I’m in Manufacturing, and I Know Trump Can’t Bring It Back

Trump is trying to revive American manufacturing by waging a global tariff war. And from what I see, many Americans genuinely hope to see factories return—and they truly believe the country can make it happen.

I work in manufacturing and deal with real products every day. And I’ll say this bluntly: most Americans have become disconnected from how the industry actually works. They don’t really understand what modern manufacturing requires—or what the global market demands. The ambition to restore American industry is real, but the tools Trump leans on are still rooted in economics and finance, not industry.

A video of an AI-generated American screwing in bolts has gone viral on Chinese social media.

The world runs on hard realities. Britain was once a global manufacturing powerhouse, but pollution and public unrest eventually forced it to shift its industrial base to the United States. At the time, Britain still dominated global finance, with London as the world’s financial center. But that didn’t last either. Over time, finance followed manufacturing to the U.S. The hard truth is this: without real industry, there’s no real financial power.

Just look at America today. I believe that many Americans understand what’s going on. Manufacturing has moved overseas, and the U.S. has became a global financial hub. But how long can that last? The public might not hear the ticking clock, but the elites do. A finance-driven economy isn’t built to endure forever. Sooner or later, that center of gravity will shift again. Consider this: the Jewish people are among the most brilliant financiers in the world, with immense financial influence. Yet for thousands of years, they had no country of their own. Why? Because without core industrial strength, finance alone isn’t enough to sustain a nation.

Manufacturing remains the core strength of any nation. It’s the foundation of national power, supporting both the military and the financial sector. And I believe Trump understands this. But if the U.S. truly wants to bring manufacturing back, it needs to rebuild the entire ecosystem to support it. This isn’t about fixing a single sector, adjusting a policy direction, or ramping up a specific capability, let alone just raising tariffs.

I run a manufacturing business, and we export to the U.S. We’ve had many internal discussions about whether production might eventually return to America.

Take this example: a product with a factory price of $100 in China typically sells for around $300 in the U.S. market. That $200 difference gets eaten up by logistics, warehousing, marketing, distribution, sales tax, after-sales service, and profit margins. It may sound like a lot, but in reality, profit is tight. A 25% gross margin is already considered pretty good.

Now imagine the U.S. imposes a 54% tariff. That $100 product now faces added duties, plus $20 for shipping and $2 for insurance. Our landed cost jumps to $165, so we raise the retail price to $400. Would American consumers stop buying? Maybe not. But here’s the real question: could the U.S. produce that same item for $400—or even $500 or $600? If it could, we’d be facing real competition. But that’s simply not the case.

For the U.S. to make the same product, it would first need to build new factories, purchase equipment, train workers, and develop manufacturing processes. That alone would take years and generate little to no output at the start. The upfront investment could easily run into the tens of millions, and all of it would be built into the final cost. Raw material prices would also spike in the U.S. In the end, a product we make for $100 in China would cost around $500 to manufacture in the U.S., and the market price could soar to $1,500.

If Apple were to bring iPhone production back to the U.S., the price would triple. I don’t think Tim Cook would go for that. He’d rather walk away from the business than move production back.

For many companies, the real challenge isn’t tariffs but the unpredictability of U.S. policy. Who knows what might happen if Trump steps down tomorrow? If tariffs rise, prices rise. Sure, that affects our sales. But if we move production to the U.S., the impact on our business would be even worse.

Reshoring manufacturing is a long, painful journey. It requires consensus across society—from government and education to industrial policy and infrastructure. It means rebuilding capability across the board. This isn’t a 4-year term project. It’s a 20-year commitment. Elites might see the problem clearly. But solving it is another matter.

Editor: Li Jingyi