Even If the U.S. Buys TikTok Now, It’s Already Too Late

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In the U.S., the hot topic on trending searches is the potential sale of TikTok. But in China, the actions of the TikTok refugees have already outpaced the calculations of the rich. The author of this article believes that "TikTok's last-minute reprieve was too late, because the real security threat from the U.S. has arrived."
January 16, 2025
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【This article is AI-translated by the largest political website in China, Guancha.cn, authored by Chen Feng.】

TikTok is on the verge of collapse. Even if a miracle happens and TikTok is spared at the last minute, it’s too late because a security threat to the US is imminent.

American Confidence

Throughout history, there has been no shortage of powerful nations, but the United States is the first “artificial nation”: built from the ground up by immigrants. This statement might be politically incorrect, ignoring the indigenous peoples of America, but the truth is: the indigenous peoples had virtually no impact on the formation and trajectory of modern America.
This means that the foundation of America is not the dollar or the military but a confidence in its system.

America’s confidence can be encapsulated in a phrase from the Statue of Liberty:

Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!

This is confidence, inclusiveness, and hope. Throughout history, this message has inspired those fleeing religious and political persecution, economic hardship, and even those running from trouble. The extent to which America still embodies this notion today is highly debated, but at least Americans still have more trust than doubt.

For America, confidence in the system precedes confidence in national strength. Compared to the “Mayflower” and European immigration waves, America’s rise came later, with its dominating global power solidifying only after World War II.
The Cold War is a milestone in the history of great power competition, cementing George Kennan’s place in history. Yet, the core of the Cold War was “cold” and not “war.” From the outset, Kennan proposed exploiting the USSR’s paranoia and inferiority complex, leveraging overwhelming economic and cultural advantages, along with patience and moral power, to fracture the Soviet Union from within; political and military containment was secondary. From the Truman era, US security strategy deviated from Kennan’s thinking to focus on political and military containment, with economic and cultural fracture as supplemental, shaping the general understanding of the Cold War. For this, the “father of the Cold War,” Kennan, opposed the nation’s Cold War strategy and over-militarization of its security strategy throughout his life, though silenced into frustration. Only upon winning the Cold War, when President Bush awarded him the Freedom Medal, did the world realize there was another potential “game plan” for the Cold War.

However, Kennan’s “game plan” had a threshold: confidence in national strength and in its systems. Confidence in national strength is pragmatic, while confidence in the system is ideological, both are indispensable. The shift in the US security strategy towards predominantly political and military containment boils down to a lack of both confidences.
Fast forward to today, and much of America’s confidence in its national strength has been lost. In dollar terms, the weakening yuan means China’s nominal GDP stagnates relative to the US but in GDP PPP, representing material wealth, China has long surpassed the US, widening the gap by 25%. In the US, services account for 80% of GDP, while in China it’s just 51.6%. In manufacturing GDP PPP, China leads the US by 3:1.

In physical terms, China’s electricity generation is twice that of the US, steel production is 12.6 times higher, cement production is 22 times higher, shipbuilding leads globally, with the US only at 1.2%. China produces 30.2 million cars, selling 26 million domestically, while the US produces 15.5 million with roughly the same domestic sales and limited exports. Chinese buy 4.34 billion phones annually, against 1.44 billion in the US; Chinese meat consumption doubles that of the US, seafood consumption is eight times. Hence, arguably, “actual GDP” leads by more than 25%, somewhere between 25% and 3:1.

Even where the US prides itself, such as AI, DeepSeek v2 startled America. The Chinese matched, at least, the performance of ChatGPT using “inferior” computing power, undermining the significance of the US’s “chip advantage.” The iPhone vs. Huawei battle isn’t just about 3nm technology anymore.

The North-South sixth-generation fighter jets are revolutionary in military terms, ignored by the mainstream media of the US and the UK.

TikTok refugees pour into Rednote, yet another selective blindness.

This phenomenon is already a hot topic in China and is being discussed outside the US and UK, but American and British mainstream media largely ignore it. If one doesn’t follow social media in those countries, they might not even know this is happening, with BBC Chinese questioning sarcastically how long such “interior-exterior” consistency can last.
In many ways, TikTok is China’s “Sputnik moment,” not hypersonic missiles or the sixth-generation fighter jets. Rednote is the “Gagarin moment.”

The “Sputnik moment” and “Gagarin moment” are psychological, not just technical. America’s shift from “we are undoubtedly number one” to doubting “can we actually be second” is a massive psychological gap.

But in the 50s and 60s, confidence in the system remained in the US — Nixon’s “kitchen debate” victory highlights this — and this is America’s greatest backing in winning the Cold War. Kennan was right.

But today, that confidence is shaken.

A superior system should result in national prosperity. America’s “degradation of rites and music” needs no elaboration. While China’s national prosperity hasn’t met expectations, the progress compared to historical status is undisputedly massive. Many areas still lag behind, with gaps to bridge, but were incomparable in the past, much like “I” wouldn’t dream of competing with Fan Zhendong in ping pong. In many aspects, China is becoming Fan Zhendong, while the West is becoming “me.” For Western political and media circuits, the rise of the East and decline of the West is a painful reality to avoid.

Politically, the West can only salvage respect by force; Sullivan boasts “America is stronger, and China weaker,” though it’s uncertain if he believes it himself. Cultural arrogance and political reasons lead Western mainstream media to shroud the elephant in the room — China — with an invisibility cloak. Every movement in the room rings loudly, but to the average public unable to see through the cloak, the world feels inexplicably complex.

“China deceived us” was once a popular accusation, alongside “China took our jobs.” While China vehemently refutes, these accusations are but a futile struggle within the cloak, invisible to the Western public.

Yet they gradually feel it.

First, there was the overwhelming Made-in-China, and now Chinese software like TikTok.
No matter how TikTok is packaged, its “Chinese face” is irrevocable, its original sin. This sin ultimately seals TikTok’s fate, though the process might eventually seal America’s fate.

Many Americans don’t care about TikTok’s Chinese face; fun and functionality suffice. Others wonder how such good software could come from unfree, undemocratic China, as if software requires democracy for quality? Nevertheless, fun and functionality overcome ideological doubts.

However, for unclear reasons, after numerous turns, the US eventually pulls the trigger to ban TikTok.

National security is merely an excuse. Truly for this reason? It should have been banned years ago; letting China spy on the US further, or manipulate US elections several times? Makes no sense. This isn’t about catching spies, enticing more hidden operatives by not arresting. Surely, they weren’t keeping TikTok to expose Pinduoduo, SHEIN, or Alibaba?

Broad security isn’t national security, paranoia isn’t vigilance, perceiving distant theoretical possibilities as imminent dangers — these are hysteria amidst inevitable ruin, and any sensible person knows this. America may be losing confidence in national strength and systems, but retains some reason. Ultimately, while rebuilding the US-China dynamic, it’s too difficult to revive America, so easier to soil China — an easier path first, then hard. Whether useful or not comes later.
But even this would harm what’s left of American confidence in its systems.

170 million Americans know TikTok is Chinese software but disregard governmental and media propaganda about the “China threat,” abandoning Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, WhatsApp — platforms representing freedom and democracy — for TikTok, accused of “stealing American privacy” and “endangering national security.” From the perspective of confidence in systems, it might not reflect distrust in American systems but certainly no opposition to the Chinese ones.

Recently, Rednote has surged to the top download ranks in Five Eyes countries, in part a protest by “TikTok refugees” against its shutdown and also a psychological leap into “virtual China.” TikTok is a “made-from-China, oriented-towards-America” platform, Rednote is “made-from-China, oriented-towards-China,” a platform Westerners had never considered drowning in “voluminous traffic.” For “TikTok refugees,” the Chinese software hurdle had long been crossed, but with “virtual China,” the psychological hurdle cro…

Editor: Zhongxiaowen

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