On May 20th local time, Trump announced at the White House the establishment of a space-based missile defense system known as the “Golden Dome”, with an estimated total cost of $1.75 trillion, and aims to achieve “full operation” within 3 years.

Actually, as early as late January this year, Trump signed an executive order to launch the construction plan for a missile defense system named “America’s Iron Dome”.

According to Trump, Israel’s Iron Dome was built with help from the U.S., and with America’s more advanced technology today, the U.S. can construct an even better air defense missile system than Israel’s. However, this seemingly rational military plan was collectively criticized by American experts: Israel’s Iron Dome defends against short-range rockets and requires 24,000 units to cover the U.S. mainland, costing $2.5 trillion! That’s not even enough if you sold all of California!

Thus, Trump had a brainwave: change the name! In less than a month, America’s Iron Dome was transformed into America’s Golden Dome by February this year.

Now, the upgraded version of the “Golden Dome” incorporates sci-fi elements. It will be a multi-layered defense system combining space, land, and sea, with thousands of low-orbit satellites as its core, divided into detection satellites and interceptor satellites. Detection satellites use radar and infrared equipment to lock onto missile launches, while interceptor satellites carry kinetic weapons or laser devices to intercept missiles during their initial boost phase.

Trump even boasted that, once completed, not a single fly could get into the U.S. mainland, and it could even defend against attacks from space.

Sounds sci-fi, right? But here’s the problem: can such a system truly be realized? One can only say, the ideal is rich, but the reality is quite stark.

Trump’s claim of completing and operating it within three years is quite exaggerated.

Bear in mind, Reagan’s “Star Wars” plan took 10 years and nearly a trillion dollars, eventually failing due to technical bottlenecks and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Not to mention, Israel’s Iron Dome took 20 years from development to deployment, and America’s THAAD system took 15 years. The technological complexity of the “Golden Dome” far exceeds that of the past. Just the satellite deployment alone, even at SpaceX’s satellite launch speed for “Starlink”, at most, 2,000 satellites can be deployed per year, needing at least 2 years for the required scale of thousands.

Moreover, the development, testing, and practical deployment of interceptors require even more time. Tom Karako from the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted, “Even if everything goes smoothly, the ‘Golden Dome’ won’t have initial combat capability until 2035.”

Trump’s claim to complete the “Golden Dome” in three years is more absurd than expecting a kindergarten kid to build a skyscraper in the same time!

Even more laughable is that the core technology of the Golden Dome is still in the concept phase.

The so-called space-based interceptor is essentially installing a missile on a satellite to intercept in the initial minutes post-missile launch. But the problem is that the missile’s boost phase is only a 5-minute window where the interceptor must complete detection, tracking, launching, and interception – potentially harder than getting Trump to memorize the Bible.

Studies by the American Physical Society suggest intercepting a volley of 10 North Korean solid-fuel ICBMs would require at least 16,000 interceptor satellites, while currently, the U.S. has fewer than 5,000 satellites in orbit altogether. What’s more concerning is that hypersonic weapons can perform irregular maneuvers at the edge of the atmosphere, making current technology ineffective for tracking.

American scientist Greg plainly states, “Even if space is filled with satellites, they can’t stop hypersonic missile trajectory changes.”

Furthermore, Trump faces the bigger headache of funding: who’s footing the astronomical bill? Although he asserts a total budget of $1.75 trillion, with an initial $250 billion to be arranged in next fiscal year’s congressional review, it’s obviously an “underestimated” quote.

The report by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office indicated the program might cost $831 billion over the next 20 years, with Senator Tim Sihas bluntly stating final costs might exceed $1 trillion.

So where does this money come from? Trump’s plan is to gain budget approval from Congress while splitting costs with allies.

Currently, Canada has expressed interest, but European nations have shown a lukewarm response, compounded by major domestic disputes over “Golden Dome” fund allocation.

Democratic lawmakers question the plan as a “feast for the military-industrial complex”, accusing Trump of diverting defense budgets from essential projects like naval ships and air force aircraft to space programs. Nobel laureate Joseph warned spending hundreds of billions on the “Golden Dome” would siphon off funds from healthcare, education, and other vital sectors, exacerbating societal inequality. Essentially, it is using the American people’s lifeline to pay for Trump’s space dreams.

Looking at American social media shows blunt opinions that “Golden Dome” is a bottomless pit, swallowing money without making a sound. Some mockingly state Trump’s Golden Dome will transform America from the Rust Belt to the “Golden Poor” Belt.

Then why is Trump aggressively promoting the Golden Dome at this juncture?

Trump, known for “governing by Twitter”, understands the traffic effect. Facing declining approval ratings, he urgently needs a “big news” story to consolidate his support base, especially before the 2026 midterm elections to project an image of a “strong leader”.

More subtly, whether the “Golden Dome” succeeds or not, it would temporarily boost the U.S. space industry, creating tens of thousands of high-paying jobs, directly benefiting Trump’s core electoral states like Texas and Florida. Furthermore, a “Golden Dome” similar to the “Star Wars” initiative resonates with nostalgic sentiments of the Reagan era among Americans, while also diverting attention from domestic economic issues.

Of course, most importantly, the “Golden Dome” could procure substantial contracts for Trump’s major backers in the U.S. military defense industry. Traditional giants like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and newer players like SpaceX and Palantir are competing for these contracts.

Take SpaceX for example. Although Elon Musk has denied it, insiders say they have set their sights on the Jindome’s satellite contract. Imagine, launching a satellite costs SpaceX approximately $62 million, with a profit margin exceeding 30%. This means that each launch can earn nearly $18 million. Launching 1,000 satellites would result in $18 billion! This money is earned faster than a printing press.

But is everything really as optimistic as Trump envisions?

Looking back at history, Reagan’s “Star Wars” program, proposed in 1983, was equally ambitious but was ultimately terminated in 1993 due to technical impracticality and economic pressure. Now, with Trump reheating this old concept, the outcome is predictable.

Adding to the skepticism, even American experts are not convinced. Physicist Theodore noted, “The technical feasibility of Jindome is zero; it’s merely an expensive political symbol.”

Simulations by the RAND Corporation indicate that even with a 90% interception success rate, the Jindome would still allow five missiles to penetrate defenses during a saturation attack. This essentially forces American citizens to play Russian roulette in a nuclear war, where losing means certain catastrophe. Even some Republican lawmakers have questioned the practicality of the program, suggesting that priority should be given to upgrading the existing “THAAD” and “Patriot” systems.

Ironically, Trump is pushing Jindome while also withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, clearly indicating a desire to start a space arms race.

And Trump? He doesn’t care about all this.

He only cares about his impressive political achievements, defense contractors’ donations, and his place in history. As for the lives of the American people and the country’s future, they are merely trivial matters to him.

After all, three years later, when the Jindome system fails due to technical malfunctions and funding shortages, Trump may have already moved on.

Meanwhile, the American public can only look up at the sky and sigh, “We haven’t seen the Jindome, but we’ve truly seen ‘Jindome’ become ‘Jinpoor’.”

Editor: Zhongxiaowen