Good News on China-US Tariffs, Prices of Some Goods Still Expected to Rise by 15%

On Monday at 3 AM Eastern Time (3 PM Beijing Time), many U.S. importers and retailers might have experienced the most exciting moment in recent months…
For weeks, Jay Foreman, CEO of Florida-based toy company Basic Fun, nearly froze all shipments from China. A large number of teddy bears and Tonka truck toys were piled up in Chinese factories to avoid paying the up to 145% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods.
But in the early hours of Monday, when his phone rang and informed him that Trump would significantly cut tariffs on Chinese imports, Foreman quickly jumped out of bed and called Chinese suppliers to urge them to start shipping immediately.
“We’re spinning up all systems,” Foreman said. “We need to contact the Chinese trucking company immediately to arrange pickup from the factory and secure container slots.”
Clearly, Foreman wasn’t the only U.S. executive having such an experience.
Mark Barrocas, CEO of SharkNinja, kept refreshing news feeds on Sunday night to find any signs of a tariff agreement between the U.S. and China. Finally, on early Monday, the good news arrived…
Barrocas immediately informed Chinese factories to release shipments to the U.S., including coffee makers and frozen drink machines. He stated, “We had hundreds of containers stranded in China when tariffs took effect; now they can finally be shipped.”
Many similar business executives expressed their intention to arrange upcoming shipments immediately. After receiving the news from her husband and partner Jon Dazeley on Monday morning, Hightail Hair co-founder Jennifer Burch immediately began handling nearly 4,000 motorcycle helmet nets stranded in China. “We will ship out the existing inventory as soon as possible,” she said.
In fact, many U.S. companies dependent on Chinese imports have been in distress for weeks since the Trump administration announced tariffs in April. These companies faced the need to raise prices, cut costs, and lay off workers to cope with cost pressures. Now, the apparent trade “truce” is likely to break the deadlock, explaining the excitement among them.
On Monday, U.S. capital markets also felt buoyed by the positive tariff news: U.S. stocks surged, the dollar jumped, and market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut cooled significantly.
Never been so “excited” about a 30% cost increase.
Steve Greenspon, CEO of home goods firm Honey-Can-Do International, reflected, “A 30% tariff would be a disaster under normal circumstances. But now, compared to the 145% figure, it’s a godsend. However, corporate profit margins will still be squeezed.”
Monty Sharma, CEO of Los Angeles-based health product manufacturer Therabody, joked, “Never in my 40-year career have I been so happy about a 30% cost increase.”
Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, analyzed that companies dealing in essential medical supplies and holiday goods might take this opportunity to replenish inventories due to the tariff reduction. However, common products like refrigerators and patio furniture wouldn’t see a massive influx.
Many U.S. companies started stockpiling early in the year to mitigate tariff risks. Even so, as Trump imposed tariffs on major trading partners worldwide, many U.S. importers canceled or froze billions of dollars of orders, leaving seasonal sales inventories at risk of shortfalls.
Apparel company CMCBrands had two container loads of sportswear and jackets stranded in Chinese factories for over a month. CEO Ellen Brin plans to ship them quickly and negotiate with customers to share the tariff costs. After the deal was announced, the Chinese factory immediately sent an email, and the company quickly notified the resumption of remaining order production.
“Even if we act now, delivery times are still later than in previous years,” Brin admitted. “But if the gridlock persisted longer, delays in fall new products would result in customers switching orders or empty shelves.”
Foreman of Basic Fun commented that while the 30% tariff is challenging for medium-sized companies like his, it’s manageable. He noted the possibility of negotiating with suppliers and retailers selling their products to share the higher costs. Additionally, he expects consumer-facing toy prices to rise about 15% at this tariff level.
Currently, with a 90-day delay on an additional 24% reciprocal tariff between China and the U.S., some American importers are scrambling to see if Chinese suppliers can fulfill orders within the next 90 days and ship them by the end of July. It usually takes 2-3 weeks for shipments from Chinese ports to reach the U.S. West Coast.
However, due to tight timelines, Seroka forecasts that there will not be a massive surge in imports in the coming weeks. He added that large retailers might still have sufficient inventories due to massive stockpiling before the April tariff implementation.
In fact, the impacts of previous Trump tariffs were evident in shipping data. According to logistics technology companies Vizion and Dun & Bradstreet, container shipment orders from China to the U.S. dropped 45% over the past five weeks compared to the same period last year.
Seroka stated that compared to the same period in 2024, the Port of Los Angeles last week received 31% fewer containers, and the number of visiting ships fell by 20%.
Now, shipping companies might have to restructure networks, leading to capacity constraints. Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at shipping market analysis firm Xeneta, noted that in the short term, shipping fees could rise by 20% as a result.
Editor: Zhongxiaowen