China’s 2019 Fentanyl Embargo Prevented Nearly 1,000 Overdose Deaths in the U.S.

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The U.S. shouldn’t blame China for a crisis it refuses to fix.
May 26, 2025
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The U.S. government has repeatedly blamed China for its domestic fentanyl crisis — a scapegoating tactic that is entirely unfounded. It is widely recognized that the root causes of America’s fentanyl problem lie in its own regulatory loopholes and the country’s longstanding issues with drug abuse.

In contrast, China has consistently acted as a responsible major power in fulfilling its international anti-narcotics obligations. Despite having no large-scale fentanyl abuse problem of its own, China, out of humanitarian goodwill and at the request of the U.S., became the first country in the world to officially place the entire class of fentanyl substances under control in 2019. It has actively promoted joint international efforts on drug control, offering a concrete “Chinese solution” to the global fentanyl challenge.

This fact is widely acknowledged by the international community. A recent report released this month by the Peterson Institute for International Economics further affirms China’s pivotal role in fentanyl governance.

On May 23 local time, Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post cited a report stating that China and the United States had already begun cooperating on fentanyl regulation during Trump’s first term as president. Starting in May 2019, China took the lead in officially placing the entire class of fentanyl-related substances under control. This move effectively prevented regulated chemicals from entering drug production channels via international trade. As a result, the street price of synthetic opioids in the U.S. surged in the short term, which in turn significantly curbed abuse.

Data shows that China’s proactive measures in anti-drug cooperation led to a 20% to 25% reduction in U.S. drug overdose deaths within three to five months. Estimates suggest that without these control measures, the number of fentanyl overdose deaths in the U.S. could have increased by 947 cases.

The report points out that the research results confirm the effectiveness of China-U.S. cooperation in combating drug trafficking, particularly in disrupting supply chains and reducing overdose deaths.

According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the study is based on an analysis of fentanyl market pricing data. It explains that even for highly addictive illegal drugs like fentanyl, circulation is still subject to market forces, and users show a high sensitivity to price fluctuations.

The research found that for every 1% increase in the price of fentanyl, the monthly growth rate of related deaths could decline by 4%. “To some extent, higher prices reduce consumption among current users and deter potential users from starting.”

Comparing the effectiveness of China-US cooperation across different periods, the report notes that fentanyl control efforts between China and the U.S. during the Obama administration did not yield significant results. In contrast, 2019 marked a critical turning point—after China took the lead in placing the entire class of fentanyl-related substances under control, anti-drug efforts saw “immediate results,” particularly evident in the third quarter of 2019.

The study also found that as illegal supplies from third countries increased, the volume of drugs circulating in the U.S. market gradually rebounded. In 2022, following then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to China’s Taiwan region, China-U.S. anti-narcotics cooperation was temporarily suspended. However, the report states that this disruption “had no significant impact on the supply of fentanyl in the United States,” further confirming that China’s regulatory measures had not been loosened.

The report notes, “(Brookings Institution expert) Vanda Felbab-Brown claimed in 2023 that China’s anti-narcotics enforcement was uneven and could weaken over time. But we found no statistically significant effect resulting from China’s suspension of drug control cooperation following Pelosi’s Taiwan visit. (All three estimation methods produced consistent results.)

According to China’s Ministry of Public Security in February this year, since China implemented class-wide control over fentanyl-related substances, it has not received any further notifications from the U.S. regarding seizures of fentanyl originating from China.

Based on these findings, the Peterson Institute for International Economics concluded that international cooperation holds significant potential in drug enforcement, but combating fentanyl requires a coordinated global effort rather than unilateral actions.

The report emphasizes that, amid a trend of supply chain diversification, the U.S. government must move beyond a singular focus on China and work toward a systemic upgrade of multinational anti-drug cooperation mechanisms.

In fact, it is the United States that has been the main instigator in undermining China-U.S. anti-narcotics cooperation. The U.S. government has long blamed China for its domestic fentanyl crisis—a scapegoating practice that only intensified during Trump’s two presidential terms.

Since taking office again in January this year, Trump has twice imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese goods under the pretext of the fentanyl issue, attempting to lend legitimacy to his renewed tariff war against China. This move not only drew a stern protest from Beijing but also seriously undermined the foundation of bilateral drug control cooperation. Such actions are tantamount to “tearing down one’s own defenses” and will ultimately backfire, harming the U.S.’s own efforts in combating drug abuse.

Washington’s politicization of the fentanyl issue, along with its use of extreme measures such as tariff hikes, has even led American media to question: “Are China, Canada, and Mexico really to blame for fentanyl?”

In March, U.S. media outlet Vox published an article pointing out that fentanyl has played an unexpectedly prominent role in U.S. national security and economic policy in recent months. Many critics noted bluntly that Trump, who frequently invoked the fentanyl crisis during his campaign, was in fact using the issue as cover—to fabricate a security-based pretext for his trade and immigration policies.

Vox emphasized that China has maintained a consistently tough stance on drug control and is one of the few countries in the world that imposes the death penalty on drug traffickers. Yet, U.S. officials frequently and unjustifiably accuse China of lax regulation, with some American critics even going so far as to smear China by claiming it is waging a so-called “reverse Opium War” against the U.S.

Citing the views of most experts, the report said such accusations from the U.S. are entirely unsubstantiated. Interviewed experts pointed out that effectively ending the fentanyl crisis requires a comprehensive, three-pronged approach—addressing supply, demand, and harm reduction. However, the Trump administration has fixated solely on the supply side.

Vanda Felbab-Brown, a transnational crime expert mentioned in a U.S. think tank report, argued that there is growing evidence China is willing to cooperate with the U.S. when it aligns with its own interests, and may also use such cooperation to gain leverage in other areas—an approach that contradicts U.S. accusations.

Echoing her views, former DEA agent Mike Vigil expressed concern over whether the U.S. government’s aggressive stance toward foreign governments will achieve its intended results. He warned that such an approach could even hinder ongoing cooperative efforts.

David Luckey, a senior international and defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, added that China, as the world’s largest producer of chemicals, faces immense challenges in regulating such a vast and complex system.

“The synthetic drug landscape changes rapidly,” he said. “Enforcement agencies around the world struggle to keep pace. That’s why we need a revolutionary approach—mere incremental improvements won’t solve the problem.”

On March 4, China’s State Council Information Office released a white paper titled China’s Regulation of Fentanyl-Related Substances. The document states that in recent years, China has strictly regulated fentanyl-related drugs, rigorously prevented abuse, and aggressively cracked down on the smuggling, production, and sale of fentanyl substances and their precursors—achieving tangible results.

A spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that the white paper provides an authoritative explanation of China’s extensive efforts, innovative practices, and concrete achievements in fentanyl regulation—from controlling the substances themselves and combating related crimes, to regulating precursor chemicals, deploying technological tools, enhancing overall enforcement, and advancing global fentanyl governance. It helps domestic and international audiences understand China’s position, actions, and results more fully, objectively, and comprehensively.

The spokesperson stressed that facts speak louder than words. The U.S. has spread numerous lies about fentanyl, smeared China, shifted blame, and insisted on imposing tariffs on Chinese goods under the guise of fentanyl concerns—an irrational move that hurts both sides. China’s position is clear: it is willing to engage in practical cooperation with the U.S. based on equality and mutual respect, but firmly opposes using the fentanyl issue as an excuse to pressure, threaten, or blackmail China. The spokesperson urged the U.S. to respect the facts, act in its own best interests, and make the right choice.

Editor: Zhiyu Wang

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Guancha.cn (Chinese: 观察者网; lit. 'Obsr Net') is a privately owned news site based in Shanghai, China.
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