I believe this could rank among the most self-defeating moves we can expect from the Trump administration. It is very, very self-defeating for at least two key reasons.

Firstly, examining the US balance of payments reveals a consistent surplus in service exports. Higher education stands out as a sector where the US can easily generate profit and significant surplus with countries like China, India, and South Korea. If President Trump damages this sector, the US stands to lose a substantial portion of its trading surplus. Considering Trump’s obsession with surplus, it is counterproductive to undermine one of its most important sources.

Secondly, the US, as a superpower, possesses the unique privilege to harvest the most talented individuals globally. The impact varies by country. China, with its robust and developed domestic economy, suffers relatively less from brain drain. Talented Chinese individuals often have a ‘Plan B’; if unable to stay in the US, they can return home, mitigating the effect on China. The situation is different for countries like India, where the domestic market and economy are less robust, and advanced research facilities are less developed. Many talented Indians aspire to move to the US permanently, making India more susceptible to brain drain. Therefore, if Trump damages US higher education and research capabilities, it would severely impair America’s ability to attract this global talent pool.

Ultimately, without a steady supply of skilled individuals in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) from around the world, the US’s fundamental capacity would be significantly weakened. As major power competition hinges on productivity, research, and development, it seems remarkably unwise to undermine such a core strength. This move appears purely self-defeating: the losses are certain, while the potential gains remain highly uncertain. It is difficult to comprehend the rationale behind Trump pursuing this course of action.

Editor: Charriot Zhai