MAGA is in Danger

While visiting the National University of Singapore, Professor Zhang Weiwei exchanged views on China-US relations, China-ASEAN relations, the Ukraine crisis, and the move toward multi-polarity, with Mr. George Yeo, Singapore’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs. In the conversation, they expressed hope for Donald Trump’s MAGA reforms, such as dismantling the deep state, while noting that “nothing is more dangerous and more difficult than reform.”

Professor Zhang Weiwei exchanging views with Singapore’s former foreign minister George Yeo

Zhang Weiwei:
It’s such a pleasure to see Minister George Yeo here in your office. You are very well known in China and in the world. So I think it’s only benefiting for us to discuss a bit international affairs so much going on and also relating to China, US and ASEAN. This morning, I was watching BBC, it’s the news about Munich Security Conference. Obviously, Russia and United States have agreed to have negotiations to be held in Saudi Arabia, but Europe was left in the cold. It’s not that surprising, because in our current affairs show in Shanghai, when the war broke out, we said Ukraine will be the No.1 victim, Europe will be the No.2 victim. From my point of view, this kind of situation is already somehow predictable. It happens now. So what’s your view? I know Singapore’s official position on the Ukrainian crisis, but from your scholarly and statesman’s view of that crisis, its current situation, how it will, in the end, what will the end result with Donald Trump in power?

George Yeo:
Under Donald Trump, the US is turning inwards. It is turning inwards because there are many problems within the society: social divisions, de- industrialization, drug addiction, moral confusion within the US itself. So the founding principles of America in law, in spirit, a lot of it is lost. And partly because the US has changed demographically, in a few years, the white people in the US has no longer been a majority. You go to New York or to any other great cities. You’re not sure what is the character, because you’re so mixed. It could be the UN and I can understand why many Americans, traditional Americans who were there many generations, don’t like to see this rapid change in their own society. So Trump has always been against open immigration. He has always been against free trade, because he thinks that free trade without countervailing policies leads to de- industrialization, losing skills to the countries to which products are source for manufacturing. But he is pure business. So in all his actions, one eye on the stock market, that’s true, he is pure business, this is in his instinct. It’s not just political. The last part about Trump is he’s against war. He doesn’t like wars. It doesn’t mean that he will not fight a war, but he lacks a white ball, which is a good thing for the world. America is consolidating, and they can recreate a Monroe doctrine because the hemisphere is too big. In South America, it’s too difficult because of Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, but he’s trying to consolidate north and central America. Its initial moves against Canada and Mexico, but these are negotiating moves to force them to work more closely. Then he has renamed the Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America. I think it reflects an internal strategy. And Secretary Rubio’s first visit was to Central America, and they want to make sure they do not lose strategic control of Panama, so threatening to take it over, so that they will listen to the US and even his early success in getting six Americans detained in Venezuela out, suggested an initial contact with Maduro, and Rubio himself is a Cuban American. So we’ll see, but my own initial observation is that they’re trying to consolidate North and Central America. Trump must be an Iron Dome against China and Russia. So Canada is part of it, and he wants Greenland, but what does he say to the Europeans? I’m looking after myself and I would not depend on you to go after me, so I want Greenland. Of course he also wants resources, but resources have got to be paid for. By his actions, Trump is helping to precipitate a Multi-polar world in a way. The Europeans will do not have to look after themselves. They have to find a new equilibrium with Russia, with China. And Trump is doing what Kissinger recommended a long time ago, which is in a world where America’s relative power is in decline, America’s best strategy is to move closer to everybody, to China, to Russia, to Europe, to Japan, to everybody. And then in any relationship, America can play the balancing role. These are Tai Chi principle. You move to the center, and then from the center you have a lot of power. But under Biden, they wanted to be number one in the world, so this put them off balance. So it’s a very interesting period.

Zhang Weiwei:
That’s so much going on and so much history unfolding before our eyes. Then if we look at, slightly from a more theoretical point of view, this classical liberalism, which was about separation of powers, which Donald Trump dislikes, he could hold powers, 3-4 powers, all in his own hands. And then this new liberalism, which called the world is flat, and Donald Trump hates that, the de-industrialization happened in that period, then work liberalism which was most offensive to him. So do you think that with the rise of Donald Trump and his somehow domestic support pretty strong as shown in this election. Does it mean the end of this classical, new liberalism as well as work liberalism? Will it be gone or it’s just temporary, Donald trump is temporary, is transitional or is the end of history?

George Yeo:
I think Trump is an agent of history. I think there is a historical time moving towards multi-polarity. Trump is now helping it happen sooner rather than later. The Biden administration tried to prevent it, but fail. But Trump himself will only be there for one term. If they lose one of the Houses in the Midterm Elections, he has 2 years to achieve his agenda. His main concern is internal, which means cutting down the deficit, deregulating. He’s got Elon Musk to be head of DOGE, the Department of Growth of Governmental Efficiency. He’s trying to improve education, reduce drug addiction, stop all this extremism. I think his deep instincts are to revive and rejuvenate America. Hence the slogan Make America Great Again, but it’s very difficult. And I couldn’t help sometimes recalling the Guangxu period when they had this Wuxu Bianfa, Hundred Days’ Reform. It failed miserably because it’s so difficult to achieve such drastic reform. Certain things you can do like USAID and so on, and maybe better identification. But social security, medicare, defense, these are all big  items. You can trim here and there, save maybe a few hundred billion dollars, maybe $1 trillion. It’s something to change the trend.

Zhang Weiwei:
As we are in the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Donald Trump should have consulted your side before he made these decisions. I agree with you.

George Yeo:
He has to try because if you’re an American, you can see this thing just happening before you, is like China in the 19th century, these great scholars, they watch all this. People say no, try to change it, but so difficult. Nothing is so difficult as reform, that’s nothing more dangerous and more difficult than reform.

Zhang Weiwei:
In human history, very often, revolutions can be successful, but reforms can fail.

George Yeo:
Reform can fail. But we should hope that Trump succeeds. We should hope he succeeds, because if America recovers its self confidence, it will also recover the sense of responsibility for the world, and that’s good for everybody.

Zhang Weiwei:
I was in Paris just 1 week ago, and I had a conversation with local scholars there in France, they asked me about Donald Trump. I said something similar. I said his effort to dismantle this Deep State. We hope he will be successful, because not only Deep State has caused so many problems, destruction, wars in the world, but has also caused huge damage to America’s own interests. So I said on that point, I think he should try and try hard. I do not object to it. What’s your take on deep state?

George Yeo:
Attacking the deep state is very dangerous, because they have all the information, they have all the secrets. He will make some successes, but it’s very difficult. It requires more than one Donald Trump to do this.

Zhang Weiwei:
You know, in our TV show back in 2021, when Joe Biden came to power, and I made a prediction at that time, it’s open to the public, I said Joe Biden administration is transitional. Four years later, Donald Trump may return or it’s going to be a year of Donald Trump without Donald Trump, which means he could have been assassinated, but still, some of his ideas may continue to survive him. That’s our predictions at that time, four years ago. Fortunately, Chinese government, Chinese enterprises, Chinese companies, most of them also think along this line. We are ready for the whatever trade war, tech war, if any, in the pipeline.

George Yeo:
I think China has been very steady because China knows that what happens in the US is for Americans to decide. China cannot see that our policy is based on one outcome. China’s policy is it must be based on all outcomes and be prepared whatever the situation. And I think it’s been a good strategy, just be very steady, don’t escalate, be strong, and make friends everywhere, and win. Now that Trump has made his move, and after JD Vance speech in Munich, I think you’ll find everybody seeking a China option,  Europeans, Indians, and Japanese, Koreans, everybody, say better get closer to China because otherwise I’m facing the US alone.

Zhang Weiwei:
What’s your idea about the US ASEAN relationship? During the year of Joe Biden, obviously, he forced ASEAN to pick sides. With Donald Trump in power, has he produced any, whatever strategy or policies vis-a-vis this region, Southeast Asia, ASEAN, maybe not yet?

George Yeo:
I think Donald may don’t know much about ASEAN. It will take time. I remember the Congressional Hearing for the Secretary of Defense Hegseth. He couldn’t identify any country in ASEAN. Trump didn’t even know that China is part of BRICS. So they have strong emotions, a strong view, but they still lack knowledge, but give them a few moments. ASEAN has a very clear position. China will become more and more important to us. China is a historic opportunity. bilateral trade is about trillion dollars. Chinese investments are everywhere. Connectivity is improving, the ties are linking up by train, for all this is good. But the deepest thing in Southeast Asia is the closer you are to China, the more you might diversify, because otherwise China have too much power over you. So whether Vietnam or Indonesia or Philippines, all of them do not want to be subservient to China, but they want to be close to China. So I tell my American friends, if you force us to choose, you will not like the answer. But if you don’t force us to choose, every door, every window will be open to you, and you don’t have to pay a cent. I think America will gradually move to that position.

Zhang Weiwei:
I have a view, perhaps slightly Chinese biased. I was in Geneva. I gave a talk there. I tried to compare the China’s role in Asia vis-a-vis the ASEAN and the US role in Europe vis-a-vis the EU and NATO. I said China is a big power. China respects ASEAN neutrality, centrality, nuclear free zone. We put everything most most important priority to economic development, on win-win economic cooperation, the largest trade zone and more. But United States vis-a-vis Europe, its NATO philosophy, keep America in, keep Russia out, keep Germany down, and European leaders, you fail to realize what’s your own fundamental interest, and you follow the Joe Biden and his policies, and then you lost peace, lost development, lost prosperity. I don’t know whether you share my take or not.

George Yeo:
This is Europe. This is the history of Europe where there are always powers in contention. No one ever since the end of Rome has been able to dominate all of Europe. So if you are an European scholar, or a student of European history or European looking at your own history, then the Peloponnesian War and the Thucydides’s trap is the prism through which you could analyze today’s Europe. America influence the war, still has in many places military bases. But now says Europe has to look after itself. If there’s some kind of a peace agreement in Ukraine, the peacekeeping force is going to be very European. Americans will not be involved. This is a shock to the North Atlantic alliance. You cannot use the Thucydides prism to look at Asia, because in Asia, every time China recovered, it dominated. It dominated not by military force, even though it always had strong military forces, but by exploiting the size of his economy to influence behavior. So if you are my friend, I’ll benefit you. If you are not my friend, you benefit less, and this influence behavior.

Zhang Weiwei:
I call this US philosophy is a friend or foe. Chinese philosophy as a civilizational state is a friend or potential friend. We have much longer vision, so we have patience.

George Yeo:
One problem is in the past, in the Ming dynasty, they had tributary states. Tributary state in the middle east and in the west is that I pay you so that you will not attack me, so it is protection money. In China, the tributary state is, if you have knowledge of that time sphere, you will benefit. You’re not paying me a ransom and giving you a reward. Unfortunately, the same word is used in English, tributary states, it suggests that China is making use of this relationship to take, but in fact, it is to give.

Zhang Weiwei:
Yeah, that’s true. Finally a question concerning a fascinating topic, it’s about multilateralism and multi-polarity. Basically, you may look at the Munich Conference this time, the theme multi-polarity. That’s something rare for Europeans to admit, that’s important. I came to a thesis, I don’t know whether you share or not. That is if multilateralism as it is today, can reflect the multi-polar world, the reality, then it’s what we call genuine multilateralism. If it’s not, it’s as Joe Biden talk about, you know, rules-based, that’s very narrow scope of multilateralism, this we called fake or semi-fake multilateralism. I remember Angela Merkel, when she was still the Chancellor, she was in Davos 5-6 years ago. I was there, and she said, we have to make reform of international system and institutions, otherwise China would not wait for us. China go ahead with BRI, with AII bank, etc. So she said we have to reform, otherwise the rest of the world do not wait for us. I think we prefer, we support, we endorse multilateral, but they should reflect changing times and changing reality. This multi-polar world is already there. What do you think of this?

George Yeo:
It’s difficult because the western countries have dominated the world for so long. They think that their own ideas are superior. They recognize that the democracies have problems, but still in a superior. When they were strong and self confident, they promoted liberalism, which is we should respect a diversity of views, but all within a western framework. Now, those liberal ideas within western society have come into crisis because of immigration. For instance, I don’t think it can ever absorb, fully assimilate Muslim populations, so they’re in a bit of a crisis. In a curious way, who are the liberals now, in the best sense of liberalism? It is China and India, because China and India say relationship is not based upon you becoming like me. Jaishankar, the Indian Minister of External Affairs said recently at the Munich Conference, he said, if our ambassadors in the west behaved the way your ambassadors in India behave, you will find unacceptable. They come here. They don’t know the place. They’re immediately judging this. You shouldn’t be doing this. You shouldn’t be doing that. And I give you a mark. You look at the top journals, New York Times, The Economist, Financial Times, the experts are very quick to give recommendation to governments, they don’t live there, their knowledge is shallow, but they are full of wisdom and advice. Indians and Chinese don’t do this. They say, look, it’s interesting you have your characteristics, we try to understand, and which was fine. This is very important, 70 years ago between India and China, they had five principles. But unfortunately, because of bad India China relations, there was a commemoration in China, but not in India. We are celebrating 70 anniversary of Bandung this year, and I hope Indonesia will promote it and bring China and India together, because there is a true liberalism for multi-polarity.

Zhang Weiwei:
That’s a very good point. I think this is a very wise and sensible assessment. Finally, your remark reminds me of a study one of our researchers did. He studied this editorials published by The Economist on each and every Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress. Every 5 years there is Congress and it will issue editorial, and the conclusion is very comical. He said, basically, you should read and understand in the reverse way. If the editor said this is bad, this is ugly, this is too much problem for China to come. In the end, it’s all positive. So I remember once I met with UN Secretary-General Guterres, and he asked me to recommend English material for him to read. I said, you can read The Economist’s political comments on China, but understand it the reverse way, more or less correct.

George Yeo:
I hope China will encourage Indonesia to give high priority to the Bandung 70 anniversary this year. In Bandung it was not just India and China, because there was also Myanmar. There were so many countries.

Zhang Weiwei:
I think China will be supportive, and we could also do our best to promote it.

George Yeo:
Sure. I think it’s wonderful. It’s a way of maintaining peace in a multi-polar world, mutual respect, mutual benefit.

Zhang Weiwei:
I said, if you look at Xi Jinping’s three Global Initiatives, security, development, and civilization. In fact, that’s really a good case study of China and ASEAN relationship. We have a development initiative. We have a security initiative, and a civilization initiative. It’s a shared future for China and ASEAN. We talk about ASEAN wisdom, Asian wisdom, one step forward, one step backward, strategic patience through dialogue, and there’s Bandung spirit. It was the first time People’s Republic of China went on the global stage and Zhou Enlai became known worldwide.

George Yeo:
Zhou Enlai was charming, was big-hearted, broad-minded, and also he made a very important point around the period that Huaqiao must be loyal to their own country, which is an important statement.

Zhang Weiwei:
It’s important for Southeast Asia.

George Yeo:
In particular.

Zhang Weiwei:

Now they also allow ASEAN citizens to go to Yunnan free of visa, no visa required for Yunnan or Xishuangbanna, that region. There’s a lot of things going on.

George Yeo:
We should think of a way of making Hainan, which is now a free port. You should have some kind of associate status with ASEAN. Why do I say that? Because if you do that, the South China Sea becomes the Mediterranean. It’s no longer a zero-sum game. It is a connecting. It’s like a open field, everybody shares it.

Zhang Weiwei:
Thank you very much.

George Yeo:
Thank you.

Editor: yanghanyi