Easing US-Russia Relations Play into China’s Hands

Recently, the United States and Russia have initiated negotiations related to a ceasefire in Ukraine, causing concern among many netizens: If Trump eases tensions between the United States and Russia, will China face greater pressure in its game against the United States without Russia’s support?

To answer this question, we first need to look at the direction of US-Russia relations. In my opinion, US-Russia relations cannot return to the past. Trump can be considered the most pro-Russian president in US history. Former Australian Prime Minister Turnbull once compared Trump to a little boy and Putin to a football team captain on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s “Q+A” program. He said, ” When you see Trump with Putin, as I have on a few occasions, he’s like the 12-year-old boy who goes to high school and meets the captain of the football team. ‘My hero.’ Putin is his football team captain, his hero.” “It’s really creepy!” Trump’s admiration for Putin is difficult to put into words. It must be said that Putin’s encounter with Trump is also a kind of luck. However, this is only a personal factor. In international relations, personal factors are important but not decisive. The decisive factor remains the fundamental interests of the two countries. Currently, there are many conflicts in US-Russia relations, and these contradictions are difficult to resolve. Therefore, US-Russia relations may improve in the coming years, but this improvement will be limited.

U.S. President Trump (right) and Russian President Putin attending the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan on June 28, 2019. Source from: Xinhua News Agency

Next, let’s explore Trump’s considerations regarding US-China-Russia relations. Just a few days ago, Trump expressed his hope for Russia to rejoin the G7, his intention being quite clear – he wants to bring Russia back into the Western camp. Many years ago, Brzezinski published a book called “Strategic Vision”. At that time, Brzezinski had already insightfully pointed out that the only future challenge for the United States would come from China, and he claimed that the US had never faced such a strong opponent before. He proposed that the US must strengthen itself, revive its manufacturing industry, and not indulge in financial games all day long, wasting time. Additionally, it is essential to firmly control North America, indirectly control South America, and protect Australia. He also advocated for bringing Russia and Turkey into the Western camp. In this way, the US strategy could operate flexibly. However, the paths taken by Clinton and George W. Bush were vastly different from his ideas. Trump’s thinking is somewhat similar to his, but Trump intends to sacrifice the interests of Ukraine and Europe, which Brzezinski vehemently opposed. Moreover, Trump did not focus on attracting Turkey, but instead fully supported Israel in the Middle East. Although Trump did not completely follow Brzezinski’s ideas, there are certain similarities between the two. Now, Trump is firmly focused on one goal: concentrating on countering China, with strong personal emotions. Therefore, he will certainly cozy up to Russia and then concentrate his efforts against us.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor to President Carter and renowned geopolitical strategist. Source from: Vision China

Now let’s take a look at the China-Russia relationship. Regardless of how US-Russia relations evolve, we will spare no effort to strengthen the China-Russia relationship. I firmly believe that Russia, based on its own national interests, will also value its relationship with China. In the future, the enthusiasm for cooperation between Russia and China may not be as high as in recent years, but overall, the China-Russia relationship will remain stable.

Moreover, since Trump took office and has been aggressively pressuring Europe, relations between China and Europe are likely to ease. Seeing Trump’s actions and witnessing China’s increasing strength, countries like Japan and South Korea may not necessarily completely comply with the demands of the United States.

From our own perspective, China is now extremely confident and independent. In the strategic game between China and the US, we do not rely on any external temporary opportunities. This is not to say that China does not seize opportunities; once an opportunity arises, we will certainly seize it. However, when it comes to resolving major issues, we do not advocate relying on third-party forces, as this would compromise our autonomy.

Chinese navy’s Liaoning aircraft carrier. Source from: Official Weibo account of the People’s Liberation Army News and Information Center

In the game against the US, even without Russia’s assistance, we have the ability to respond calmly. In the Asia-Pacific region, China now has a significant advantage, with the entire frontline deployment completed, waiting for the US to “challenge” us. Many people think that if Trump focuses more on confronting China, China will be in trouble. However, I do not share this view; instead, I see it as the “big fish” taking the bait. China’s greatness far exceeds our imagination. Over the past few months, China has unleashed tremendous energy, with numerous innovations emerging, leading worldwide. As long as we have confidence in China, we will naturally have confidence in the China-Russia relationship and be equally confident in the game between China and the US.

Editor: Leo Cai