senior fellow at Taihe Institute, Chairman and co-founder of Hao Capital
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Spent a morning watching the debate few days ago between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, I have to say it’s amazing. You have two kids in the schoolyard fighting with each other in the sandbox, you can’t hit the ball 50 yards. You are 270 pounds. You’re a liar. You can’t even talk straight.

Now, presidential debate, the competition is supposed to be over policy, over strategy for the country, over how to improve the livelihood of these people. This is supposed to lead the most powerful country in the world. What has this country come down to? What has America become? It’s absolutely shocking.
I think, if there is anything that came out of this debate that is good, is it showed where America is today, what American leadership means.

Now, of course, the next issue, which is now all over the discussion pages, all over the world, is what happens if Biden steps aside. Because the Democratic Party knows and sees this very clearly that the polls indicate if it’s Biden, then Trump will win definitely. No question. The polls are clear on this, but anybody else from Democratic Party, they will beat Trump, because people don’t really want Trump. People don’t want a convicted felon and a liar and a cheater as their President. But to have Biden, the risk is too high. Anybody, but Biden will probably beat Trump. This is what the polls are beginning to indicate.

That’s pressure indeed on the Democratic Party. They have to come to grips with this. If it happens Biden continues to push ahead and pursued the presidency is reelection. The chances are that we will have another President Donald Trump again, while in the White House not serving jail time.

For someone living in Beijing, living in China, when it’s certainly concerned about what happens when Donald Trump gets in, because his cohort or his theorists and his brains, the brains that stand behind him are strongly anti-China.

Now, whether or not he will actually follow up on some of the comments that he’s made, 60% duty on all Chinese goods, but it’s more than China. He wants to impose duties on good all imported products, including all European products. We’ll see whether or not he carries through on these pronouncements that he’s played so far. But one thing that is clear, he’s a businessman and he wants to make deals. We’ll see whether or not he can make deals that supposedly will benefit the US. But he’s also made other announcements and actually made the Europeans very nervous, like withdrawing from NATO, like duties on all European goods is going to the United States. These are things which will probably not make European friends and partners of the Americans very happy.

But for China stands very strong, because you can try to disengage from China, impose duties on Chinese product, reassuring supply chain to other countries, but we’ve seen he tried it for 4 years during his presidency. He’s also had Biden follow up following his track in terms of duties on Chinese products, and even much more with sanctions all over China on technology products and technologies.

Has it really done anything? Well, it accelerated China’s technology development. It made China more self-sufficient in technology. So it made Southeast Asia a more integrated part of China’s supply chain.

Let’s see what happens. Let’s see if he goes in and actually carries out these measures, we’ll see who will get hurt? The American consumer. Who will get hurt? The Europeans. China will do well. China will continue to do well. China has the most complete manufacturing system in the world, most complete supply chain, and most efficient infrastructure.

So it’s going to be hard to beat down China on the economy front. But on the financial side, you can collect a lot of taxes, collect a lot of duties. But what’s going to happen to your people’s inflation rates? How are people going to survive when things go up in price by doubling or even more because of the duties you impose? So, I don’t think if he implemented these things, pronouncements that he’s made so far, it’s really going to help the country, help America. And in fact, there will be a lot of objections to him in doing it. But even if he did, you will end up with results. That’s very different from what he would have hoped or projected.


Senior fellow at Taihe Institute, Chairman and co-founder of Hao Capital
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