“Our ocean freight bookings from China to US increased 35% in the first day since the trade deal. A big backlog is looming, soon the ships will be sold out,” wrote Ryan Petersen, founder of Flexport, an American freight forwarder, on social media platform X on the 13th. “Get ready for a shipping boom.”

Over the past one to two months, global maritime shipping—especially the U.S.-China routes—has been heavily affected by U.S. tariffs. According to freight data company Vizion, in the week of April 1, container bookings from China to the U.S. fell 64% from the previous week. Data from Xeneta, which tracks global shipping prices long-term, shows that from January 1 to now, spot shipping rates from China to the U.S. West and East Coasts have dropped 56% and 48%, respectively.

Xu Kai, Chief Information Officer at the Shanghai International Shipping Institute, told Global Times that recent trends in international shipping show container volumes from China to the U.S. peaked in Week 17 of this year (the week of April 21). Given that ocean shipping from China to the U.S. takes three to four weeks, this indicates a wave of “rush shipments” ahead of the so-called “Liberation Day tariffs.” In the two weeks that followed, container volumes fell sharply, clearly impacted by tariff policy.

Xu believes that if China and the U.S. fail to reach a tariff reduction agreement in Geneva, inventory shortages in the U.S. market could become most severe about three months after tariffs take effect—that is, in early July. Light industrial goods such as consumer products and clothing are likely to be hit hardest. As for U.S. exports to China—such as grain and energy products—those already experienced significant declines earlier this year. Based on AIS tracking of bulk carriers, dry bulk shipments from the U.S. to China in March were down over 60% year-on-year. According to the Shanghai International Shipping Institute, U.S. energy exports to China from January through April dropped about 14% year-on-year.

With demand collapsing, many shipping companies have pulled capacity from the U.S.-China route over the past month and redirected it elsewhere. Icarus Tse, Head of Ocean Procurement for Asia-Pacific at Flexport, told Global Times that after April 2, the number of blank sailings, suspensions, and route restructurings on U.S.-China lanes increased. Options for direct routes shrank. “For example, direct calls to Wilmington port in the U.S. have been completely canceled. The Qingdao–New York route has reduced its direct sailings from two per week to just one.”

“A Ray of Warmth for Global Trade”
Industry experts widely believe that these conditions signal a coming spike in global freight rates. “Freight rates from China to the U.S. West Coast could rise by 20% in the short term,” warned Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst at Xeneta. “Shippers will try to move as much cargo as possible to the U.S. during this 90-day window, which will push rates higher.” He added that restoring shipping capacity takes time, and in the short term, shippers may face significantly higher costs.

Xu Kai agrees, noting that U.S. retailers are likely to ramp up stockpiling in the near future. In the short term, container lines could face space shortages, causing a surge in shipping prices—though he cautioned that long-term momentum for price hikes is lacking.

“The joint statement on trade between China and the U.S. brings a ray of warmth to the global trade environment, and the cost pressures exporters faced over the past month will be partly relieved,” the BBC quoted a Hong Kong-based export services provider as saying. He expects business to pick up in the next 90 days. However, concerns remain in the industry. “More than tariffs, it’s the uncertainty that worries us,” Zhu Qiucheng told Global Times. “The U.S. government’s constant flip-flopping on tariffs makes it nearly impossible for companies to make major decisions or long-term plans, like purchasing equipment or expanding production. In some ways, this is more damaging than the tariffs themselves.”

Several industry insiders warned that a prolonged tariff war could force companies to restructure their supply chains, leading to trends like “nearshoring” or “friendshoring.” This would ultimately reduce efficiency across the supply chain—raising the volume of transshipments or forcing buyers to source from more distant markets—thereby lowering the global turnover efficiency of goods and materials. That could boost overall demand for global shipping and push carriers to diversify their market layout by reallocating capacity from U.S. routes to emerging markets, such as those in ASEAN.

Editor: Zhiyu Wang