The Presidential Executive Order by Trump is Providing Opportunities for China

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As Trump hastens to withdraw from international agreements like the WHO and Paris Agreement, China sees an opportunity to fill the leadership void in public health and climate change on the global stage. Analysts suggest this shift could come with new challenges for China while offering economic and political advantages.
January 22, 2025
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【This article was translated by AI and originally published on China’s largest political website, Guancha.cn.】

As soon as Trump took office, he eagerly began the process of withdrawing from key international agreements in his second term.

“China’s opportunity as Trump exits WHO and Paris Agreement?” Hong Kong’s English-language media South China Morning Post reported on January 21, quoting analysts who say China has a stronger sense of responsibility towards national and global public health compared to Trump. Trump’s withdrawal decisions may severely impact global climate change and public health governance, leaving a “leadership vacuum” for China to fill. Some scholars believe that while global climate and public health leadership might naturally shift to China, it will also face new challenges.

On the day of his inauguration, Trump signed executive orders to withdraw from the WHO and the Paris Agreement, though the official withdrawal process takes about a year.

Nearly 200 countries have signed the Paris Agreement, an international treaty on climate change aiming to limit global warming. However, Trump blames China, telling supporters, “America will not harm its industries while China gets away with pollution.” In the executive order withdrawing from the WHO, Trump again denigrated China, claiming that the WHO’s mishandling of the “COVID-19 pandemic, supposedly originating from Wuhan, China, and other global health crises,” proved it to be politically influenced.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded on January 21, expressing concern over the U.S. decision to exit the Paris Agreement. “Climate change is a common challenge for all humanity, no country can stay out of it, nor can any country succeed alone,” he said.

On January 20, 2025, Washington D.C., USA, President Trump signs an executive order. Visual China

Alex Wang, a law professor specializing in China’s environmental governance at UCLA, indicates that the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will damage global climate change efforts, but it offers China a chance to gain economic and political advantages by taking leadership on climate issues.

“At this critical moment, Trump’s actions allow China to innovate and lead in climate governance,” he said.

In recent years, China has made positive strides in addressing climate change and contributing to global climate governance. As noted by the South China Morning Post, China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and peak carbon by 2030.

Wang adds that individual U.S. states like California can continue advancing climate actions, but a federal pullback is harmful.

Pang Zhongying, a senior visiting fellow at the Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, agrees that due to China’s consistent support for green industries, it can more easily assume a leadership role in the climate sector. He states that China will continue to address climate change and has actively promoted governance in this field since at least 2015.

Regarding the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO, China has expressed strong support for the WHO. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo reiterated that as a global authority and professional institution in public health, the WHO plays a central and coordinating role in global health governance. The WHO’s role should only be strengthened, not weakened. China will continue supporting the WHO’s mission, deepen international public health cooperation, strengthen global health governance, and promote a community of shared health for mankind.

The WHO has stated that it plays a crucial role in protecting the health and safety of people worldwide, including Americans. The WHO hopes the U.S. will reconsider and looks forward to constructive dialogue with the new U.S. administration to maintain a partnership for the health and well-being of millions globally.

This is not Trump’s first attempt to withdraw the U.S. from the WHO. During his first term in 2020, the Trump administration notified the WHO of its intention to withdraw, a decision later reversed by his successor, President Biden.

Pang Zhongying believes that considering the U.S. has been the WHO’s largest “cash cow,” its withdrawal would undeniably harm the organization, and China might struggle to fill this leadership vacuum.

“The U.S. withdrawal is a major shock, as it plays an irreplaceable role in this international organization,” he said. “China may increase its contributions to the WHO, but whether it can fill the gap left by the U.S. remains to be seen.”

According to the WHO’s website, the organization’s funding mainly comes from two sources: assessed contributions from member and associate member states, and voluntary contributions. Assessed contributions are based on each country’s population and GDP. Voluntary contributions are not limited to member states; international organizations, NGOs, charitable organizations, academic institutions, etc., can also donate, and they may specify particular health areas.

The United States has long been the largest donor to the WHO, with nearly one-fifth of the organization’s 2023 budget coming from the U.S. According to official WHO data, in the 2024-2025 biennial budget, the U.S. contributions will account for 22% of the total assessed contributions, approximately $260 million, with China ranking second at 15.255%.

Pang also notes that American NGOs, such as the Gates Foundation, currently the WHO’s second-largest donor, will continue to influence the organization.

It’s worth noting that while the U.S. criticizes the WHO’s performance, it continually obstructs its work. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. not only maliciously delayed payments but also exerted pressure on WHO personnel through various means, attempting to establish “American-style rules” for virus tracing and treating the WHO as a geopolitical tool.

WHO budget documents for 2024-2025, WHO.

Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor at East China Normal University’s School of Politics and International Relations, suggests leadership in global climate and public health may naturally shift to China but will face new challenges.

“China has a stronger sense of responsibility towards national and global public health compared to Trump,” Mahoney says. “Yet, even with robust support from China, the WHO still faces difficulties effectively mitigating global crises like pandemics, necessitating further measures to prepare for future outbreaks.”

As early as last November, American media covered related topics. The Washington Post noted that China is taking a leadership role in climate change and global economic governance. With Trump potentially exiting international agreements again upon returning to the White House, China might fill the void left by the U.S., becoming a stable and reliable leader in a multipolar world.

The article adds that due to concerns over U.S. withdrawals, many countries hope for increased Chinese leadership. Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UN Climate Change Secretariat, called on China to signal emission reductions to other countries. “We need China to continue its leadership,” he urged.

Evan Medeiros, a China expert at Georgetown University, states, “During Trump’s first term, the rest of the world saw those four years as short-lived and could endure them. But a second Trump term indicates a possible shift in U.S. direction, which is an opportunity for China.”

The article mentions besides climate issues, China is actively taking leadership in the United Nations, global economic governance, nuclear policy, etc., potentially filling the void left by the U.S. and becoming a stable, reliable international leader in a multipolar world.

Editor: Zhongxiaowen

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