U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf region from May 13 to 16 focused heavily on the economic agenda, with major deals signed at every stop—most notably in Qatar. According to the White House, Trump secured $1.2 trillion in economic commitments during his stay in Qatar, including more than $243.5 billion in trade and investment agreements. This staggering figure stands in stark contrast to the country’s small size: Qatar covers just 11,500 square kilometers, has a population of around 3 million, and a GDP of just over $200 billion. The enormous deals promised by such a small nation raise questions about what’s real and what’s not behind the headline numbers.

Lavish But Targeted Spending

In the economic sector, the most significant highlight was Qatar’s purchase of 210 Boeing wide-body aircraft, valued at approximately $96 billion. This represents the largest order for wide-body jets in Boeing’s history and was hailed by the White House as a “historic breakthrough.” President Trump claimed the deal would support 154,000 American jobs annually. For Boeing, a company grappling with severe challenges, this massive order could play a crucial role in its recovery. For Qatar, which has long aimed to position itself as a regional and global transportation hub, expanding its fleet and boosting the capacity of Qatar Airways is a natural step in reinforcing that role.

In the military sector, the breakthrough came with Qatar’s signing of a $2 billion deal with General Atomics for MQ-9B drones and a $1 billion agreement with Raytheon for counter-drone systems. This makes Qatar the first country in the Middle East to deploy both advanced offensive and defensive drone systems, significantly enhancing its ability to respond to unconventional aerial threats. It also aligns with Washington’s strategic push to deepen the Gulf security alliance. For years, U.S. concerns about the proliferation of drones and missiles led to strict controls on drone exports to the region—leaving a vacuum that was increasingly filled by Turkey and China. This landmark drone deal suggests the Trump administration may now be preparing a broader push into the Middle East drone market.

In the technology sphere, a novel development came as Qatar’s Al Rabban Capital entered into a joint venture with U.S.-based quantum computing company Quantinuum. Qatar has pledged to invest $1 billion over the next ten years into this partnership, aiming to co-develop quantum computing applications tailored to regional needs in fields such as renewable energy and financial services. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been battling for dominance in artificial intelligence, Qatar is carving out its own path by betting on quantum computing, hoping to secure a niche in high-tech innovation and accelerate its national development. As Abdulaziz Khalid Al Rabban, the chairman of Al Rabban Capital noted, “This is a defining moment in Qatar’s ambition to become a regional hub for advanced technologies like quantum computing.”

Behind the Big Numbers

The eye-catching figure of $1.2 trillion was described on the White House website as a “economic commitment”—a notably broad term that may encompass trade, investment, and various other forms of economic engagement. It would be inaccurate, however, to interpret the entire $1.2 trillion as the total value of newly signed contracts and memoranda of understanding secured during Trump’s visit. According to the deliverables listed by the White House, the more precise figure for actual U.S.-Qatar commercial deals stands at $243.5 billion.

Take the Boeing aircraft order, for example: given Boeing’s backlog of orders in recent years and the fact that the 777X model has yet to be certified by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, the delivery of the planes ordered by Qatar will be significantly delayed. This introduces considerable uncertainty into the fulfillment of the contract. Likewise, major cooperation projects—such as Qatar’s plans to expand its LNG production capacity—are unlikely to materialize in the short term.

The U.S.-Qatar cooperation list also includes numerous non-binding letters of intent. One such example is the purported “$38 billion in potential investments” to support activities related to Al Udeid Air Base. The statement fails to clarify what exactly the support entails, how costs would be shared, or whether the “potential” investment will ever be realized—it’s a promise still lacking concrete details.

Moreover, in international business, it is not uncommon to repackage previously signed or implemented agreements as part of a new portfolio of deals. The U.S.-Qatar cooperation list includes such examples. For instance, the $8.5 billion partnership between U.S. company McDermott and Qatar Energy incorporates engineering services and equipment sales agreements originally signed during the Biden administration.

Strategic Calculations Behind the Deals

Whether the agreements involve genuine contracts and cooperation or potentially inflated figures, the appearance of a major deal results from deliberate efforts on both sides.

Trump is primarily concerned with domestic optics. On the one hand, his willingness to visit Qatar and sign massive deals does show a level of respect toward the country. Qatar hosts Al Udeid Air Base, the United States’ most critical air command center in the Middle East. It also maintains unique channels with the Afghan Taliban, the Assad regime in Syria, and even Hamas—making it a key intermediary in America’s engagements with these actors. But more crucially, Trump wants to bring home large-scale deals to showcase his commitment to “Make America Great Again” and reassure his voter base. He also wants to use these eye-catching numbers to reaffirm his image as the world’s most skilled dealmaker.

Qatar, for its part, exhibits a strong instinct for both alignment and competition. As a small state navigating the perilous terrain of the Middle East, Qatar’s survival strategy relies on clinging closely to powerful allies. “Buying security” has become its default choice. When dealing with a money-minded figure like Trump, Qatar is willing to spend even more generously to win his favor.

At the same time, Qatar is competing with regional rivals like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While the Gulf states currently present a united front, past internal rivalries still loom large. Qatar’s relationship with Saudi Arabia remains especially complex. The two diverge ideologically over issues such as the Muslim Brotherhood and hold different positions toward Iran and Turkey. In 2017, Saudi Arabia led a coalition including the UAE in imposing a diplomatic and economic blockade on Qatar, sparking the “Gulf Crisis.” At that time, President Trump appeared to take sides. Though reconciliation has since taken place, Qatar’s mistrust of Riyadh has never fully disappeared.

This helps explain Qatar’s $1.2 trillion in economic commitments and $243.5 billion in trade deals—figures that surpass those signed by Trump in Saudi Arabia. Qatar’s $96 billion order for Boeing aircraft dwarfs Saudi Arabia’s $4.8 billion leasing deal. These numbers are clearly designed to ensure that Trump remains neutral—or even leans toward Doha—rather than favoring Riyadh.

It becomes evident that neither Trump nor Qatar is overly concerned with how realistic or executable these mega-deals truly are. What matters most is the messaging power: the publicity they generate, the political signals they send, and the expectations they shape. That may well be the most fundamental expression of Trump’s “Art of the Deal.”

Editor: LQQ