Technology&Science - China Academy https://thechinaacademy.org an intellectual content network dedicated to illustrating how key dynamics shape China's view on the world Tue, 18 Mar 2025 02:26:09 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.2 https://thechinaacademy.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/cropped-WechatIMG843-32x32.png Technology&Science - China Academy https://thechinaacademy.org 32 32 213115683 The Four Dividends that China Brings to the World https://thechinaacademy.org/the-four-dividends-that-china-brings-to-the-world/ https://thechinaacademy.org/the-four-dividends-that-china-brings-to-the-world/#respond Tue, 11 Mar 2025 18:00:00 +0000 https://thechinaacademy.org/chinas-enjoying-a-dividend-three-generations-ahead-of-the-wests-cognition/ Some still explain China’s economic take-off by referring to the demographic dividends and sweatshops; however, this view is 40 years behind the reality in today’s China.

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Recently, in discussions with professors and students at Harvard Business School and Harvard Kennedy School, I found that many still perceive the “China dividend “through the lens of some decades-old assumptions. Such an outdated perspective inevitably fails to accurately grasp the full picture and nuanced details of China today.

So, what does the “China dividend” truly mean today? This is a question worth dissecting, and at least four key dimensions define it.

1 Factory Worker Dividend

At the dawn of China’s reform and opening-up, the country leveraged a vast “factory worker dividend”. Within a short period, it developed the world’s largest processing and manufacturing sector, drawing upon a seemingly inexhaustible supply of laborers from the agricultural sector. It was through this export-driven model, that China singlehandedly kept global labor costs low for decades.

The textile industry is a representative industry in the early days of China’s reform and opening up.

Unfortunately, many in the West still subscribe to this outdated notion, believing that China is merely exploiting its “human resources” for labor-intensive industries and that if Western capital and technology were to withdraw, China’s manufacturing sector would collapse.

2 Technician Dividend

But as China’s industrial sector has evolved, the country has demonstrated its “technician dividend”, forming the world’s largest general manufacturing industry. From electromechanical products to heavy chemical goods, countless industrial clusters have created an extensive supply chain network with unparalleled collaboration and responsiveness to market demands. This ability to swiftly adjust production, control costs, and maintain high efficiency forms China’s most visible economic moat.

Apple CEO Tim Cook visiting a Foxconn assembly plant in China

Even as factor costs such as labor wage and land rent rise, China retains its competitive edge in producing computers, smartphones, automobiles and other high-value goods. This is why those who recognize this industrial advantage tend to fall into two camps: the enthusiastic “China admirers” who are astonished by the depth and resilience of Chinese industry, and the alarmed “China skeptics” who fear that without a “China+1” strategy, Western industries will struggle to remain competitive. The “China+1” strategy refers to a supply chain diversification scenario where companies move parts of their manufacturing operations out of China into additional countries.

3 Engineering Dividend

Today, China is emerging as the world’s leader in “engineer dividends”, developing the largest cluster of advanced manufacturing and industrial service sector. The country is rapidly filling all key industrial spaces aligned with the definition of new quality productive forces: renewable energy, electric vehicles, drones, power batteries, robotics — where China’s dominance is nearly uncontested. Even in fields traditionally considered “softer industries”, such as biotechnology, artificial intelligence, gaming and animation, China is on the brink of major breakthroughs. Additionally, longstanding bottlenecks in industries such as semiconductors and commercial aviation are likely to be overcome in the near future.

Staff members work on a production line at a factory of BYD, China’s leading EV manufacturer.

The fundamental reason for this unexpected transformation is simple: these industries are inherently “engineering-intensive”. Capital alone is not sufficient, labor alone neither. But, even having both capital and labor is not enough. What is essential is a vast industrial base with an equally vast consumer market, where a prototype product may experience painstaking and continuous trial, error and iteration through numerous real-world applications, to achieve desirable industrial progress and technological evolution. Right now, only China possesses these at scale.

Western economies have capital and can attract global talent, but they lack the expansive industrial and commercial scenarios that China provides. This structural disadvantage means that over time, it will become increasingly difficult for Western economies to match China’s momentum. Those who recognize this reality in the West have largely embraced a pragmatic stance: in the foreseeable future, cooperation will be the only viable approach to engage with China’s technological and industrial rise.

4 Scientist Dividend

In the near future, China is set to harness an unprecedented “scientist dividend”, fostering entirely new industries, first through incremental innovations, then the breakthroughs. The latest Nature Index rankings maybe already provide a glimpse into China’s momentum: among the world’s top 10 scientific institutions, in terms of research articles published in high-quality science journals across all sectors and covering all subjects, eight are now based in China. This reflects a convergence of China’s vast scientific workforce and its unparalleled commitment to research funding. With tens of millions of researchers backed by trillions of dollars in R&D investment, China is generating a massive output of scientific discoveries — aligning perfectly with the principles of investment and return.

As China’s capabilities in fundamental research accelerate, future breakthroughs in mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology and information sciences are increasingly likely to originate from China. These will go beyond engineering optimizations and enter the realm of true “zero-to-one” scientific innovations — many of which we may not yet even be able to fully conceptualize.

What makes China’s development truly remarkable is that these four dividends — the factory worker, technician, engineer, and scientist dividends — are not competing or mutually exclusive forces. Instead, they are complementary and mutually reinforcing. Scientific breakthroughs fuel engineering applications, which in turn drive industrial scalability, ultimately leading to widespread commercial adoption. This creates a seamless ecosystem that connects cutting-edge science with everyday life scenario.

With a population exceeding a billion, a socialist outlook, and the rapid advancement of industrialization and modernization, China is poised to unleash unprecedented levels of productivity — representing the pinnacle of modern civilization’s technological and economic development.

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Will India Break into the Space Power Club of the US, China, and Russia? https://thechinaacademy.org/will-india-break-into-the-space-power-club-of-the-us-china-and-russia/ https://thechinaacademy.org/will-india-break-into-the-space-power-club-of-the-us-china-and-russia/#respond Thu, 09 Jan 2025 18:00:00 +0000 https://thechinaacademy.org/will-india-break-into-the-space-power-club-of-the-us-china-and-russia/ India's first space docking mission has been delayed again. How much further is India from realizing its dream of becoming a space power?

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India's first space docking mission has been delayed again. How much further is India from realizing its dream of becoming a space power?

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Why Is China Winning The Future of Clean Energy? https://thechinaacademy.org/why-is-china-winning-the-future-of-clean-energy/ Thu, 10 Oct 2024 18:00:00 +0000 https://thechinaacademy.org/why-is-china-winning-the-future-of-clean-energy/ It’s called the Chinese way of bringing everybody in through abundance, instead of keeping people out through scarcity.

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It’s called the Chinese way of bringing everybody in through abundance, instead of keeping people out through scarcity.

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The Future Dominator of Chinese Sky: eVTOL https://thechinaacademy.org/the-future-dominator-of-chinese-sky-evtol/ Sun, 28 Apr 2024 18:00:00 +0000 https://thechinaacademy.org/the-future-dominator-of-chinese-sky-evtol/ Thanks to the rapid progress of the domestic EV industry in the past two years, Chinese eVTOL is also developing in fast pace.

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1. What is eVTOL?

With new energy vehicles in full swing, many people naturally ask: when will we see new energy airplanes? Especially the electric airplane?

In fact, research on new energy aircraft has long been underway, but face the following problems: the battery’s energy density is too low, the range is short, the dead weight brought by the battery is too large, and unlike fossil-fueled aircraft, they can consume the weight of the fuel in flight in order to reduce the landing weight.

Also for this reason, although the major aircraft manufacturers have exploratory research on electric fixed-wing aircraft, there are no actual products on the ground due to the above reasons, and the main R&D direction for new energy fixed-wing aircraft is placed on hybrid electric aircraft.

However, for eVTOL aircraft based on multi-rotor technology, the battery, weight and range problems plaguing fixed-wing aircraft are acceptable, because eVTOL aircraft do not need to perform thousands of kilometers of flights like fixed-wing aircraft, but rather short-range flights, and the use of the scene is mostly for urban low-altitude flights, which can be sufficient to take advantage of the strengths and avoid the shortcomings. The EH216S, which has just obtained three certificates, is such an eVTOL based on urban low-altitude flight.

If you look at the parameters of EH216S, you will find that it is not very big: the height of the fuselage is 1.93 meters, the width is 5.73 meters, the maximum take-off weight is 620KG, the maximum load is 220KG, and the maximum range is 30KM. 16 motors and 16 pairs of paddles are used for powering the EH216S, which belongs to the multi-axis aerial vehicle.

The EH216S’s vertical approach capability requires a small take-off and landing site, which makes it possible to utilize rooftop aprons, parks, etc. as a take-off and landing site in urban environments where land is scarce and the area taken up by constructing a dedicated take-off and landing site is not too large. For this reason, after the EH216S received the airworthiness license from the CAAC, the Air Traffic Operation Demonstration Center (ATODC) was launched in Bao’an District of Shenzhen to explore the operation mode of eVTOL in the low-altitude economy.

Although eVTOL aircraft are called “air cabs”, they are fundamentally different from cabs on the ground. The most fundamental point is that the cab’s boarding and alighting place can be regarded as basically free, and you can get off anywhere as you like. However, eVTOL air cabs cannot take off and land in unprotected places, and can only take off and land in dedicated take-off and landing sites, which poses a great limitation. eVTOL’s most ideal use scenario is to reach the destination directly from the air in the case of ground traffic jams, but its need for a dedicated take-off and landing site predetermines that there will not be a lot of places for boarding and disembarking passengers.

At present, many high-rise buildings have helicopter pads for helicopter landing and takeoff, which is technically possible for eVTOL to take off and land. However, the convenience of using the rooftop of a high-rise building as a drop-off and pick-up point is obviously not enough unless the destination happens to be that high-rise building.

Parks and other open spaces are naturally suitable for eVTOL takeoffs and landings, but setting up dedicated takeoff and landing sites will obviously take up parks’ space, and often not the final destination still needs to be reached via the ground. Therefore, at this stage, the most suitable for eVTOL application is still in the dedicated landing site as an urban air tour program.

2. eVTOL competition between the United States and China

The concept of eVTOL aircraft has been popular in the West for over a decade and is a hot topic in the aviation industry. While China is issuing its first eVTOL aircraft airworthiness certificate, Joby Aviation’s S4 eVTOL aircraft is also in the process of applying for an FAA airworthiness permit, entering the third of five phases, and the FAA has just determined Joby Aviation’s final eVTOL airworthiness standards in March 2024, which is still some distance away from obtaining an airworthiness permit.

It should be noted that the Joby Aviation S4 eVTOL vehicle is currently in the airworthiness validation process in the U.S. uses a configuration that is very different from the EH216-S, which is a tilt-rotor eVTOL that is closer to a traditional fixed-wing vehicle. Since part of its lift is generated through the wings, it makes its energy utilization more efficient. And with a crew of 4+1 (including a pilot), a range of 160km, a maximum takeoff weight of 2.4 tons, and a maximum speed that can reach 322km/h.

Larger range and larger number of crew, making Joby Aviation’s eVTOL has a larger application scenario, can meet from the airport takeoff directly to the downtown CBD area roof apron of this high-end business application scenarios, effectively replacing the helicopter’s function.

Although it seems that Joby’s S4 evtol has superior performance, the fundamental difference between the two is that Joby Aviation’s S4 eVTOL is manned, while the EH216-S is unmanned. This means that the latter can utilize the limited payload more efficiently and save on handling systems, while the unmanned application also represents a lower cost of use.

In other words, what we put into use that the U.S. does not currently have, what the U.S. has we also have and have more potential. And for eVTOL this new thing, explore its use and operation mode is the most important, and this is dependent on who started earlier, policy support is stronger, earlier to find the right business model.

3. eVTOL’s application prospect and industrial development

For eVTOL, its biggest advantage is that it can cross the limitations of geography and traffic conditions to achieve the purpose of rapid transportation. However, as mentioned above, if it is used for urban transportation, it is not so convenient to reach the final destination. Moreover, as an eVTOL flying over the city, it has to take into account the risk of crashes, which will inevitably occur in densely populated cities, and the paddles will also bring large casualties on the ground. Therefore, from the current stage, eVTOL urban transportation scenarios are more suitable or in the formation of cities or metropolitan areas around wide waters, and there is no bridge connecting the two sides of the scene for application.

In addition, city sightseeing tour is also a feasible scenario, firstly, the take-off and landing sites are all in the same without considering the factor of arriving at the final destination, and secondly, the flight routes of air sightseeing tour are relatively fixed, and the routes on the water surface can be selected to avoid the risk on the ground.

However, urban air transportation, air excursions in the foreseeable future is still a more limited demand, the need for demand is actually not high. The cross-bay, cross-river transportation is a practical application scenario and has a unique and convenient advantage over other transportation modes, but due to low passenger capacity of the current eVTOL vehicle, it can only be used as a supplement to cars.

However, eVTOL’s advantages of crossing geographic barriers and having smaller take-off and landing sites have broad prospects in other geographic environments. For example, in the mountainous terrain of southwest China, if you want to go from the foot of the mountain to the top of the mountain, you need to go through the mountain highway, which takes a few hours not to mention the risk is also high. But for eVTOL aircraft, they would only need ten minutes to reach the destination.

In addition, islands are also a very suitable for eVTOL. For archipelagos, transportation between islands can only be carried out by boats and speedboats. However, for islands, eVTOL is a faster and more convenient means of transportation between islands. eVTOL’s low passenger capacity is not a problem in the face of low traffic flow between islands. Moreover, since the eVTOL uses electricity as its energy source, the photovoltaic and energy storage facilities installed on the islands will make the eVTO self-sufficient to a certain extent in terms of the power it needs.

At present, the biggest limitation to the eVTOL vehicle is still the battery. The key technology of eVTOL is highly similar to that of electric vehicles, so much so that some electric vehicle manufacturers have entered into the manufacture of eVTOL flying machines.

And thanks to the rapid progress of the domestic EV industry in the past two years, lithium battery technology is also rapidly changing, and it looks like in 2025 it will be able to start applying a large number of semi-solid/full-solid state batteries. For EVs, the high cost of semi-solid/all-solid-state batteries is difficult to bear. But for eVTOL vehicles, which are often priced in the millions, the added cost of semi/full solid state batteries is perfectly acceptable, as the benefits (payload, range) far outweigh the extra cost.

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Two Men Conquered China’s Wild with Cotton https://thechinaacademy.org/how-two-men-conquered-chinas-wild-with-cotton/ Thu, 25 Apr 2024 18:00:00 +0000 https://thechinaacademy.org/?p=100020039 We learned that in the US, one person can manage 997 mu of land on average. We wanted to challenge it, and in the end, two of us have shown capable of managing 3,000 acres.

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“We learned that in the United States, where the cost of cotton cultivation is low, one person can manage 997 mu1 of land on average. When we started our project we wanted to challenge it, and from the results, two of us have shown capable of managing 3,000 acres.”
– Ai Haipeng, Manager of the Super Cotton Field Project


Guancha: Can you walk us through the management process involved in unmanned agriculture, based on the order of “cultivation, sowing, management and harvesting”?

Ai Haipeng: First, cultivation includes plowing, leveling, harrowing and other land preparation work.
Every spring, cotton farmers need to choose a period of suitable temperature to sow. In our “super cotton Field”, our two managers can use soil monitors to know the scientifically accurate date for sowing. At the same time, we use remote sensing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and self-propelled farm machinery to improve land preparation and execute accurate, high-efficiency automated operations, which reduce manpower.

Second, sowing.
We mainly monitor environmental information through agricultural IoT equipment to confirm the timing of sowing; after automated sowing, we use remote sensing drones to check the seedling rate and take high-resolution digital maps, analyze the basic seedlings of cotton through AI, and take replanting measures in the areas with seedling shortages.

Third, management. This step is mainly about the work of crops from sowing to harvesting, for instance irrigation, fertilization, pest and weed control, chemical control and regulation.
We have a set of intelligent agricultural solutions to execute the unmanned management of “super cotton field”, which involves a water and fertilizer irrigation system, agricultural IoT equipment, remote sensing drones and agricultural drones. The drone are used to perform fully automatic plant protection operations such as dosing and spreading of fertilizer, and we use AI mapping technology to achieve pesticide reduction as well as disease and grass control. We also use it to guard the cotton’s growth. During this period, we do not need to go to the fields, but could understand the condition of the cotton through smartphones and computers.

The last part, harvesting.
The use of remote sensing drones and agricultural drones can improve the efficiency and quality of cotton harvesting. For example, when harvest season arrives, our agricultural drones will carry out precise and high-efficiency defoliant spraying operations to promote the defoliation and maturation of the cotton, so as to facilitate centralized harvesting by large-scale machinery, thus reducing the impurity content of the cotton lint.

Guancha: Is there any step that can’t be done by technology at the moment?


Ai Haipeng:
At present, there are about 20% of the work that the robot can not perform, such as connecting the drip irrigation pipe and maintenance.
But generally, when the super cotton field project reach its third year, the automation level of robots and the intelligence of the farm management system have been greatly improved. For example, the irrigation robot can automatically adjust the water pressure according to the pressure at the outlet, and the farm management system can also realize one-click irrigation and fertilization.

Guancha: Have you encountered any unexpected situations so far?
Ai Haipeng: Yes, a lot. For example, in April 2021, the “Super Cotton Field” has just begun the sowing process. An unexpected storm attack the field shortly when we finished sowing 600 mu. It lasted 12 hours, completely tearing the plastic film apart. After the storm, we used remote sensing drones to map the farmland and replanted the damaged 200 mu in a timely manner.

Then, by the beginning of May, we completed the sowing of 3,000 mu of land. But then another storm struck the field, leaving a damaged area that reached 1,200 mu. There was nothing we could make up at that point, because it was way passed the best sowing time.
The year 2022 was a relatively good year, in which we developed and debugged the cotton irrigation motorized valve, and successfully completed the irrigation work for the whole period.
Then in 2023, a rare snow occurred in May, causing almost half of the seedling frozen to dead. We had no choice but to replant 1500 mu in early May. After replanting, we spent time adjusting the cotton growth to reduce the impact of late planting on crop yield. The good news is that all the cotton was eventually harvested successfully.

Guancha: Sowing cotton in Xinjiang is prone to windstorms, in addition to the above, what other measures have you taken to deal with windstorms?

Ai Haipeng: The traditional method against winds is mainly the windbreaks, but that only works for smaller lands. For a much lager project like our super cotton field, the effect of windbreaks is limited.
What we do is a innovative method called “wheat and cotton sowing”, which results in a man-made “anti-wind fortification”: we would grow wheat one month before sowing cotton, then the wheat, by the time we sow cotton, will be more than 10 centimeters, forming of a dense wind wall, which helps cotton to reduce wind.

Guancha: From the point of view of costs and revenue, to what extent can unmanned planting compress costs and improve returns?

Ai Haipeng: The third season of “Super Cotton Field” has a total cotton output of 1,191 tons, a total input of 6,215,000 yuan, a total income (excluding subsidies) of 8,871,000 yuan, a net profit of 2,656,000 yuan, and a mu income of 938.9 yuan.
In the third season, the average yield reached 420.9 kg/mu, compared with 403.6 kg/mu in the second season, we achieved an increase of 4.3%; the average cost per mu was RMB 2,196.76, compared with the second season, we manage to get a reduction of 7.6%; in addition, compared with the second season, a reduction of 26% in the cost of water and electricity, a reduction of 18% in the cost of fertilizers, and a reduction in the cost of labor by 29%.

Guancha: What do farmers need to learn if they want to “farm” like you?

Ai Haipeng: All you need is to know how to operate a cell phone, our goal is to “make farming as simple as playing a game”, it must be simple. If we want traditional farmers to manage like us, we can not give them a lot of burdens. If the threshold is very high, it will be very difficult to popularize the technology.

Guancha: Have you considered that if the technology develops further, your supervision job in the Super Cotton Field project will also be replaced by AI?
Ai Haipeng:  Our society is facing the problem of aging labor force due to less birth rate. So the future must be the era of human-machine collaboration. AI will only make the production efficiency higher, it serves the people, it can replace the physical laborers of the agricultural affairs, but not managers.

Guancha: Nowadays, many people, especially young people, are not willing to engage in agricultural production, do you have any message for them?

Ai Haipeng: China’s urbanization is still very fast, and there are more and more mega-cities, so young people are willing to stay in the big cities because they have more opportunities and a more convenient life; whereas in the past, agriculture was more laborious, with high inputs and low incomes, and the occupation of farmers was stereotyped in the public’s perception. It’s not the fault of these young people, it’s the industry that needs to change, and that’s why companies like ours are working hard to make agriculture more decent, with higher incomes and an easier life for those who work in it.
I believe that through our efforts, more and more young people will engage in agricultural production in the future, and Chinese agriculture will become better. I ask these young people to pay more attention to the changes in agriculture, where the opportunities are very, very great.

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How China Beats the U.S. in Photovoltaic Industry? https://thechinaacademy.org/how-china-beats-the-u-s-to-become-a-photovoltaic-superpower/ Thu, 02 Nov 2023 18:00:00 +0000 https://thechinaacademy.org/?p=100010317 In catching up with the world’s leading photovoltaic technology, China demonstrated the enduring power of its political, economic and societal systems. But the race is just beginning.

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Editor’s Note:

The introduction of solar energy dates back to the 1950s when a lab in America announced the birth of the world’s first photovoltaic cell. Few people then could have imagined that 70 years later, China would be making and supplying over 80% of the world’s photovoltaic panels. In catching up with the world’s leading photovoltaic technology, China demonstrated the enduring power of its political, economic and societal systems. But the race is just beginning. It is estimated that with support in the right direction, the highly-anticipated perovskite technology, which promises to revolutionize solar cells and completely transform the current solar cell market landscape, can be mature enough to graduate from the lab in just five years.

No economist or government can predict the best formula for facilitating innovation, and time is ticking for all players in this race – China, Europe, Japan and the United States. To further understand the issue, we are pleased to present the following article by 地球知识局 , a widely-read content provider on Chinese social media known for its dedication to science education.


20 Years of Development, China Leads the World in Photovoltaics

From Zero to Number One Globally for Ten Consecutive Years

Photovoltaics — a technology that converts solar energy into electrical energy.

In the 1950s, three Americans—Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller, and Gerald Pearson—at the famed Bell Labs invented the silicon photovoltaic cell, intended to power the emerging satellites and spacecraft of the time.

At that time, The New York Times lauded the technology as the beginning of a new era. But over the long years, the United States abandoned what was called the manufacturing end (not just in photovoltaics) and, with it, lost the early mover advantage.

China’s photovoltaic industry also sprouted in the last century and began to take shape at the turn of this one.

In the late 1960s, to assist with the launch of artificial satellites, China started the research and development of photovoltaic cells.

These successfully developed and produced photovoltaic cells were later applied to China’s second artificial satellite, ‘Practice-1’, which, equipped with photovoltaic cell panels, ultimately operated in orbit for 8 years.

In the 1980s, China’s photovoltaic industry transitioned from ‘sky’ to ‘earth,’ several state-owned photovoltaic cell factories were established in succession. The country’s first 10 kW civilian photovoltaic power station was built in 1983 in Yuzhong, Gansu. Decades later, this power station, which uses monocrystalline modules, still maintains a power output of about 7 kW.

By the turn of the century, the international clean energy industry was burgeoning. In 1997, the ‘Kyoto Protocol’ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted by 183 countries. Following this, European countries, led by Germany, enacted their versions of the ‘Renewable Energy Act,’ providing subsidies for the photovoltaic industry.

The first prominent Chinese photovoltaic companies also emerged during this time and soon caught the fast train of China’s accession to the WTO. Leveraging low-cost, efficient labor, they squeezed into the global photovoltaic industry chain.

In 2004, the global photovoltaic industry entered a phase of comprehensive explosion, and Chinese photovoltaic companies reached their first peak moment. During this period, companies that secured a large number of orders overseas went public in the United States, creating a wave of new wealth among Chinese concept stocks.

However, the Chinese photovoltaic industry in the first decade of the century resembled a dumbbell with a slender waist. The markets and raw materials were external, lacking upstream and downstream support. What remained in the country was a fragile and price-taking manufacturing and processing segment.

In 2009, due to capital speculation, international speculators, and the cyclical curse, the first generation of Chinese photovoltaic star enterprises began to close down one after another. In that year, more than 300 photovoltaic companies went bankrupt, which could be called the darkest hour of the Chinese photovoltaic industry.

In the following time, China’s photovoltaic sector made forward-looking policy deployments, continued to evolve technologically, made collective industrial progress, and balanced both domestic and foreign markets. It gradually achieved leapfrog development from nothing to something, from strength to strength, establishing a complete market and supporting environment.

Currently, the photovoltaic industry has become one of the few strategic emerging industries in China that can participate in international competition and reach a leading international level. It also serves as a fresh calling card for China’s industrial economic development and a crucial engine driving its energy transformation.

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Chinese enterprises now control about 80% of the global photovoltaic manufacturing capacity and produce nearly half of the equipment needed for manufacturing solar panels and their components.

Based on data from the National Energy Administration, in 2022, China’s photovoltaic electricity generation added an installation capacity of 84.71 million kilowatts, an increase of about 60.3% year-on-year; the cumulative installed capacity reached 393 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%. The scale of new installations has been the largest worldwide for ten consecutive years, and the cumulative installed capacity has been the largest worldwide for seven consecutive years.

After over 20 years of ups and downs, Chinese photovoltaics now stand at the pinnacle of the world.


How does the United States support the development of its domestic photovoltaic industry?

Financial incentives, management policies, fiscal subsidies, and domestic trade protection.

As the global energy situation becomes more pressing, transitioning from traditional to renewable, sustainable new energy sources has become the inevitable path for countries to achieve their carbon neutrality goals. Consequently, the photovoltaic industry has become a hotbed of rapid development.

In photovoltaics, the United States had an early lead but failed to maintain its advantage, resulting in a current reliance on imported photovoltaic manufacturing products.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2021, the United States had an available shipment volume of photovoltaic modules amounting to 30.45 GW, of which imported modules were 22.97 GW, accounting for approximately 75%. Domestic production was only 4.23 GW, less than 14%.

Among the import sources, mainland China, Taiwan, Singapore, and Vietnam contributed 49.2% of the modules. The Chinese photovoltaic industry chain, with its significant technological and cost advantages, has taken a dominant position.

In response, the United States has formulated a series of policies and regulations to encourage the development of its photovoltaic industry.

The current support policies for photovoltaics in the United States can broadly be categorized into four types: financial incentives, management policies, fiscal subsidies, and domestic trade protection. These policies are continuously adjusted and refined in response to changes in the international market.

Firstly, regarding financial incentives, to promote the development of renewable energy, the United States has implemented several fiscal incentive policies centered around tax benefits and exemptions. These include the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), as well as sales & property tax exemptions. Tax credits have become an important force in driving the rapid development of the U.S. photovoltaic industry.

The ITC is a federal tax credit policy in the United States that allows homeowners and businesses to deduct a portion of their photovoltaic installation costs from their federal taxes. It has been a core driver of the rapid development of the U.S. photovoltaic industry in the past.

The ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ enacted in August 2022, proposed to extend the ITC policy for another 10 years until 2032.

In addition to the ITC credit policy, there are also sales & property tax incentive policies, mainly proposed by state governments in the U.S. or authorized for implementation by local governments.

Most U.S. states support the complete exemption of property and sales taxes and provide subsidies for eligible photovoltaic systems in different regions and electric companies, effectively reducing the purchase and ownership costs for businesses and individuals.

Secondly, the management policies for the U.S. photovoltaic industry generally refer to state governments stimulating demand growth through laws, regulations, various standards, or binding targets. This includes quota systems, net metering policies, and power purchase agreements, among other main modes.

Among these, the net metering policy is the most widely implemented across U.S. states, where the government encourages residents to use the electricity they generate themselves, with the excess being sold to power companies.

Stimulated by the net metering policy, it not only saves costs for large-scale photovoltaic power system construction but also effectively solves grid connection and consumption issues, enhancing the utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation.

Thirdly, the rapid development of the U.S. photovoltaic industry cannot be separated from the important push of fiscal subsidies. In recent years, U.S. financial subsidy policies for new energy have mainly focused on the new energy vehicle and storage industries.

Lastly, over the past decade, the United States has implemented several trade restriction measures on imported photovoltaic products. Behind the United States’ efforts to protect domestic trade is the ambition to vigorously develop its own manufacturing sector and to move away from ‘Made in China.’

The United States has supported and protected the development of its domestic photovoltaic industry by restricting exports from producing countries and imposing multiple rounds of tariffs. However, due to labor costs, technological barriers, and uneven development of the industry chain, its photovoltaic manufacturing is still not competitive.

Nevertheless, with the urgent need for new energy, U.S. White House officials have recently confirmed that the United States has started to allow photovoltaic components to be imported from China.

The intensity of these industrial support policies clearly shows the United States’ determination to vigorously support the development of its domestic photovoltaic industry.

With the continuous enhancement of domestic policies and the drive for high economic returns, the U.S. photovoltaic market may be on the brink of a major boom.


On the path to energy independence, Europe is pushing for the localization of photovoltaic manufacturing by enacting multiple trade measures.

The main types of electricity generation in Europe include fossil energy, nuclear power, and renewable energy. In 2022, these three types of energy contributed 38.7%, 23.6%, and 37.7% to the EU’s electricity generation, respectively.

Europe has a high dependency on imported fossil fuels. In 2021, 27 European countries had a fossil energy import dependency rate of 55.6%, with oil and gas import dependency rates reaching 92% and 83%, respectively. Renewable energy has always been a vigorously developed and promoted energy substitution strategy in Europe.

The pricing mechanism in most European power markets is currently based on the supply and demand relationship of energy; that is, electricity prices are set by marginal cost pricing. Therefore, real-time electricity prices are often determined by the highest-cost fossil fuel energy prices during that period.

The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 led to a severe imbalance in the supply and demand of energy in Europe, with the tension in natural gas supplies causing electricity prices to soar. As a result, the lower-cost renewable energy sector achieved high profits, which in the short term sparked a surge in enthusiasm for photovoltaic installations.

In the long term, catalyzed by geopolitical events, Europe’s need for energy independence has become more urgent, with multiple factors jointly driving an increase of over 50% in new photovoltaic installations in Europe in 2022.

On the policy front, the European Commission launched the ‘REPowerEU’ plan in March 2022 to accelerate the clean energy transition and enhance Europe’s energy independence.

The proposal plans to raise the overall target for renewable energy by 2030 from 40% to 45%, with cumulative photovoltaic installations expected to reach 320 GW by 2025 and 600 GW by 2030.

The EU’s solar energy strategy also specifically sets out the implementation framework for the ‘rooftop solar plan’:

By 2026, all new public and commercial buildings with a usable area greater than 250 square meters are to be equipped with rooftop solar;
By 2027, all existing public and commercial buildings with a usable area greater than 250 square meters are to install rooftop solar;
And by 2029, all new residential buildings are to have rooftop solar.

On March 16, 2023, local time, the European Commission in Brussels released the ‘Net-Zero Industry Act.’ This legislation aims for the EU’s net-zero technology manufacturing capacity to meet at least 40% of the organization’s needs by 2030.

These plans are designed to enhance the competitiveness of the EU’s domestic clean energy manufacturing industry and reduce reliance on other economies.

On the same day, the EU also issued another critical piece of legislation on raw materials to increase the supply capacity of critical raw materials domestically.

The Critical Raw Materials Act proposes that at least 10% of critical raw materials extraction, 40% of their processing, and 15% of their recycling should come from within the EU annually. It also stipulates that consumption of strategic raw materials from a single third-party country should not exceed 65%.

According to PV InfoLink data, in 2022, Europe imported 86.6 GW of photovoltaic components from China, a 112% increase from the full year of 2021 at 40.9 GW, accounting for 56% of China’s total component exports in 2022, making China’s most significant export market at present.

The robust market demand has made the European market the largest source of overseas business income for many domestic photovoltaic enterprises in recent years.

However, the frequent emergence of trade barriers has also brought great uncertainty to Chinese photovoltaic enterprises in expanding their overseas markets.

Market opinions generally believe that the current legislation is still in the draft stage, and it will have to go through a lengthy voting and review process, as well as obtain the consent of all member states before it can be established. Thus, its short-term impact is considered to be minimal. Moreover, there is significant uncertainty within the EU itself, as there are concerns that the act may violate international trade rules.


Challenges are looming: China’s photovoltaic industry development enters ‘deep waters.’ Be vigilant against new technologies taking shortcuts.

Over the past decade, through the concerted efforts of the entire industry chain, China’s photovoltaic industry has achieved leapfrog development, with the cost of electricity generation dropping by more than 90%. The industry has adopted a dual approach of distributed and centralized generation, driven by market forces and policy incentives.

As analyzed above, the restrictions of trade barriers and the nurturing of local manufacturing through financial support have become the ‘one-two punch’ strategy for foreign countries to vigorously develop their domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industries.

The general market view is that currently, only in China can a photovoltaic component factory be built and put into operation within 90 days. Western countries lack the foundation for developing the photovoltaic manufacturing industry to such an extent.

However, another perspective is that considering their long-term economic and security interests, Western developed countries will still invest heavily to construct component factories, even if they face longer construction periods and high financial costs, to cultivate their photovoltaic manufacturing industry chains.

The current situation, where China holds 80% of global photovoltaic manufacturing capacity, is likely to change.

In addition to the pressure from national policies, as the Chinese photovoltaic industry continues to dominate global market supply, international competition around photovoltaic manufacturing technology is also intensifying.

Forced by the unshakable advantages of Chinese enterprises in mainstream tracks, foreign enterprises are attempting to overtake with new technologies.

For instance:

The U.S. Department of Energy has established the ‘Cadmium Telluride Development Alliance’ to expand domestic production of cadmium telluride photovoltaic materials and components;
Europe has restarted the ‘Solar Photovoltaic Innovation Platform,’ which will promote the renewal of solar photovoltaic technology in Europe;
Japanese domestic companies view perovskite products as strong candidates for the next generation of photovoltaic cells and strive to make a comeback in the photovoltaic product market.

The next-generation technology in the photovoltaic industry is essentially locked in the perovskite field. Perovskite requires higher processing precision than the current prevalent crystalline silicon system and poses greater technical difficulties. However, the long-term cost projected after theoretical calculation is also expected to be lower.

According to market expectations, perovskite technology will mature in about 5 years, and other countries can completely overtake the current technology through perovskite. For Chinese photovoltaic enterprises, it is crucial to actively plan for the next 5 to 10 years of development.

Currently, leading domestic crystalline silicon component manufacturers, including LONGi Green Energy Technology, Trina Solar, JA Solar Technology, and JinkoSolar, are all actively researching and developing perovskite cells.

In photovoltaic manufacturing, the core for a company to become a leader lies in the correct direction and lower costs. Once a company falls behind or bets in the wrong direction, it is likely to ‘fall from the top of the pyramid.’

Chinese photovoltaic enterprises are accustomed to overseas restrictions. Ultimately, to cope with these risks, they must insist on technological innovation and avoid reliance on a single market.

It is worth noting that as external competition intensifies, a new round of expansion fever launched by the domestic photovoltaic industry has also escalated competition throughout the entire industry chain.

According to incomplete statistics, from the beginning of 2021 to November 2022, China planned more than 480 photovoltaic expansion projects, some of which are to be constructed in phases. Market changes will determine the start of these projects.

The intense competition in the domestic market poses challenges, mainly due to the risk of redundant low-level construction within the industry and the possibility of excess capacity in certain links.

The post How China Beats the U.S. in Photovoltaic Industry? first appeared on China Academy.

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How Did China Become America’s Top Rival in 70 Years? https://thechinaacademy.org/how-did-china-become-americas-top-rival-in-70-years/ Sat, 30 Sep 2023 18:00:00 +0000 https://thechinaacademy.org/?p=100009964 Adapting and Innovating: China's Quest for Indigenous Science and Industrialization

The post How Did China Become America’s Top Rival in 70 Years? first appeared on China Academy.

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Editor’s Note:

“Since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, China has overcome daunting challenges to achieve remarkable indigenous innovation and industrialization.
The initial model of development followed the Soviet approach – central planning, emphasis on heavy industry, and vocational education tied to sectoral needs. This yielded successes like nuclear weapons and satellite launches but faltered in raising living standards. With the reform and opening up, China tapped into market mechanisms while retaining a strategic, experimental approach.
Key to progress was enabling private enterprise and venture capital, which facilitated the rise of tech champions like Huawei and DJI. Public investment continued in foundational areas like Beidou. The hybrid model powered exponential growth in high-tech patents and publications.
Yet challenges remain. China has not yet produced transformative scientific breakthroughs on par with Einstein. Its education system struggles to cultivate young talent equipped for the 4th industrial revolution. Still, China forges ahead with characteristic resolve and coordination of state, enterprise, and academia.”


May 22, 2021, was a somber and cloudy day in Changsha when a poignant scene unfolded as thousands of people from all walks of life, with yellow chrysanthemums in hand, gathered to pay their final tribute to Yuan Longping, the crop scientist revered as the “father of hybrid rice” who developed the world’s first high-yield hybrid rice strain and saved millions from hunger.

As the line slowly moved forward, inch by inch, a sense of solemnity permeated the atmosphere. It was a moment of reflection, where the weight of loss mingled with profound gratitude for the scientist’s transformative impact. Millions of Chinese netizens joined these mourners on the internet to bid farewell to this old man, whose legacy serves as a testament to the resilience and defiance of Chinese people against the herculean challenges facing them. Few would remember, once upon a time, the world was wondering how China could ever be able to feed its enormous population, and protect them from hunger and want, with its meager arable lands.

Today, China has a grain-self-sufficient ratio of 100%. Behind the phenomenal success of hybrid rice is the remarkable story of industrialization and modernization propelled by scientific discoveries.

National security trumps all

When Mao proudly declared the founding of this People’s Republic, China was a war-torn nation and an agrarian society with almost non-existent infrastructure for industrialization. To address the daunting challenges in both security and development, China was seeking a quick fix and enlisted the Soviet Union for help. A few decades earlier, the Soviet Union had achieved rapid industrialization in one generation and transformed the country from a predominantly agrarian society into a leading industrial and military power. The Soviet mode of industrialization was featured by central planning, special emphasis (or over-emphasis, as demonstrated later) on heavy industry, and a higher education system to cater to its developmental needs.

Soviet higher education replaced the notion of university education with the concept of vocational–technical training, which focused on the pragmatism of practical skills and knowledge for each field of industry or social services. It’s deeply embedded in the national economy and combines two institutional types: comprehensive universities and specialized institutes/academies, e.g. colleges, especially for engineers, miners, teachers, and doctors. These colleges were subordinated to sectoral ministries and had a top-down administration.

Emulating the system, with aid from the Soviet Union, China quickly saw its fledging industrial capability and burgeoning science community working wonders. The testing of nuclear bombs and the launching of the nation’s first satellite in the 1960s and 70s marked milestones in this period of development and profoundly reshaped the security and geopolitical landscape of East Asia.

On April 24, 1970, China launched her first artificial Earth satellite, Dongfanghong-1;

On October 16, 1964, China’s first atomic bomb was successfully detonated.

In the same period, China has been making significant efforts to catch up with the rest of the world in technology. Alongside the high-yield hybrid rice developed by Yuan Longping, this period has witnessed several notable achievements: the launch of the first domestically-produced nuclear-powered submarine, the development of the first computer capable of storing several gigabytes of Chinese characters, and the introduction of the first quartz optical fiber, ushering in a new era in digital communication. Despite these remarkable advancements, China’s progress in science and industrialization encountered similar conundrums faced by the Soviet Union.

As a market economy didn’t exist, most of the discoveries were made in public institutions, directed and monitored by government agencies. And like the Soviets, the R&D of military technologies took priority over civilian applications. This strategy improved the national security condition but failed to raise the living standard of the average Chinese. When China finally emerged from decades of political turmoil at the end of the 1970s, it was astonished by the fact that the technology gap between itself and the leading economies in the world had widened to a shocking extent.

At this point, it has become clear that to unleash the full potential of 1 billion Chinese people at that time, China needs to rejoin the world and build a market economy.

The roaring 2000s

The value of private firms and venture capitalists in promoting technology innovation was widely appreciated by the authorities and society alike.

China’s venture capital industry has experienced remarkable development since its inception in 1985 when the government established the first venture capital corporation to support the emerging high-tech sector. The industry boomed in the 2000s, especially after the 2008 financial crisis when the government implemented favorable policies and injected a large amount of capital into the market.

By 2018, China became the second largest venture capital market in the world, with a high number of unicorns and a huge deal value, only behind the United States. Some analysts estimated that China will have overtaken the US as the world’s number one by 2020. The main drivers of China’s venture capital industry were the strong government support, the flourishing private sector, and the immense market demand.

The coming of age of homegrown venture capitals is not the sole legacy of the roaring 2000s. This decade has also witnessed the ascent of Chinese internet giants that rival their American counterparts in both market value and innovative prowess. Presently, apps such as TikTok, CapCut, and Temu, all crafted by Chinese firms, rank among the most popular globally.

If Chinese players are merely on par with their American counterparts in the internet industry, their real strength lies in combining technology innovations with their manufacturing prowess. They have significantly outperformed any competitors in the telecommunications and drone sectors. The dominance of HUAWEI in 5G technology is widely recognized, as evidenced by the all-out efforts of the US government to impede its further development. In the drone industry, DJI commands a staggering 70% of the global market share, solidifying its position as the largest drone manufacturer. In a distant second place, Intel captures a mere 4.1% share, closely followed by another Chinese firm, Yuneec, in third place with 3.6%.

At the same time, the academic output in STEM subjects measured by publications in the top journals by authors from Chinese institutions more than tripled in this decade. This trend continues and even accelerates in the second decade of the 21st century. In 2022, Chinese researchers published three times as many papers on artificial intelligence as the United States.

The quality of these scientific outputs also improves dramatically. China accounted for 27.2% of the most cited papers published in 2018, 2019, and 2020, and the United States for 24.9%.

Best of two worlds

In the popular narrative surrounding the Chinese economy, this was the watershed moment when China was reborn as a business-friendly market economy. However, reality is more nuanced. Especially in the realm of science and industrialization, China never places blind faith in the so-called invisible hand of the free market. The government instead adopts a rather hands-on approach when navigating the breathtaking developments of the technology revolution, driven by the mindset of an experimental scientist to find the right mix of solutions.

(121114) — ZHUHAI, Nov. 14, 2012 (Xinhua) — A model of the Beidou Satellite Navigation System is displayed during the 9th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai, south China’s Guangdong Province, Nov. 14, 2012. China began to construct the Beidou system in 2000 with a goal of breaking its dependence on the U.S. Global Positioning System by 2020. Authorities plan to launch a total of 30 satellites to complete the system, with the 16th satellite being launched last month.<br />
(Xinhua/Liang Xu)(wjq)

On one hand, public universities and institutions, as well as state-run enterprises, continue to play a central role in scientific research, particularly in major scientific projects with wide-ranging impacts, such as the Beidou system.

On the other hand, the government takes a step back when necessary, such as in the case of the internet & digital economy, leaving ample room for Chinese entrepreneurs to pursue their ventures and innovations through cycles of trial and error. The aim is to have the best of two worlds, as both industrial policy and market mechanisms are regarded as tools to attain strategic goals.

The results have exceeded the original expectations. In 2009, when the Ministry of Science & Technology announced its ambitious plan to nurture a car industry that could one day rival and surpass the West by focusing on electric vehicles (EVs), it was widely ridiculed and dismissed as impractical, bordering on daydreaming. Fourteen years later, China has emerged as the world’s largest exporter of cars and dominates the EV and lithium battery market. It is a prime example of a meticulous industrial plan with strategic foresight, combined with the vibrancy and entrepreneurial spirit of private enterprises.

The space industry is another well-known example of the concerted effort between government agencies, SOEs, and the private sector, forming a highly intricate ecosystem. The Beidou Navigation Satellite System alone claims an overall output value of 500.7 billion yuan in 2022, marking a significant 6.76% year-on-year growth. Core sectors directly involving satellite navigation technology and applications, such as chips, devices, algorithms, software, navigation data, terminal equipment, and infrastructure, saw an increased output of 5.05% totaling 152.7 billion yuan. This segment represented 30.50% of the total value.

The road ahead less traveled

Despite all these dazzling developments, according to many members of the Chinese science community, the country still falls short in one major arena. Despite making significant progress in science research, Chinese scholars have so far failed to produce any new knowledge that would fundamentally revolutionize the way we see our world. In other words, China has failed to produce its own Einstein.

Conversely, the Chinese education system has also struggled to produce enough young talents with practical skills and knowledge that would help them survive and thrive against the backdrop of the 4th Industrial Revolution. With all the talks of youth unemployment and labor shortage for emerging high-tech industries, the evident mismatch between education and the demands of the industry becomes strikingly apparent.

To expand the frontiers of human knowledge driven by the curiosity of scientists on the one hand, and to fuel economic growth by supplying young blood equipped with more down-to-earth, highly practical skills on the other hand, may initially seem contradictory pursuits. The question then arises: How can an education system reconcile these two objectives and deliver successful outcomes?

To address these challenges, the trio of governments, SOEs, and the private sector are on the move again. Depending on the scenarios, each of the 3 could take the lead.

To keep up with competition and the pace of innovation in today’s technology world, companies have rediscovered the merits of fundamental research, the research that asks and tries to answer the big questions, to unveil the ultimate secrets of the universe. Ren Zhengfei of HUAWEI has more than once stressed the significance of this type of scientific pursuit, as he supports and finances those studies seemingly without the potential of any practical application in the near future. He regards the discoveries made in labs as precursors of disruptive innovation in business and thus invests heavily in university labs around the world. As a result, his company pioneers a plethora of cutting-edge technologies. Without a doubt, the government also throws its full weight behind this conglomerate in these efforts.

In other areas, government agencies take on a leading role. High-level application-oriented universities, established across the country, collaborate closely with industries. China also undertakes major international scientific projects such as the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope (FAST) and the Tiangong space station, making them open to researchers worldwide.

It is easy to observe the similarities between this new generation of application-oriented universities and Germany’s Hochschule. China aspires to develop an advanced manufacturing industry that bears some resemblance to Germany’s but with the added advantage of its own strengths in IoT, 5G/6G, AI, and other areas, as well as the enormous scale of production and the vast domestic market.

What truly distinguishes China is its ability to mobilize vast resources and coordinate efforts toward long-term strategic goals. Additionally, it aims for the benefits of technological development to be shared more equitably among countries through various global initiatives encompassing trade, finance, infrastructure, and technology transfer.

If China were to succeed in these endeavors, a new world would emerge.

The post How Did China Become America’s Top Rival in 70 Years? first appeared on China Academy.

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