On October 20th, the United States and Australia signed an $8.5 billion deal to build new rare earth supply chains and circumvent Chinese control. But can this plan actually work?

In this video, we break down the three fundamental reasons why this deal is unlikely to succeed, based on a stark analysis from Professor Wang Xiangsui, Deputy Secretary General of the CITIC Foundation for Reform and Development Studies.

Professor Wang exposes the stark realities that challenge Western optimism:

Geographic Impossibility: Over 70% of the world’s heavy rare earths, essential for defense and tech, are concentrated in China.

Technological Chokepoint: China domains global rare earth refining patents, with new comprehensive controls issued in October 2025.

The AI Bubble’s Vulnerability: The U.S. economy is now overwhelmingly reliant on AI-driven growth. We dive into analysis from Harvard economist Professor Jason Furman, which shows that AI investment accounted for a staggering 92% of U.S. GDP growth in H1 2025.

This dependency creates a critical weak point: Nvidia’s 4.5 trillion-dollar valuation and its advanced GPUs are entirely dependent on TSMC, whose manufacturing, in turn, relies on rare earth elements and technologies controlled by China.