US War with Iran—Is Trump Pulling the Trigger?

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With the U.S. deploying refuelers and warplanes to Europe and the Middle East, signs of direct American involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict are mounting—fueling fears of an imminent war.
June 18, 2025
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According to CNN on June 17, sources report that Trump’s stance on using U.S. military force to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities is growing increasingly hawkish, and his enthusiasm for resolving the Israel–Iran crisis diplomatically is waning. Two officials familiar with internal discussions confirmed that, although Trump has not completely ruled out diplomacy, his current position has shifted significantly toward a more aggressive posture

Amid rapidly escalating tensions, Trump departed from the G7 summit in Canada earlier than planned—an action that fueled speculation. A White House official stated that on June 17, Trump met with his national security team in the Situation Room. Analysts suggest this signals the United States is preparing for military action against Iran.

U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. Image: Visual China Group.

Trump Demands Iran’s ‘Unconditional Surrender’

Amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, Trump cut short his trip to the G7 summit in Canada on the evening of June 16 and returned to Washington—abruptly calling off what was supposed to be his first high-profile appearance on the international stage since returning to the White House.

During a G7 group photo session, Trump told reporters: “I must go back—this is important. You’ve probably seen what I’ve seen, so I have to get back.”

Host Prime Minister Mark Joseph Carney of Canada thanked Trump for his presence and said he “fully understood” his decision. French President Macron commented that ” There is indeed an offer to meet and exchange. An offer was made especially to get a ceasefire and to then kick-start broader discussions,” which Trump promptly contradicted.

“Wrong! He has no idea why I am now on my way to Washington, but it certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that,” Trump added in the post.

Bloomberg also reported that Trump’s Situation Room meeting lasted over an hour, with no immediate White House statement following. Before calling the Situation Room meeting, Trump posted on Truth Social: “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran.”

He further issued threats against Iran’s Supreme Leader: “We know exactly where the so called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target but is safe there. We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.”

Later that afternoon, he tweeted in all caps: “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

Vice President J.D. Vance echoed this on X, saying Trump may “take further action to stop Iran’s uranium enrichment,” and emphasized that such decisions ultimately rest with the President.

Interestingly, in 2023 then-Senator Vance told CBS he “would absolutely not” support military strikes in Iran. He stated: “If they attack us, we must respond—but … strikes on Iranian soil … that would be a major escalation.”

On June 16, Axios reported the White House had been considering diplomatic engagement with Iran that week—possibly including meetings focused on a nuclear deal and ceasefire. U.S. officials had considered offering bunker busting munitions to Israel—“Israel currently lacks such munitions, which are necessary to strike Iran’s deeply buried Fordow enrichment site.”

Trump later denied any peace efforts on social media: “I have not reached out to Iran for “Peace Talks” in any way, shape, or form. This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me.”

Trump Becomes Increasingly Cool on Peace Talks

According to reports from Reuters and The Guardian, the key focus of decision-making in the coming days for both the United States and Israel is expected to be Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, located 90 meters underground. Conventional Israeli weaponry cannot reach such depth, making a U.S. military role critical if an airstrike is to succeed. U.S. military aircraft and naval assets are reportedly being deployed to Europe and the Middle East.

Sources say the Trump administration has relied heavily on Omani intermediaries in recent months to facilitate backchannel communications with Iran, resulting in five rounds of talks aimed at a potential nuclear deal. However, Washington’s strategy began to shift once Israel initiated major operations targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

It remains unclear whether President Trump will ultimately decide to support Israel in fully neutralizing Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Sources familiar with the negotiations say this possibility has become part of high-level discussions—particularly if Iran fails to demonstrate greater willingness to compromise.

Two U.S. officials familiar with the matter told CNN that Trump has become increasingly inclined to authorize military action against Iran’s nuclear sites and is growing less receptive to resolving the escalating conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv through diplomacy.

While sources indicated Trump may still accept a diplomatic solution if Iran offers substantial concessions, his current hawkish stance marks a significant shift in approach. As recently as this past weekend and into Monday, administration officials were still exploring ways to use diplomacy as an “off-ramp.”

But Trump signaled earlier on June 17 that his patience with diplomacy was wearing thin. “I’m not too much in the mood to negotiate with Iran,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One as he returned early from the G7 summit. He added that his objective in Iran was “an end, a real end, not a ceasefire,” or “giving up entirely.”

Asked whether the U.S. military could guarantee the destruction of Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities, Trump responded, “There’s no guarantee in anything.”

He further warned Iran against attacking U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East, saying such a move would dramatically escalate the situation: “We’ll come down so hard, it’d be gloves off”.

Soon after, Trump posted in all caps on social media demanding: “IRAN MUST SURRENDER UNCONDITIONALLY!”

What’s Behind the Emergency Deployment of Refueling Aircraft?

On June 16, Reuters cited two U.S. officials who, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. military has transferred a significant number of aerial refueling tankers to Europe amid mounting tensions between Israel and Iran. The move is widely seen as a step to give President Trump more military options in the Middle East.
Ground footage of a KC-135 Stratotanker flying in formation with F-35 jets

The officials also confirmed that the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz is heading toward the Middle East. The carrier is capable of transporting over 5,000 personnel and more than 60 aircraft, including fighter jets. One of the officials stressed that this was a “pre-planned deployment.”

U.S. officials further revealed that President Trump has abandoned the idea of sending senior American officials to a mutually agreed location in the Middle East for face-to-face talks with Iranian representatives aimed at reaching a diplomatic agreement.

Two sources familiar with internal discussions told CNN that military officials are actively preparing for a possible presidential order directing the U.S. Air Force to provide mid-air refueling support for Israeli fighter jets should they strike Iranian targets. The sources added that this is one of the primary reasons over 30 U.S. aerial refueling tankers have been rapidly deployed to the region in recent days.

While assisting Israeli jets with mid-air refueling is seen as a relatively low-level form of U.S. military involvement, one of the sources emphasized that the broader deployment of refueling tankers is intended to “provide options” to both President Trump and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) should the situation escalate further. Among these options, CENTCOM has reportedly floated the idea of a joint U.S.-Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Israel has long urged greater American involvement in its operations to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Senior Israeli officials argue that such efforts require U.S. weapons systems and aircraft.

An Israeli source with knowledge of internal discussions told reporters that optimism is growing within the Israeli government regarding direct U.S. participation in a potential military campaign against Iran. However, the Trump administration has not yet issued a formal decision on the matter.

Editor: LQQ

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Top picks selected by the China Academy's editorial team from Chinese media, translated and edited to provide better insights into contemporary China.
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Guancha.cn (Chinese: 观察者网; lit. 'Obsr Net') is a privately owned news site based in Shanghai, China.
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  1. R

    To be sovereign or not to be? Let’s iterate the ways. More or less, if nuclear facilities destroyed? More or less, if friends launch nukes for you? More or less, when you leave NPT, then friends donate some starter nukes along with DIY nuke kits? Having generous friends makes for having nice ending days? 😜

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  2. N

    China’s call for reducing the current escalations in the Middle East shows that it is the most rational country on the planet. OTOH Trump demanding an “unconditional surrender” from Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was purposely inflammatory. This is the language used by Pres. Truman, i.e. Japan’s “unconditional surrender” eighty years ago. Unfortunately in 2025, Iran is not anything like Japan. Trump is the madman just like Hitler, his only contribution to ‘peace’ will be escalation. This is in fact happening right now. Hypothetically all that could trigger rogue nuclear warfare. Once it starts, you can’t put Aladdin back into the bottle. Atomic radiation won’t go way for hundreds of thousands of years. Everyone loses, Israel and Iran, aka mutually assured destruction. RIP planet Earth. It doesn’t have to end this way.

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