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Is China Likely to Accept a New Plaza Accord? Zero Probability

January 26, 2025
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It is unlikely that both US objectives — shrinking trade deficit and maintaining the exorbitant privilege of dollar — will be satisfied at once in 2025, or in the next four years: Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis.

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    1. The US dollar is a reserve currency because it has persistently, but not consistently, been the best hedge against exchange rate risk for decades. China’s 1.4 billion people makes it a major player in the world economy, but its counter-productive and poorly educated Communist Party has mismanaged resources. Moreover, the obsession with smoking cigarettes shared by most of the adult population ensures that within 3 decades China will become a huge deficit country, struggling with its shocking health care problems. The result of all of the above, within 50 years China will split into several provinces, which will eventually be recognized as separate countries.

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