China is Prepared for Trump’s Global Tariff War

Editor’s Note: US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on April 2, imposing a 10% universal tariff globally and levying so-called “reciprocal tariffs” with varying rates on different countries and regions. Among these, tariffs on China are 34%, the EU 20%, and Vietnam 45%. This is the largest and most absurd unilateral tariff war launched by the US in the post-war era.

On April 4, China launched a comprehensive counter-attack with “eleven arrows fired simultaneously.” The Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce, and the General Administration of Customs successively issued multiple countermeasures against the US, including imposing an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States effective April 10; adding 16 US entities to the export control list and 11 US companies to the unreliable entity list; suspending the import qualification of products from 6 US companies; and implementing export controls on certain medium and heavy rare earth-related items.

On April 7, the United States once again threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that it would never accept this, and if the US insisted on going its own way, China would definitely fight to the end.

On April 9, China responded with retaliatory tariffs of 84% on US goods. In response, Trump increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% on the same day. However, the White House clarified the next day that the tariff rate had risen to 145%.

On April 11, China, in retaliation, announced an increase in tariffs on all American imports from the previous 84% to 125%.

On April 17, the US published a fact sheet indicating that total tariffs on certain goods from China reach up to 245%.

Regarding the prospects of the Sino-US “tariff war,” Professor Zhang Weiwei was interviewed by Serbia’s “Euronews” on February 8 regarding related issues.The following is the full transcript of this interview.

Host: Professor Zhang, you quoted Kissinger’s famous saying, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” You also stated that China is well-prepared to cope with the US tariff war. How has China prepared?

Zhang Weiwei: If you look at the so-called tariff war or trade war launched by the United States, according to our calculations, in the trade war initiated during Trump’s first term, approximately 90% of the increased tariffs were paid by American consumers and American companies. During Trump’s second term, no matter what “war” he prepares to launch against China, the result will be similar to the first round of the Sino-US trade war. The reason is obvious: the United States needs Chinese goods.

My conclusion is that the American economy’s dependence on China has surpassed the Chinese economy’s dependence on the United States. This is because, influenced by neoliberalism and deindustrialization, the American economy has become increasingly hollowed out, and the situation in Europe is roughly the same. Therefore, the United States has a higher degree of trade dependence on China, and the United States will suffer more losses in a trade war. Both China and the United States will suffer losses, but the losses suffered by the United States will be greater.

Host: But neither the United States nor China has added some core items, such as tariffs related to rare metals, to the list of increased tariffs.

Zhang Weiwei: This is related to the Sino-US tech war. The Biden administration formulated and issued a sanctions list targeting more than 140 Chinese companies, imposing severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor and chip industries. As a countermeasure to the US approach, China has strictly restricted the export of various rare metals to the United States. Furthermore, according to Chinese regulations, not only can Chinese companies not sell restricted rare metals to the United States, but foreign companies also cannot resell imported Chinese rare metals to the United States. This is very punitive for the United States because the United States initiated the sanctions against China first. If the United States withdraws the sanctions, China can also take corresponding measures.

Host: You said earlier that in the event of a trade war between China and the United States, the United States would suffer more losses than China. But how would small countries be affected by the trade war? For example, countries like Serbia, which has very important ties and a strategic partnership with China.

Zhang Weiwei: This makes me want to talk about the EU’s position (on Sino-Serbian economic and trade relations). Yesterday, in an interview with another media outlet, I said that the EU should distinguish between EU affairs and Sino-Serbian economic and trade relations, because these are completely different. Sino-Serbian relations are independent of the EU. The friendship between China and Serbia has a long history, continuing from the Yugoslav era to the present, with a high degree of continuity. The EU should respect Serbia’s sovereignty, and of course, it should also respect China’s sovereignty. In addition, I also told Serbian friends that the more you value developing relations with China, the more the EU will respect you.

Host: What is your view on the trajectory and outcome of TikTok?

Zhang Weiwei: If we temporarily put aside politics and look at the TikTok issue from a business perspective, when the United States raises the TikTok issue, I think it refers to TikTok (US), not TikTok (global), demanding that it give up 50% of its shares. Then the United States must negotiate with TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, but there has been no negotiation so far.

In the past two-plus weeks, the Chinese government and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs have responded to this issue at least twice: First, if the United States wants to conduct commercial negotiations related to technology transfer, involving “algorithms,” it must obtain the approval of the Chinese government. Second, if the negotiations involve Chinese companies, the companies must comply with Chinese laws and regulations. Therefore, Donald Trump should consider the demands of the Chinese government; otherwise, he will not be able to do anything.

Host: Now we see that the development of China’s DeepSeek AI large language model has caused a huge stir in the US artificial intelligence field. What is the current situation of China and the United States in the field of artificial intelligence? When we talk about mutual cooperation between China and the United States, will artificial intelligence become a new insurmountable red line?

Zhang Weiwei: Regarding artificial intelligence, discussions must be held between China and the United States, between China, the United States, and other countries, ideally within the entire international community, because artificial intelligence will affect the entire human society, human life, the form of warfare, and many other aspects. But you know, historical development has its own logic, which is sometimes quite pessimistic. For example, you have to go through many things, even the use of nuclear weapons, before you start discussing nuclear disarmament. I hope that humanity has become more intelligent and rational in dealing with the challenges of artificial intelligence. China can start the dialogue now; China is ready to engage in dialogue.

Host: How should Europe defend its own interests?

Zhang Weiwei: This is precisely Donald Trump’s typical style: first bluffing, then starting negotiations to reach a deal. We can see that Donald Trump respects strong leaders and strong countries more. If the EU appears too weak in front of the United States, the EU will suffer. This is our observation. I believe that the EU has its own interests and should clearly defend them when facing the United States. Any country, any nation, any international organization should defend its own dignity and interests.

Editor: yanghanyi