How China Will Respond to Japan’s Taiwan Claim, Step by Step

cs_opinion_img
Japan’s obsession with Taiwan risks highlighting its own illegitimate Ryukyu occupation and the now-defunct basis for waiving war reparations to China.
January 22, 2026
Zhang Weiwei
Professor of Political Science; Director the China Institute of Fudan University
Click Register
Register
Try Premium Member
for Free with a 7-Day Trial
Click Register
Register
Try Premium Member for Free with a 7-Day Trial

The following article is derived from the transcript of the nationally top-rated Chinese political TV program, China Now:

On November 7, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly declared that a “Taiwan contingency” would constitute an “existential crisis” for Japan, implying that Japan could intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait situation. This aroused strong indignation among the Chinese people. I also expressed my views on social media. I said that Takaichi’s absurd remarks are intolerable. But I made a suggestion: I said that perhaps we can go with the flow. Since “a Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency,” then let’s accelerate the process of national reunification. I want to see how the overinflated  Japan will intervene militarily. We are waiting for an opportunity to punish the Japanese militarist forces.

At the same time, Takaichi’s remarks also undermined the political foundation of the Joint Communique for the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan signed in 1972. If Japan doesn’t want the “Sino-Japanese Joint Communique,” why should we keep it? Since this is the case, we can initiate the war reparations for the Japanese invasion of China! The heinous crimes committed by Japan against the Chinese people during the Japanese invasion are too numerous to count. We might as well fulfill Takaichi’s wish, accelerate national reunification, and at the same time, strive to settle all the old and new debts that Japan owes to the Chinese people. This short video, only one minute long, was widely circulated, and the number of viewers on several major social media platforms exceeded respectively one million on that day. I think, in a sense, it also reflects the mainstream public opinion in China.

In fact, this is also a form of online political advice and suggestions, which is part of our new era’s whole-process people’s democracy and also part of the online “mass line”. Our program China Now is, in a sense, a platform for offering policy advice and suggestions. It gathers public wisdom and builds consensus on a wide range of issues, serving society and impacting the world at large. Below, I will elaborate a bit on my previous comments. These are my personal opinions, for reference only.

First, after Sanae Takaichi’s erroneous remarks, there were differing opinions online and within ourselves. Many advocated prioritizing the issue of punishing the resurgence of Japanese militarism, while I argued against being distracted and instead focusing on the main aspect of the main contradiction, which is firmly advancing the great cause of national reunification. I believe that once the issue of national reunification is fundamentally resolved, the momentum of the resurgence of Japanese militarism will be at least halved.
Second, I believe the conditions for accelerating the process of national reunification are ripe. I advocate continuously introducing various measures—political, military, economic, diplomatic, legal, and administrative—to accelerate the process of national reunification. Once an opportunity arises, we should resolve this issue swiftly and decisively.

Furthermore, my assessment is that once the Taiwanese independence regime collapses and extreme pro-independence elements are brought to justice, those pro-independence ideologies lacking deep cultural roots will quickly lose their influence, just as fascism quickly disappeared in Germany after the collapse of the Hitler regime.

Finally, the recently published US National Security Strategy once again shows that the United States is no longer able to maintain global hegemony. President Trump himself is the one who most acknowledges the importance of strength. Our show has repeatedly pointed out that economically, the US’s dependence on China has long surpassed China’s dependence on the US; militarily, there is already a generational gap in strength between China and the US in favor of China. Various signs also indicate that Trump only respects strong leaders and strong countries. In his eyes, only he himself, the Chinese leader, and the Russian leader are truly strong leaders in the world today. This era, with these three leaders intertwined, indeed contains certain historical opportunities; we must seize the moment, as such opportunities may not come again.

As for the overinflated Japanese militarist forces, we should consider how to punish them with a medium- and long-term strategy. I have a few points to share: First, we should consider making the work of punishing the resurgence of Japanese militarism a regular, legalized, and institutionalized process. For example, we should promptly enact relevant laws and regulations to punish Japanese politicians who visit the Yasukuni Shrine, ranging from banning their entry into China to prohibiting their business dealings with China. Secondly, we must continue to express our serious concerns regarding the status of the Ryukyu Islands. As is well known, the Ryukyu Islands have never been an inherent territory of Japan. According to the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation, Japanese territory was limited to Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, and islands designated by the Allied powers. Even the 1951 US-Japan San Francisco Peace Treaty, which was neither recognized nor accepted by China and Russia, only placed the Ryukyu Islands under US trusteeship and did not involve sovereignty. In 1972, the United States unilaterally returned administrative control of the Ryukyu Islands to Japan without UN authorization, but this only involved administrative power, and even then, the Chinese government lodged a strong protest. Japan, however, considers the Ryukyu Islands as its inherent territory and uses this as a basis for its so-called sovereignty claims, such as the median line in the East China Sea. If we declare that the Ryukyu Islands do not belong to Japan, it would fundamentally undermine the legal basis of these so-called Japanese sovereignty claims.

Thirdly, we should consider initiating the war reparations from Japan. When China and Japan established diplomatic relations in 1972, China’s waiver of war reparations was conditional, particularly as the Joint Communiqué stated: the Japanese side deeply regretted the significant damage caused to the Chinese people by Japan’s past wars and expressed profound remorse; the Chinese government reiterated that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China. The Japanese government fully understood and respected this position of the Chinese government and adhered to the position of Article 8 of the Potsdam Proclamation, which required Japan to abide by the Cairo Declaration, returning territories stolen from China, such as the four northeastern provinces, Taiwan, and the Penghu Islands. In short, once we determine that these political foundations of Sino-Japanese relations have been undermined by Japan, China can initiate war reparations from Japan.

Finally, we must decide under what conditions we can invoke the “enemy state clauses” in the UN Charter, including Articles 53, 77, and 107. These clauses grant the anti-fascist Allied powers exceptional authority to take military action to prevent the resurgence of the Axis powers of World War II. Article 53 of the UN Charter explicitly stipulates that if a defeated nation resumes its aggressive path, or if such a possibility threatens, the relevant regional organizations or anti-fascist allied nations may take direct military action without authorization from the UN Security Council. On November 21, Chinese Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Fu Cong, sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Guterres, pointing out that if Japan dares to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait situation, it will constitute an act of aggression, and China will resolutely exercise its right of self-defense granted by the UN Charter and international law. I also believe that if Japan develops nuclear weapons, it must be considered a trigger for invoking the “enemy clause.”

Not long ago, China and Russia held the 20th round of strategic security consultations in Moscow, where the two sides had in-depth communication and reached a consensus on strategic security issues. The press releases issued by both sides used the concept of “strategic alignment.” Former Russian Defense Minister and Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, made a sharp observation: Japanese militarism is like the nine-headed hydra in Greek mythology, but Russia and China have rich historical experience in severing the heads of the hydra. Undoubtedly, the people of China and Russia, and indeed all peace-loving people in the world, will unite and prevent Japan from challenging the post-war international order. We will show no mercy to the Japanese militarist forces that want to “stir up trouble,” and we will strike back decisively! That’s all I wanted to share with you today. Thank you!

Editor: Zhiyu Wang

$10 MONTHLY
VIEWS BY

author_image
Professor of Political Science; Director the China Institute of Fudan University
Share This Post

Leave a Reply