On August 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin landed on the islands to inspect the Southern Kuril Islands. This was the first time in the 26 years since he took control of Russia that he had visited the archipelago, and it was also his second inspection of the Sakhalin region after 2013.
The local government of the Southern Kuril Islands had previously always hoped that Putin would come for an inspection visit, and Putin had also promised that he would visit. This itinerary had been unable to materialize for a long time, mainly because he had still held expectations for improving Russia-Japan bilateral relations and did not want to take actions that would overly stimulate Japan. However, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan’s sanctions against Russia became increasingly intensified, and Putin no longer had any hope regarding this. Therefore, this time he finally fulfilled this promise.
Although in November 2010, then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had landed on the islands to conduct an inspection (Putin was the prime minister at the time), this was completely incomparable with the personal prestige and political influence possessed by Putin. Therefore, Putin’s landing on the islands this time immediately triggered strong protests from Japan, and Russia-Japan bilateral relations once again fell into tension.
Recently, Putin has been carrying out a series of inspection activities in Russia’s Siberian and Far Eastern regions. On the 12th, he boarded the Russian Pacific Fleet’s flagship missile cruiser Varyag in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, the capital of Sakhalin Oblast, observed the Pacific Fleet’s military exercises, and also held a working meeting with senior military officials including the fleet commander.
During this process, Putin emphasized that Russia would not pose a threat to Japan and had not made any demands against Japan. The side that truly has territorial demands is precisely Japan. On the contrary, Japan used the situation in Ukraine as a reason to impose sanctions on Russia without clarifying the root causes of the outbreak of the conflict. Japan’s recently released Defense White Paper even listed Russia as one of the major sources of threats.
On the 13th, Putin arrived at Iturup Island (called Etorofu Island by Japan), the largest island in the Southern Kuril Islands. After landing on the island, he first visited a local seafood processing factory, and afterward inspected the schools and hospitals on the island.
Videos released by Russian officials on social media showed that Putin also communicated with local residents and sighed that “the weather is very good today.” The local residents responded that such sunny weather was actually very rare, and that it was Putin’s arrival that brought good weather.
On the afternoon of the 13th, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed a strong protest regarding Putin’s landing on the island at a press conference. Takaichi claimed that the Southern Kuril Islands (called the “Northern Territories” by Japan) belong to Japan’s “inherent territory,” and that Russia’s action this time was something Japan “absolutely cannot accept.”
She also stated that Putin’s landing on the island further damaged Japanese people’s impression of Russia and made it even more difficult for relations between the two countries to recover in the medium and long term.
On the same day, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi summoned the Russian ambassador to Japan and formally lodged a protest against Putin’s visit to the disputed islands. Japan’s right-wing media outlet Sankei Shimbun even openly called on the Japanese government to recall its ambassador to Russia, in order to send the strongest possible diplomatic signal to Russia.
The total area of the Southern Kuril Islands is 5,038 square kilometers. According to their size, they are, in order: Iturup Island, Kunashir Island, Shikotan Island, and the Habomai Islands (their geographical distribution is also roughly from north to south). At present, the population is approximately 18,000 people. Looking back at history, the issue of ownership of the Southern Kuril Islands can be traced back to the middle of the 19th century, when Japan and Russia were engaged in intense colonial competition in East Asia.
In 1855, the two countries signed the Treaty of Commerce, Navigation and Delimitation between Japan and Russia, confirming the waters between Iturup Island and Urup Island as the boundary between the two countries. Iturup Island was assigned to Japan, while Urup Island and the Kuril Islands to its north were assigned to Russia.
By 1875, the two sides once again signed the Treaty for the Exchange of Sakhalin for the Kurile Islands, under which the entire island of Sakhalin (Karafuto) was assigned to Russia, while the Kuril Islands were completely assigned to Japan.
In 1905, after the end of the Russo-Japanese War, Japan and Russia signed the Treaty of Portsmouth in the United States, clearly stipulating that the southern part of Sakhalin Island would be assigned to Japan.
From this, it can be seen that according to the relevant treaties, before World War II the Southern Kuril Islands were under Japanese administration, and Russia did not put forward sovereignty claims over them.
From a legal perspective, the issue of ownership of the Southern Kuril Islands is closely related to three major international documents, namely the Yalta Agreement, the Potsdam Proclamation, and the Treaty of San Francisco.
In February 1945, at the Yalta Conference, the United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union reached an agreement, deciding that the Soviet Union would declare war on Japan within three months after the end of the war in Europe and would obtain sovereignty over the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin Island.
Subsequently, in August 1945, the United States, Britain, and China issued the Potsdam Proclamation, demanding that Japan abandon all rights, titles, and claims over the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin Island. Japan’s sovereignty would be limited only to Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, and such minor islands as the Allies would determine.
On August 9, 1945, the Soviet Union fulfilled the agreement and declared war on Japan, and between August 28 and September 5 occupied the Southern Kuril Islands.
On August 14, Japan officially accepted the Potsdam Proclamation, and on August 15 announced its unconditional surrender.
In September 1951, the Treaty of San Francisco was signed. Forty-eight countries and Japan reached an agreement, officially ending the state of war and confirming that Japan renounced all rights to the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin Island.
Since then, the Southern Kuril Islands issue has become a huge obstacle in Japan-Soviet (and subsequently Japan-Russia) relations. The positions of both sides on this issue have never come close.
Japan believes that the Southern Kuril Islands are Japan’s inherent territory, and that the Soviet Union’s occupation of these islands ignored international law and was an obvious act of aggression. Japan regards the Yalta Agreement as an invalid secret agreement that does not possess legal effect.
Japan also points out that the Southern Kuril Islands do not belong to the Kuril Islands mentioned in the Potsdam Proclamation and the Treaty of San Francisco. Rather, they are territories south of the boundary line historically confirmed by Japan and Russia, and therefore should not have been taken away.
Japan demands that the Soviet Union unconditionally return the four islands and, on this basis, sign a peace treaty with it.
In contrast, the Soviet Union at that time (and Russia afterward) has insisted that the Yalta Agreement, as an international treaty, possesses legal effect and has already received recognition from multiple countries.
The Southern Kuril Islands are part of the Kuril Islands mentioned in the Potsdam Proclamation and the Treaty of San Francisco. They are territories legally obtained by the Soviet Union during World War II and are the fruits of victory in the anti-fascist war. Japan had already abandoned all rights to these islands.
Therefore, the Soviet Union refused to return the Southern Kuril Islands to Japan, and this position would never be loosened.
For precisely this reason, the two countries have still been unable to sign a peace treaty until today.
This dispute has not only clearly affected the political relations between Japan and Russia, but has also left a profound imprint in the economic and military fields.
From an economic perspective, the strategic value of the Southern Kuril Islands cannot be underestimated. The waters surrounding the islands are rich in fishery resources, oil, natural gas, rare earths, and metal resources. If they can be developed, they will bring substantial economic returns to both sides.
In addition, the Southern Kuril Islands are an important passage connecting the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic Ocean. If effective maritime transportation and trade cooperation can be established, it will certainly expand market opportunities for both countries and enhance their regional influence.
However, the territorial dispute has made economic cooperation between the two countries extremely difficult. For example, the Japanese government prohibits Japanese companies from participating in Russia’s development of the Southern Kuril Islands, while Russia conducts strict reviews and supervision over Japanese investment.
Such measures have not only harmed the interests of enterprises in both countries, but have also reduced mutual economic trust and willingness to cooperate.
From a military perspective, the strategic significance of the Southern Kuril Islands is also impossible to ignore.
For Russia, the Southern Kuril Islands are an important military base in its Far East region and an important supporting point for maintaining security in the Pacific and ensuring strategic balance. Russia has deployed land, sea, and air forces on these islands, including a series of military forces such as nuclear submarines, in order to strengthen its control over the islands and enhance its deterrence capability in surrounding areas.
For Japan, the Southern Kuril Islands are not only a symbol of territorial integrity and national sovereignty, but also an important port area for Japan to maintain security in Northeast Asia and guarantee its strategic position.
Among the Southern Kuril Islands, Iturup Island is the most important. The deep-water port on the island has enormous military value. During World War II, the fleet that Japan used to launch the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor gathered and departed from here.
Regardless of military or strategic considerations, this island has always been the focus of competition between the two sides.
In Japan’s view, if it can recover the Southern Kuril Islands, it will help further consolidate security cooperation with allies such as the United States, and enhance Japan’s strategic autonomy and voice in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, the existence of the territorial dispute has caused confrontation between the two countries in the military field to become increasingly intense.
Japan has continuously strengthened its military deployment in Hokkaido and enhanced joint exercises and intelligence sharing with allies such as the United States. Russia, meanwhile, has continuously increased its military deployment in the Southern Kuril Islands and deepened strategic coordination and military cooperation with countries such as China.
Russia has conducted joint naval and air patrols with China in the Sea of Japan. These actions have not only intensified mutual distrust between the two sides, but have also increased the risk of military conflict.
In fact, the Southern Kuril Islands issue is not without the possibility of resolution.
As early as after the signing of the Treaty of San Francisco, Japan had continuously sought to negotiate with the Soviet Union and sign a peace treaty in order to resolve this territorial issue.
However, the positions of both sides regarding the ownership of the two largest islands, Iturup Island and Kunashir Island, were fundamentally impossible to bring closer. (These two islands account for 92.9 percent of the total area of the Southern Kuril Islands.)
Therefore, in 1956, the two sides could only first issue a joint declaration, announcing the end of the state of war and the restoration of diplomatic relations.
The declaration clearly stated that from then on, the two sides would strive to sign a peace treaty through negotiations.
At that time, the Soviet Union promised that after the signing of the peace treaty, it would return the Habomai Islands and Shikotan Island.
In 1960, Japan and the United States revised the Japan-US Security Treaty. The two sides clearly intended to expand their military presence in the Far East region through this treaty, threatening peace and stability in the region.
In view of this, the Soviet Union clearly stated at the time that if it were to return Shikotan Island and the Habomai Islands to Japan in the future, Japan must guarantee that no foreign troops would be stationed on the two islands.
This was clearly directed at the United States.
Not long afterward, the Soviet Union’s position changed. It proposed preconditions for returning the two islands and subsequently declared that the territorial issue between Japan and the Soviet Union had already been resolved.
After the end of the Cold War, Russia’s position on the territorial issue showed a certain degree of relaxation.
In the 1990s, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto held multiple summit meetings. Negotiations between Russia and Japan surrounding the territorial dispute once made some progress, and the positions of both sides showed limited convergence.
Russia inherited the treaty status of the 1956 Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration, while at the same time, through the 1993 Tokyo Declaration, it formally acknowledged that there existed a territorial dispute between Russia and Japan.
In 2001, the two sides issued the Irkutsk Joint Statement, confirming that the above-mentioned Joint Declaration was the starting point for both sides to sign a peace treaty. Afterwards, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Putin himself both clearly stated that Moscow was willing to fulfill the above-mentioned Joint Declaration.
At that time, there was an opinion within Japan that it could consider first recovering Shikotan Island and the Habomai Islands, and then continue negotiations over the ownership of the other two islands. This was a more realistic choice; otherwise, Japan might not even be able to recover these two islands.
However, more opinions believed that once Japan accepted only two islands, the other two islands would never be recovered.
Afterward, during the approximately eight years when Shinzo Abe served as prime minister on two separate occasions, including attending the opening ceremony of the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics, he held 27 meetings with Putin through mutual visits and various international conferences. He also attended the “Eastern Economic Forum” held in Vladivostok for four consecutive years.
This was clearly an attempt to get closer to Putin in order to strengthen his personal relationship with Putin. He even specially presented Putin with an Akita dog.
Putin had previously clearly stated that the relationship between the two sides at that time was constructive. He emphasized that the current deterioration of bilateral relations was not initiated by Russia, which was clearly intended to explain that Russia was not the active party responsible for the decline of bilateral relations.
However, after Shinzo Abe stepped down in 2020, the channel for high-level exchanges between Russia and Japan was completely closed.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Japan followed the United States and Europe in imposing multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia. High-level exchanges between Japan and Russia were abruptly interrupted, bilateral phone calls completely stopped, and even when the foreign ministers of the two countries encountered each other at international multilateral meetings, they behaved like strangers, without any substantive communication.
Previously, at the ASEAN Regional Forum foreign ministers’ meeting held in Manila on July 23 this year, the Japanese side’s news release stated that Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Foreign Minister Lavrov had a brief exchange.
Based on this, when Lavrov later responded in an interview with Russian television, he said:
“In reality, it was only that at the dinner that evening, after Lavrov sat down, he felt someone patting him on the shoulder from behind. When he turned around, he saw Toshimitsu Motegi. So he simply sat there and shook hands with him, and then Motegi returned to his own seat. Is this what the Japanese side calls ‘exchanging views on bilateral relations and regional issues’?”
Since 1964, former indigenous residents of the Southern Kuril Islands and their descendants have been permitted by the Soviet Union to visit the islands to hold memorial ceremonies for deceased relatives. As of 2020, a total of 4,851 people had completed visits to the islands for grave-sweeping activities.
After Japan continuously increased sanctions against Russia, the Russian side terminated this arrangement and no longer approved Japanese citizens’ visits to the islands for memorial ceremonies.
At the beginning of this year, Russia conducted a large-scale military exercise lasting two months in the waters around the Southern Kuril Islands. The Japanese side regarded this as a demonstration of force by Russia and expressed strong protests against it.
At the end of July this year, the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society announced that two unnamed islands within the Southern Kuril Islands would respectively be named after the surnames of the legendary intelligence agent Richard Sorge and artillery hero Rublyenko.
Russia has already established commemorative markers on the two islands engraved with the names of these two individuals, and it also plans to mark these two new place names on world maps.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara subsequently stated at a press conference that Japan would conduct an assessment of Russia’s decision. The Japanese government is conveying its position regarding the Northern Territories issue to Russia through multiple channels. After verifying the complete factual information, Japan will take corresponding measures based on its consistent position.
Previously, shortly before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Foreign Minister Lavrov proposed to Japan that the ashes of Sorge be relocated back to Russian territory. This proposal was explicitly rejected by Japan.
In July this year, Japan also began joint research and production cooperation with Ukraine on military drones. Russia regarded this action as an extremely hostile move and warned Japan not to “play with fire and burn itself.”
Regarding Putin’s visit to the islands this time, Russian experts generally interpreted it as Putin closing the door on engagement with Japan and no longer having any expectations toward the Japanese side.
Since Japan has chosen to closely follow the steps of the United States and Europe, Russia also has no need to continue considering Japan’s feelings, they believe.
They argue that in the future Putin will frequently inspect the Southern Kuril Islands.
Obviously, in the foreseeable future, there is absolutely no possibility of any progress being made on this territorial issue.
Editor: Zhiyu Wang
