India-Pakistan Air Clash as A Simulation of China US Military Rivalry

We are witnessing a historic turning point unfolding in the skies over Kashmir—one that could reshape global perceptions of great-power military capabilities.

On May 7, the Pakistani military announced that it had shot down six Indian warplanes during a pre-dawn clash. The Indian government had not issued an official response. However, Indian media, citing government sources, reported that at least three Indian Air Force jets had crashed in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Local residents filmed wreckage believed to be from Indian Rafale fighter jets, leading many observers to consider Pakistan’s claim of downing six Indian jets as largely credible.

If confirmed, this would be a major battlefield success for Pakistan’s air defense system, reportedly made in China. It would also mean that Chinese-made systems outperformed jets supplied by other major powers. This could give the world a clearer sense of China’s military strength.

The Pakistani military claimed that the six Indian aircraft it shot down included three French-made Rafale jets, one Su-30, one MiG-29, and one Heron drone. The Rafales, first delivered by France to India in 2020, are among France’s most prominent defense exports. Both the Su-30 and MiG-29 are advanced Russian-made fighter jets widely used in export markets.

If Pakistan’s account is largely accurate, it suggests that India’s Russian and French aircraft were no match for Chinese air defense systems. This would mark one of the most convincing real-world performances of Chinese weapons on the global stage—and a breakthrough moment for China’s military industry.

On May 7, India launched a missile strike against Pakistan, targeting areas not only in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir but also reaching deeper than any previous cross-border action since 1971. India stated that it had no intention of escalating the conflict further, making a full-scale war between the two nuclear-armed nations unlikely.

The strike was initially aimed at responding to a deadly terrorist attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir and was meant to appease a surge in nationalist sentiment within India. However, according to currently available reports, the operation failed to achieve India’s intended objectives and instead dealt a blow to its military credibility.

India’s lack of immediate response to Pakistan’s claims likely reflects strategic uncertainty—India is now caught between a rock and a hard place: letting the incident go now would cause more humiliation than refraining from striking in the first place, but launching another airstrike risks losing even more aircraft to Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied JF-17s and HQ-9 missiles, compounding the embarrassment.

The JF-17 fighter jet, which played a key role in Pakistan’s show of strength in this clash, currently numbers around 150 in the Pakistan Air Force fleet. Among them, the most advanced is the JF-17 Block 3, with approximately 24 units delivered. This model is equipped with modern avionics, an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, and PL-15 missiles capable of beyond-visual-range engagement.

In addition, Pakistan recently commissioned the Chinese-made HQ-9P long-range air defense missile system. With a maximum range of 260 kilometers, a single HQ-9P battalion consists of eight quad-launch vehicles and can cover a defensive radius of roughly 125 kilometers.

Some analysts suggest that the HQ-9P, when integrated with the LY-80 medium-range air defense system, the ZDK-03 airborne early warning aircraft, and the JF-17 fighters—all sourced from China—forms a multi-layered “long-medium-short” air defense network. This structure may have given Pakistan a localized air defense advantage over India in the Kashmir region.

India’s national strength is far greater than Pakistan’s, but the Indian Air Force lags behind. Like Pakistan, its air defense systems rely on imports. India’s military equipment is a mix of various systems, with over half of it sourced from Russia. In recent years, India has purchased French “Rafale” jets and is now beginning to buy American-made equipment. The varying levels of interoperability and technological advancement of these systems lead to challenges in achieving unified operational integration and coordination, which affects their overall effectiveness in joint operations.

Pakistan had previously purchased American F-16s, but after the U.S. raised concerns about Pakistan’s alleged ties to “terrorism,” military cooperation with Pakistan was suspended, and Pakistan’s effort at military modernization thus became entirely reliant on China. The Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets and the export version of the JF-17 Thunder (JF-17) have become widely used in Pakistan, and batches of Chinese-made Hongqi (HQ-9) air defense missiles have been supplied. In the 2019 India-Pakistan conflict, there were reports of Pakistan using JF-17 Thunder aircraft to shoot down Indian jets, which greatly enhanced the reputation of Chinese military equipment.

This time, the number of Indian aircraft claimed to have been shot down by the Pakistani military was significant, and while India did not directly confirm Pakistan’s statement, Indian media effectively implicitly confirmed it, making the event cause a major stir internationally. If the details of this incident are further confirmed, it will provide a powerful and shocking real-world example that could reshape global perceptions of China’s military capabilities and overall strength. This battle marks a clear defeat for the U.S.-made medium-range air-to-air missiles and European-made Meteor long-range missiles when faced with China’s PL-15 missile, as their beyond-visual-range (BVR) strike capability falls short compared to China’s. It also highlights how U.S.-made and French-made radar systems pale in comparison to the radar system on the JF-17 Thunder B3, which, in contrast, performs like “nearsighted” compared to the latter. Russian aircraft, known for their speed and maneuverability, are now being outclassed in an era where “avionics and weapon systems” and “system integration” are key. While Russian and French manufacturers prioritize maneuverability, they cannot match the electronic warfare capabilities of the JF-17.

Modern air combat is primarily about beyond-visual-range engagements, with missiles being fired from tens or even hundreds of kilometers away. Aircraft can launch missiles at ground targets from over 100 kilometers, and surface-to-air missiles also have ranges exceeding 100 kilometers. This means that much of the action takes place beyond visual range, where electronic warfare often proves to be more crucial than the speed and climb rate of aircraft.

This India-Pakistan clash showcased China’s air defense capabilities. It’s widely known that the JF-17, while effective, is not the most advanced aircraft in China’s fleet. It lags behind the J-20 in terms of generation, and its overall combat capabilities are also somewhat distant from the J-10. Similarly, the HQ-9P is not the top-tier missile in its series. This battle seems to suggest the following points:

China’s military manufacturing has now surpassed both Russia and France. As there has been no direct confrontation between Chinese and American equipment, the current India-Pakistan battlefield-featuring American electronics in Indian aircraft-has thrust into the public eye a critical question: who holds the upper hand in a war between China and the US. In today’s electronic warfare, a U.S, victory is no longer a foregone conclusion; instead, it has become an open question.

If the information available thus far is accurate, we can safely deduce that since India  lost miserably in an air battle with Pakistan, it could barely count as a match for China. India’s military, relying on Russian and French aircraft, has been thoroughly humiliated by Chinese military technology. China’s weapons are almost entirely domestically produced, forming a massive, integrated system, while India’s aircraft are all imports, and at that, only of a certain level. India’s national pride will certainly take a significant hit as a result.

Taiwan should also be deeply concerned. They now know that the air force and electronic warfare capabilities of mainland China are world-class. Our military equipment advantage in the Taiwan Strait is simply unmatched. If the PLA were to engage, Taiwan’s military would be completely overwhelmed. The willingness and confidence of the U.S. to intervene militarily will increasingly become uncertain.

Editor: LQQ