When Trump uses TSMC as a bargaining chip, when US warships quietly exit the sensitive waters of the Taiwan Strait, and when young people in Taiwan no longer believe the US will send troops… this “abandon Taiwan storm,” interwoven with a debt crisis, political calculation, and industrial dilemmas, is tearing open the last fig leaf of the Taiwan authorities.

What signal is released by the omission of Taiwan in the recent Sino-US trade talks? China’s largest municipal website, Guancha.cn, invited Taiwanese current affairs commentator Lai Yueqian, Shanghai Jiao Tong University Taiwan Research Center Director Sheng Jiuyuan, and distinguished professor Huang Jing from Shanghai International Studies University for a cross-strait dialogue.

Below is a summary of the dialogue.

Huang Jing:

This time there is also a very peculiar phenomenon. In the past, during Sino-US negotiations, especially when releasing joint statements, Taiwan was always a topic. Especially for the Chinese side, they always stated Taiwan is a core interest and an insurmountable red line.

But this time during the Sino-US Geneva trade talks, and in the joint statement and subsequent individual statements, Taiwan was not mentioned. This is very significant. Moreover, shortly after the negotiations ended, Trump casually mentioned in a speech that unity and peace are also good, which startled everyone.

Looking at these two points together, the fact that Taiwan was not mentioned in the Sino-US negotiations and joint statement, while Trump said “unity and peace” is a good thing, leads to some speculation.

Firstly, perhaps this time both sides did not consider Taiwan as a condition in their negotiations, or to put it bluntly, did not place Taiwan as a bargaining chip on the table. This is not a piece of good news for Taiwan, as it means Taiwan’s weight as a bargaining chip is diminishing. Sino-US talks focused on the dominance of the US dollar, tariffs, purchasing American goods, opening markets, etc.

Secondly, for “Taiwan independence” separatists, this is possibly more frightening. It seems as if Sino-US has reached some sort of deal, hence Trump stated that the talks this time were very good for unity and peace.

Regardless, the fact that Taiwan was not mentioned in the Sino-US negotiations has been confirmed. Have the people and authorities in Taiwan noticed this, or have they deliberately ignored it? I would like to hear Mr. Lai’s thoughts on this rather peculiar phenomenon.

Audience Hall of Guan Academy | Taiwanese Current Affairs Commentator Lai Yueqian

Lai Yueqian:

This is indeed a very unusual phenomenon, and I think this is also a demonstration of strength. Because when strength is evident, your claims and positions will be thoroughly accepted by the other party, and they know there’s nothing good from confronting it.

At present, the strength of Mainland China is already apparent. Even in front of a once-strong America, China’s attitude is clear: whoever plays the Taiwan card will meet with no favorable outcome.

I think the US clearly knows that if it continues to play the Taiwan card, not only will tariff negotiations fail, but America will also face even greater sanctions from Mainland China, and their relationship will fully deteriorate. Now, Sino-US relations are almost completely decoupling. If financially the Sino-US completely decouple, then subsequent encounters will be military confrontations.

But America has no absolute confidence in winning a military confrontation with China. America, as a nation, does not dare to take risks where it has no absolute confidence. Since World War II, America has dared not confront strong countries or major powers with equal strength because it can’t afford to lose, doesn’t dare to lose, and must not lose, thus only waging war with smaller, weaker nations.

Whether it’s Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, or Syria, all are small nations. America has never dared to confront the former Soviet Union, nor Russia afterward, let alone today’s Mainland China. Because once it starts a war, America can’t withstand or endure it, and the consequences could be very severe.

Therefore, continuing to play the Taiwan card in such a circumstance is the beginning of a Sino-US clash. Under this situation, the US will not only directly lose its influence over Taiwan but also force South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand to rethink their relationship with the US. The gamble is too big, and America simply dares not play this way.

Hence, steering clear of the Taiwan issue is the most beneficial for the US. This negotiation shows that Mainland China has made it clear to the world that whoever plays the Taiwan card will meet unfavorable results. Since the negotiations, how many countries dare to play the Taiwan card? This trend is very clear. The Taiwan issue will no longer be a topic any country can use to negotiate, transact, or trade with Mainland China. I believe this is a very important turning point.

Huang Jing:

Previously, Taiwan was a pawn, a bargaining chip where money could be earned. Once the Taiwan card was played, you had to pay. But now, putting this chip on the table no longer earns any money, it incurs a loss, and the countermeasures will cost you a lot. Professor Sheng, what do you think about this issue?

Sheng Jiuyuan:

Let me supplement from another angle. Firstly, the absence of the Taiwan issue in Sino-US negotiations is understandable as it pertains only to tariff-related trade issues. We didn’t notice this at first until Trump said unity and peace are good when we paid attention, but it didn’t cause much backlash.

On the contrary, the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party authorities were the first to react, saying the Taiwan issue wasn’t discussed in Sino-US talks, though the US has been asked, and Taiwan was not involved. But if you look at our Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, they just lightly passed over the issue.

So I often say, for Taiwan, it is clearly aware of itself as a pawn, just only declaring itself as the player. When this topic was slightly mentioned by someone, they became very nervous. Who truly worries about Sino-US relations? Who fears being sacrificed by the US? The Taiwan authorities are crystal clear about this, that’s the first point.

Secondly, after Taiwan authorities’ comments, the US did not clarify but simply stated that America’s one-China policy remains unchanged. The US doesn’t bother with it.

At the moment, Lai Ching-te must be uneasy, wondering what these words mean. What’s hidden behind them? People are often most nervous when they don’t know. Until now, I believe the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party authorities are definitely anxious, pondering what exactly is going on. Whether Sino-US reached some special behind-the-scenes deal? This situation perfectly reflects who is the player and who is the pawn; it’s clear at a glance.

Editor: Zhongxiaowen