TikTok Refugees Knocked Down the ‘Berlin Wall’

TikTok is dying fast. Even if a miracle were to happen now, TikTok’s last-minute reprieve would be too late. Because the real security threat from the United States has arrived.

In world history, there are many powerful countries with a back-and-forth power play, but the United States is the first “artificial country” in the history of powerful nations: the United States was built by immigrants from the plains. Of course, this is politically incorrect to say, as it disregards the Indigenous people of the Americas. But the fact is: the Indigenous people had little influence on the formation and trajectory of modern America.

This means that the foundation of the United States is not the dollar, not the military, but institutional confidence.

The confidence of the United States can be summarized by a phrase on the Statue of Liberty:

Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!

This is confidence, inclusivity, and hope. These words have inspired those fleeing religious and political persecution, those fleeing economic hardship, and of course, those fleeing trouble with the law. Today, the extent to which the United States still fits this summary is highly debatable, but at least Americans are more inclined to believe than doubt.

For the United States, institutional confidence comes first, followed by national strength. Compared to the Mayflower and the wave of European immigrants, the rise of the United States came later, with its dominance in the world largely established after World War II.

The Cold War was a milestone in the history of superpower competition, and George Kennan is remembered for it. However, the core of the Cold War was “cold” rather than “war.” From the very beginning, George Kennan proposed that the United States should exploit the Soviet Union’s suspicions and insecurities, using overwhelming economic and cultural advantages, patience, and moral strength to internally crack the Soviet Union; political and military containment were only secondary measures.

Starting from the Truman era, the United States’ security strategy deviated from Kennan’s thinking, focusing more on political and military containment, with economic and cultural pressure as secondary, which became the general understanding of the Cold War. Therefore, the “father of the Cold War,” Kennan, spent his life opposing the United States’ Cold War strategy, against the excessive militarization of national security strategy, but he was silenced, left to stew in his own frustration. It wasn’t until the victory of the Cold War that George H.W. Bush, representing the “deep state,” awarded Kennan the prestigious Freedom Medal for civilian personnel on behalf of the United States, and people suddenly realized that there could have been another way to fight the Cold War.

However, Kennan’s approach had its own prerequisites, which were national strength and institutional confidence. National strength is practical, while institutional confidence is more abstract; one cannot be lacking without the other. The shift in the United States’ security strategy towards political and military containment as the primary focus ultimately reflects a lack of national strength and institutional confidence.

Fast forward to today, the United States has lost much of its national strength. In terms of the U.S. dollar, the depreciation of the Chinese yuan has led to China’s nominal GDP stagnating relative to the United States, even declining. However, in terms of GDP measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), China has long surpassed the United States in representing material wealth, with the gap continuing to widen, now leading by 25%. The service sector accounts for 80% of the U.S. GDP, while China’s is only 51.6%. Looking solely at the manufacturing sector’s GDP PPP, China is already leading the United States by 3:1.

In physical terms, China’s electricity generation is twice that of the United States, steel production is 12.6 times higher, cement production is 22 times higher, and China accounts for over half of the world’s shipbuilding, while the United States only contributes 1.2%. China produces 30.2 million cars, selling 26 million domestically, whereas the United States produces 15.5 million cars, with a similar domestic sales figure; U.S. car exports are not as significant. Chinese consumers bought 434 million mobile phones, compared to 144 million by Americans; Chinese meat consumption is double that of Americans, and seafood consumption is eight times higher. Therefore, it is generally believed that the lead in “actual GDP” is not just 25%, but should be between 25% and 3:1.

Even in the field of artificial intelligence, where the United States considers itself a leader, DeepSeek v2 has startled the U.S. China’s computational power, considered a “disadvantage,” has achieved performance at least equal to that of ChatGPT, diminishing the significance of the U.S.’s “chip advantage.” The competition between iPhone and Huawei cannot be solely determined by the 3nm technology.

In the military field, the sixth-generation aircraft from China and Russia is revolutionary, yet mainstream American and British media choose to turn a blind eye.

Similarly overlooked are the masses of TikTok refugees flooding platforms like RedNote (Little Red Book).

In China, this has already become a phenomenon, and it is also being widely discussed outside of America and Britain. However, mainstream American and British media choose to ignore it. In America and Britain, if one is not following social media closely, they may not have heard about this at all. Only BBC Chinese ambiguously questions how long this kind of “no distinction between domestic and foreign” situation can last.

In many aspects, TikTok represents China’s “Sputnik moment,” rather than hypersonic technology or sixth-generation aircraft, while RedNote signifies the “Gagarin moment.”

“Sputnik moment” and “Gagarin moment” have never been solely about technology; they are more about psychology. The immense psychological gap from the United States’ “of course, I’m number one” to doubting “can I still be number two” is significant.

However, in the 1950s and 1960s, the United States still had institutional confidence, highlighted by Nixon’s “Kitchen Debate” victory, which was the greatest source of confidence for the United States to win the Cold War. Kennan was right.

But today, the United States’ institutional confidence is wavering.

A superior system must bring wealth to the people and strength to the nation. The various “decadent delights” in America need not be elaborated on. While China’s wealth and strength have not yet met people’s expectations, the enormous progress compared to historical conditions is indisputable. Disparities still exist in various aspects, but in the past, these comparisons were irrelevant, much like how “I” would never compare myself to Fan Zhendong in table tennis, as it wouldn’t even cross my mind. However, in increasingly more aspects, China is becoming Fan Zhendong, while the West is becoming “me.” For Western political and media circles, the decline of the West and the rise of the East is an embarrassing reality that needs to be avoided.

Politically, the West can only save face by forcefully claiming, as Sullivan did, that “America has become stronger, and China weaker,” but who knows if he truly believes this. Due to cultural arrogance and political reasons, mainstream Western media forcibly cover up the “elephant in the room” that is China, causing a stir with every move China makes within the room. However, for the ordinary public who cannot see through this invisibility cloak, they truly cannot understand what is happening in the world.

“China has deceived us” was once a popular accusation, and “China has taken our jobs” was another. China vehemently denies these claims, but it’s all a dance inside the invisibility cloak. The average Western public cannot see it.

However, they are gradually beginning to feel it.

First came the overwhelming presence of Chinese manufacturing, followed by Chinese software like TikTok. Regardless of how TikTok is packaged, its “Chinese face” cannot be erased, which is TikTok’s original sin. This original sin ultimately led to TikTok’s demise. However, the process of its demise might ultimately affect the United States as well.

Many Americans don’t care about TikTok’s Chinese origins; if it’s fun and useful, that’s enough. Some do care and find it hard to believe that such a good thing could come from an unfree, undemocratic China. Isn’t software supposed to thrive in a soil of freedom and democracy? Nevertheless, the fun and usefulness of TikTok ultimately outweigh more distant ideological doubts.

Yet, for reasons still unclear to this day, after many twists and turns, the United States finally took drastic action and banned TikTok.

National security was just an excuse. If that were the real reason, TikTok should have been shut down years ago rather than allowing China to probe the U.S. and manipulate U.S. elections for a few more years. It doesn’t make sense. This isn’t about catching spies; keeping them around without catching them just exposes more hidden spies. Keeping TikTok around is like trying to reveal Pinduoduo, Shein, and Alibaba.

Generalized national security is not national security, being overly sensitive is not being vigilant, and treating theoretical remote possibilities as urgent dangers is nothing but hysteria in the face of imaginary threats. Anyone with even a bit of sense understands this. While America’s national strength and institutional confidence may be eroding, there is still some intelligence left. One can only say that in the process of rebuilding relative U.S.-China relations, revitalizing America is too difficult, while tarnishing China is easier. Let’s take the easy path first and worry about effectiveness later.

However, this will also chip away at the remaining institutional confidence in America. 170 million Americans knowingly use TikTok, a Chinese app, disregarding the repeated warnings from the U.S. government and media about the “Chinese threat,” abandoning platforms like Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and WhatsApp in favor of TikTok, which is accused of “stealing American privacy” and “jeopardizing U.S. national security.” From the perspective of institutional confidence, this may not necessarily indicate a lack of confidence in the American system, but it certainly doesn’t oppose the Chinese system either.

Recently, RedNote has surged to the top of the download charts in the Five Eyes nations. This rise can be attributed to the protests by “TikTok refugees” against the closure of TikTok, as well as their ultimate leap into the realm of “Virtual China.” While TikTok remains a social platform “from China, for the United States,” RedNote is a social platform “from China, for China.” Apart from overseas students, the thought of attracting such overwhelming traffic from Europe and America may have never crossed their minds. For the “TikTok refugees,” crossing the hurdle of using Chinese software was a done deal, but stepping into the world of “Virtual China” was a leap that required the aid of translation tools.

TikTok users share their experience on RedNote.

“We’ve been told by our government that China is stealing our data, which is why TikTok needs to be banned. But we want to say, compared to America, we trust China more with our data. This is my data; here, China, take it.” This sentiment encompasses not only protests against the U.S. ban on TikTok but also a newfound willingness to let go of apprehensions about China. For instance, no one would speak in this manner about well-known online scams.

Is this the beginning of a lack of confidence in the American system? It’s hard to say, but dogmas crumble in the face of truth, and apostates possess the greatest power to disrupt.

Since the Obama era, social media has played an increasingly significant role in American elections, leading to mainstream media being overturned in 2016 and 2024. This shift is largely due to a growing number of people choosing not to trust mainstream media. It’s not surprising; surveys indicate that in the 2016 election, 96% of journalists donated to Hillary Clinton, and while there’s no data for 2024, it wouldn’t be surprising if a majority of journalists supported Kamala Harris. The neutrality of their reporting is highly questionable. Americans live in America, experiencing and witnessing the real America, sharing and shaping perceptions through social platforms, diminishing the influence of mainstream media. This is the reason for the increasing absurdity in recent elections.

It’s believed that if American media professionals were to vote on the U.S.-China narrative, it would also be a 96% landslide in favor of the U.S. Americans’ stereotypical impressions of China as a “police state where people are miserable” are closely intertwined with mainstream media.

The ban on TikTok shattered Americans’ superstitions about freedom of speech and institutional confidence, while RedNote opened a window for Americans (and many others) to understand China, eventually leading to the sharing and shaping of perceptions about China. This process didn’t begin with grand narratives like high-speed trains or sixth-generation aircraft but with everyday considerations like groceries. Just as Nixon skillfully used household appliances in the “Kitchen Debate” to illustrate the superiority of the American system over China, RedNote users accomplish the same through their intuition, wisdom, emotions, and needs. Most importantly, these users don’t need to search, fabricate, or pretend; examples are right at their fingertips. Reality always carries the most persuasive power.

Interestingly, the “TikTok refugees” come from all walks of life, from students to housewives, from laborers to police officers, and even military personnel. They are not the elite; they represent the true “silent majority.” How long they will stay on RedNote is an intriguing question; what they will gain from RedNote and to what extent they will influence the platform is an even more compelling question. The most intriguing question, however, is to what extent they will change America’s social media landscape and societal mentality.

It’s worth noting that the victory of the “TikTok clan” over the “TikTok skeptics” may signify a profound change in American political dynamics. Here, the “TikTok clan” represents a broad grassroots movement, while the “TikTok skeptics” embody a more elite and knowledgeable faction. It has long been said that Trump vs. Harris is a battle between grassroots and elites, surpassing mere party politics.

The surge in traffic to RedNote can either bring fortune or misfortune. To navigate these turbulent waters successfully, RedNote must maintain a balance of “unity in diversity” while ensuring some level of management. Community norms must be upheld, and activities that violate Chinese laws cannot be tolerated. Most importantly, RedNote should retain its “everyday people” appeal in lifestyle, dining, and travel, steering clear of politicization. While challenging, this goal is not unattainable.

The “TikTok refugees” may face some challenges in adjusting, but each place has its own rules, and refugees must abide by the rules of their haven. Currently, engaging in discussions, paying cat tax, sharing child-rearing experiences, reconciling accounts, and doing homework for each other are all positive activities. Travel could become the next hot topic, which aligns with the essence of RedNote.

Since the Beijing Olympics era, China has grappled with how to assert its voice. China doesn’t need the global narrative on everything; it simply requires control over domestic affairs. However, official external propaganda efforts have been largely ineffective, and issues persist with Confucius Institutes. Students studying abroad and immigrants have brought about some changes, but not enough. The “RedNote moment” presents a rare opportunity; failing to seize it may lead to repercussions.

Editor: Leo Cai