From May 10 to 11, high-level trade talks between China and the United States were held in Geneva, Switzerland, where both parties agreed to suspend tariff measures for 90 days. According to a report by the South China Morning Post on the 13th, analysts expect that with companies rushing to take advantage of this window to transport goods, container shipments from China to the US West Coast are likely to surge in the coming weeks.

Container shipping information company Linerlytica reported on the 12th that the easing of trade tensions has come sooner than many anticipated, which will drive a surge in trans-Pacific freight over the next three months. As the rebound in freight volume coincides with the US’s traditional summer shopping season, shipping fees are expected to soar in the near term.

It is reported that carriers have announced ahead of time that a trans-Pacific peak season surcharge of $1,000 to $2,000 per forty-foot container (FEU) will be imposed as early as May 15. This means that the FEU shipping rate to the US West Coast will rise to over $3,500.

Lars Jensen, founder of shipping company Vespucci Maritime, noted that given many companies have a backlog of goods, shipping demand will significantly increase. He pointed out that the 90-day suspension will end in the middle of the US summer shopping season, so US importers might seize the opportunity to stockpile more goods in the coming months.

Due to the impact of the tariff policy by the Trump administration, the volume of goods at US ports has sharply declined in recent weeks. However, Jensen warned that a surge in freight may lead to congestion in US ports within three to six weeks.

Local time May 9, Los Angeles Port, California, USA

CNBC also cited industry insiders stating that during the 90-day tariff suspension, many US companies will rapidly resume importing Chinese goods. Paul Brashier, Vice President of ITS Logistics, said, “I have customers who have preloaded thousands of containers in China, ready to ship at any time.”

Rick Muskat, President of US footwear retailer Deer Stags, stated that after the tariff reduction, Chinese suppliers can resume shipments, but the sharply increased shipping demand will also lead to rising freight rates. “Our costs will rise by nearly 40%, so we will have to raise prices for fall deliveries.”

Eric Byer, CEO of the National Association of Chemical Distributors, revealed that the tariff war has damaged the US chemical supply chain, and many companies are at risk of inventory shortages. “I suspect we will see a very active ordering frenzy, potentially leading to a situation where there are not enough ships to meet demand.”

Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, stated, “The 90-day suspension of tariff measures between the U.S. and China is good news for consumers, American businesses, workers, and the supply chain.” He hopes both China and the USA can work together to reach a long-term agreement to avoid trade disruption and uncertainty.

Danish shipping giant Maersk announced on the 12th that they are working to assist customers in fully utilizing the 90-day window. The company stated in a release, “The agreement between China and the US is a step in the right direction, and we hope it will lay the foundation for a long-term deal that creates the long-term predictability our customers need.”

In addition, the South China Morning Post noted that as vessel capacity returns to trans-Pacific routes, other regions’ routes are also expected to benefit. By midday on the 13th, container freight index futures contracts for June and August from Shanghai to European ports had risen by 7.86% and 12.79%, respectively.

Editor: Zhongxiaowen