Editor's note:
In the early hours of November 6 (local time), former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election at the Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida. If China had once placed the U.S. on a pedestal—when the U.S. was seen as China’s most important trade partner, a beacon of democracy, and a critical country whose relations were high on the agenda of any international relations discussions— the past seven years have shattered all of that, along with the U.S. punitive measures against China.
When Trump’s initial rise to power caused quite a commotion within Chinese academia, Chinese scholars now watch his return, as Professor Zhang Weiwei remarked, “with ease, and even amusement”.
Professor of International Relations at Fudan University
" Now, let’s see if the U.S. will head towards 'civil war'. "
This election is unlike any other in U.S. history. The current scenario might be similar to 2020, where even after the results are announced, a consensus may not be reached. Going forward, what are currently perceived as anomalies in political and social life will appear more often.
Robert Kagan wrote an op-ed for The Washington Post around 2021, titled Our Constitutional Crisis is Already Here, warning that merely nominating Trump as the Republican candidate—let alone re-electing him—could plunge the U.S. into a severe constitutional crisis.
His analysis of the situation following a Trump victory has been underestimated. He predicts that the Democrats would claim that Trump’s victory is procedurally flawed, calling it a result of systemic fraud. They would also argue that the Republican Party, through various procedural measures, has systematically and structurally suppressed Democratic voters, for example lowering their turnout and misleadlingly affecting their voting behavior in its favor.
Another tool the Democrats might pull out of their tool box-to label Trump’s victory as the grave threat to American democracy. Under this framework, evey U.S. citizen is charged with a duty by the U.S. Constitution, law, morality, and value systems to negate the result and rebel, such as taking to the streets, not as an act of insurrection, but a defense of the democratic system.
Another mindset permeating among the grassroots activists within the Democratic Party is the belief that the American political system loses all legitimacy if Democratic politicians are not elected to power.
These Democrats openly propose two concepts. First, that American society is deeply ill and that the remedy is to ensure that Democrats with progressive stances hold key positions across all levels. Voting and election participation, in this view, are the cure for this illness. However, if the election results do not meet their expectations, they argue there’s an issue.
Their second inference is that, as long as the “right people” are elected, procedural rigor can be compromised.
Following this logic, if Trump wins, this extreme faction of the Democrats might seek alternative means beyond electoral politics because the election system has proven useless in remedying the U.S. political system. This might not necessarily mean a systemic revolution, a color revolution, or even coup, but it’s clear that the extreme and hardline factions of the Democrats won’t accept any result other than a Democratic victory.
Moving forward, we should watch for three things between November 5 and January 21: first, whether either side prematurely declares victory before the official results are announced by the Associated Press, sparking a wave of public opinion and even real-life conflicts; second, whether the transition of power goes smoothly, or if it will provoke incidents such as January 6; and third, whether, as the transfer ceremony takes place in Washington, party-related violent clashes might occur across states, resembling scenes from the American film Civil War.
Expert on international issues. Professor at the School of International Relations, Renmin University
" U.S. Presidency Is Not a Coveted Job "
Whoever gets elected will be sitting in the hot seat.
But from a spectator’s perspective, Trump’s win promises more entertainment. He has proposed, once elected U.S. president, to declassify both the Kennedy files the files on “Lolita Island” .
Of course, we don’t hope for a full-scale civil war in the U.S., but we believe that the U.S.’s internal conflicts are extremely intense. So, whoever is elected will face tough times; U.S. Presidency is not a coveted job.
The political landscape in the U.S. has shifted: issues that once found broad consensus are now identity-based and harder to negotiate. This is a major, and dangerous, change.
When conflicts shift from disputes over interests to clashes of identity, they become much sharper and more challenging to reconcile. If these identity-based conflicts are not effectively curbed, they could degrade the quality of American politics.
In the past, many Chinese intellectuals believed that, despite its many issues, America had a unique ability to self-correct. But now that its politics have shifted from interest-based to identity-based, its ability to self-correct may be diminishing.
Professor at School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan-University
" Trump Cannot Save America "
Trump’s base of support is less about strong loyalty and more a reflection of deep-seated divisions brought on by neoliberal policies over the last 30 years. These divisions cannot be erased by simple electoral outcomes or policy adjustments.
This time, Trump has the backing of a group of internet tycoons. These individuals represent a force that emerged from the process of neoliberalism. They don’t believe in any specific nation-state, yet they recognize that achieving their political ideals requires a strong state. Their political vision perhaps traces back to the dreams of extreme individualists and anarchists from the early 20th century.
During Trump’s first term, a political faction supported by these internet magnates began to appear within the Republican Party. This group plays a significant role behind the newly rising forces within the party.
In our idealized view, democratic elections enable a smooth transition of power. However, such stability only occurs when the country’s overall situation is relatively stable. Today, American society is deeply divided and highly unequal, a result of vastly unequal economic distribution. These conditions have led to two distinct political stances and lifestyles. Under these circumstances, a two-party electoral system undeniably exacerbates these divisions.
The challenges America faces today stem from the past 20 to 30 years, a period in which the country’s economic and social development has been constrained. Neoliberal policies have created vast inequality and deep divisions within society.
The harm hasn’t been limited to foreign interests; it’s also affected domestic workers in deindustrialized sectors and farmers. Their hardships cannot be solved through simple elections. Shifting blame to China is only a temporary way to divert attention from these conflicts. Whether it’s Trump or someone else in office, this won’t change. If the status quo continues, future U.S. president will continually resort to diversion and overseas exploitation. This approach seeks to keep all nations of the Global South at the “appropriate” end of the global production chain — from the American imperialist perspective, at the lowest, downstream end.
Executive director of The New Paradigm Foundation, Formerly head of the Hong Kong government's Central Policy Unit
" Trump’s Presidency Means More Bargaining Potential for China "
For China, there’s greater potential to bargain with Trump than with the Democrats.
Trump will likely demand that NATO, Japan, South Korea, and other allies increase their defense contributions, transferring more benefits to the U.S. to compensate for its efforts.
However, this approach could intensify divisions between the U.S. and its allies. Biden’s efforts to unite allies in countering China would thus be undermined, providing China more room to improve relations with Europe, Japan, and South Korea.
Regarding the Middle East, due to the influence of Jewish interests in the U.S., Trump’s policy toward Israel may remain relatively unchanged. But if U.S. relations with these other allies deteriorate, they will need to reassess their relationship with the U.S. and their place in international relations, which could ultimately help China strengthen ties with these countries.
As for Sino-Russian relations, while a Trump win could alter U.S.-Russia relations, the stability of Sino-Russian ties—developed over recent years—would not suffer a significant setback even if U.S.-Russia relations normalize.
On the Taiwan issue, Trump would likely approach it from a short-term, practical perspective, encouraging Taiwan to increase its weapon purchases while treating Taiwan merely as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China. This could slightly curb the provocative actions of the “Taiwan independence” authorities. Similar dynamics may unfold in the Philippines, potentially easing tensions in the South China Sea.
Distinguished Professor at Shanghai International Studies University
" When Identity Politics Overwhelms the U.S. "
This year’s election is the most critical since the Civil War because the U.S. has never been so divided. Each side considers the other to be “fake Americans,” believing they are the true Americans.
National identity includes both cultural and political dimensions. Cultural identity involves habits and practices, while political identity is tied to citizenship and civic duty. In the U.S., a lack of a unified cultural identity and political identity is glaring.
With the rise of identity politics, two distinct political identities—or identity affiliations—have emerged. Supporters of Trump, often referred to as conservatives, are predominantly white and believe that America was established by white Europeans who arrived on the Mayflower, viewing others as merely supplementary. This group sees government authority as inherently negative since it imposes taxes.
Consequently, they are firm believers in “small government, big society,” which forms their core ideology. For them, the U.S. Constitution’s primary purpose is to “control the government.” The presidential oath, a paramount political ceremony in their eyes, serves as the embodiment of their understanding of their country.During the oath, the new president places one hand on the Bible, the other over their heart, and says “God Bless America.” This group of people see the U.S. as fundamentally a Christian nation.
On the other hand, another group of Americans firmly supports the Democratic Party. They believe America was built through immigration, with whites as just one group among many, including Black and Asian Americans. This perspective gave rise to movements like “Black Lives Matter.” Since they see America as a nation founded by diverse immigrant groups, they uphold the value of pluralism and believe the country should be governed by elites rather than by white people.
Both Obama and Harris have built their political standing from the identities they represent. They do not view government as inherently negative but rather as necessary and something that should grow with society; they dismiss the notion of “small government, big society” as a fallacy.
These two groups also differ in their manners of protest. After the pandemic, the U.S. experienced roughly 60-70 nationwide demonstrations. Observers noted that Trump supporters are highly organized and disciplined, often coming from suburban areas and chanting slogans like “Law and Order.” Their demonstrations are so orderly that the police could practically stand down.
In contrast, demonstrations by supporters of Obama or Biden sometimes involve looting and vandalism, with participants dispersing abruptly after.
If Trump wins again, and Harris’s supporters do not accept the result, this faction’s weaker organizational ability might lead to widespread unrest across the country.
This election is unique in that prominent capitalists have taken a public stance, such as Elon Musk and Bill Gates, albeit they are still few. Previously, big capitalists bet on both sides behind the scenes.
These endorsements reveal three things:
First, identity politics has become so serious that major capitalists find it difficult to maintain balanace and must choose a side.
Secondly, some big capitalists believe that the right president will greatly benefit their interests.
Thirdly, international affairs and personal grievances are intertwined. For instance, Musk’s support for Trump stemmed partly from personal grievances: Tesla lacks a labor union, so Biden cannot grant subsidies to the company. Musk believes Tesla is the leader in electric vehicles, yet Biden claims General Motors leads due to its unionized workforce. Additionally, Musk’s oldest son transitioned from male to female without his knowledge, a decision he deeply resents.