Aerospace: The Ultimate Battlefield for US and China

In the realm of physical spaces for human activities, the primary domains consist of the sea, land, air, and space. So, how does China compare with the United States in these areas?
The shipbuilding industry
The shipbuilding industry is where the United States lags behind the fastest. Among the sea, land, air, and space sectors, China was the first to surpass the United States, making it currently the area of China’s greatest advantage. Shipbuilding holds two significant military implications for the United States. Firstly, it pertains to naval vessel replenishment. The United States emphasizes the need for significant technological advantages because modern warships have long construction cycles.
Once a U.S. aircraft carrier is sunk, it cannot be quickly replaced. The service speed of U.S. aircraft carriers has decreased from over three years per carrier in the past to approximately one every ten years today. Even with considerations for increased efficiency during wartime, it remains challenging for the U.S. to replenish an aircraft carrier annually.
Secondly, shipbuilding relates to logistics material transportation. Modern warfare demands a massive amount of resources, and without proper logistics, the U.S. military would be at a disadvantage. During the Gulf War, commercial ships were responsible for transporting U.S. military supplies. The U.S. commandeered or leased around 282 civilian cargo ships, including 25 U.S. or U.S.-controlled cargo ships, 47 oil tankers, 187 cargo ships flying foreign flags, and 23 oil tankers. In the Korean War, the U.S. relied on Japan for logistics support, which boosted Japan’s wartime orders and contributed to its economic development.
During the Gulf War, the U.S. engaged in combat for only a few dozen days, yet the resources consumed amounted to at least several million tons, with some sources even claiming tens of millions of tons. In the event of a military conflict with China, the demand for resources would undoubtedly far exceed these quantities. If the U.S. were to transport all its logistics from its mainland, it would not sustain such high consumption levels. Hence, it relies on allies like Japan and South Korea for logistical support, effectively involving them in the conflict.
China became the first country among the sea, land, air, and space domains to achieve global supremacy in shipbuilding. As of the third quarter of 2024, China accounted for 55.1% (by completed tonnage), 74.7% (by new orders), and 61.4% (by order backlog) of the world’s shipbuilding industry. Notably, China had already claimed the top spot in all three indicators back in 2010, surpassing South Korea, and had outpaced the United States long ago.
Source: Bloomberg News
China is currently the only country capable of building the three crown jewels of shipbuilding (large cruise ships, LNG carriers, and aircraft carriers). Only European companies and China have orders for large cruise ships, with the U.S. having lost its ability to construct them. China and South Korea dominate the LNG transport ship market, while China and Western countries can build aircraft carriers.
Regarding aircraft carriers, China’s Liaoning ship was launched in 2010, and since then, China has launched a total of three aircraft carriers, with two in active service. In contrast, the U.S. has launched two aircraft carriers (the Ford was launched in November 2013 and commissioned in July 2017; the Kennedy was launched in October 2019 but remains uncommissioned). This means that in the realm of shipbuilding’s three crown jewels, the U.S. can currently produce only one, while China can build all three.
Furthermore, the U.S.’s construction pace for its sole aircraft carrier is considerably slow. The only carrier currently under construction, the Kennedy, began in February 2011, was launched in December 2019, and is yet to be delivered to the U.S. Navy. In comparison, China’s Shandong ship construction began in November 2013, was launched in April 2017, and delivered to the navy in December 2019. The Fujian Aircraft Carrier, which started construction several years later, was launched in June 2022.
The 80,000-tonne Fujian is the PLA’s first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier
In summary, China’s aircraft carrier construction time is only half of the U.S.’s. Considering China’s rapid advancements in carrier technology, this speed is even more impressive.
The sluggish pace has also impacted the U.S. aircraft carrier fleet’s renewal. Out of the 11 active U.S. aircraft carriers, only three have been commissioned after the year 2000, with the youngest carrier entering service in 1998, making it 27 years old.
By looking at the number of carriers commissioned in each decade, it’s evident that the U.S. has been on a downward trend: three carriers in the 1980s, three carriers in the 1990s, a drop to two carriers in the 2000s, and a further decline to one carrier from 2010-2019. Now in 2025, over half of the third decade of the 21st century has passed, and the U.S. has yet to commission a new carrier.
One can’t help but wonder about the U.S.’s sense of crisis. If China’s next carrier features electromagnetic catapults, nuclear power, and is equipped with fifth-generation aircraft and fixed-wing early warning aircraft, then China’s carrier technology will be on par with that of the U.S., with China possessing superior mass production capabilities.
Consider this: the Fujian carrier was launched five years after the Shandong, which took place in 2022. The estimated timeframe for China’s next carrier to be launched is within the next two to three years.
The automobile industry
In 2023, China’s automobile industry became the second to surpass the United States in car production, with China being the first country in the world to exceed 30 million vehicles, reaching 30.16 million vehicles, while the United States only produced 10.61 million vehicles. China’s output is almost three times that of the United States.
China surpassed the United States in automobile production in 2008 and overtook Japan to become the world’s number one in 2009. Once China surpasses the United States, it’s challenging for the U.S. to catch up.
Furthermore, China has caught up in terms of car performance. Xiaomi, known for its smartphones, ventured into car manufacturing and produced competitive models within just over two years, showcasing the advancements in China’s comprehensive automobile industry.
Xiaomi’s CEO, Lei Jun, announced car manufacturing on March 30, 2021, and Xiaomi’s car company was registered on September 1 of the same year. The release conference for Xiaomi’s first car, the SU7, was held on March 28, 2024, and the first 10,000 cars were produced by April 29, 2024.
Huawei’s leading smart driving technology is among the best globally. The AITO M9, priced at 500,000 RMB, had 200,000 preorders in 2024, capturing half of the market share for cars priced above 500,000 RMB in China. This market was previously dominated by brands like BBA.
BYD’s new energy vehicle production was the world’s highest in 2023, introducing the Qin L hybrid model with a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers. Ten years ago, who would have imagined Chinese cars achieving a fuel consumption of 2.9 liters per 100 kilometers. After launching on May 2, 2024, the Qin L sold over 30,000 units each month from July to November, making it one of China’s best-selling sedans.
BYD factory sets annual production record of over one million cars
In the electric vehicle era, American giants General Motors and Ford have fallen behind. Ford CEO Jim Farley mentioned in a podcast on October 21, 2024, that he drives a Xiaomi, indicating a shift in preferences.
Besides traditional automakers, the U.S. has only Tesla as a new force, while China boasts numerous innovative automobile companies, each with its unique strengths. Notably, Tesla’s 2023 production of 1.845985 million vehicles included 0.957691 million vehicles from its Shanghai factory, accounting for a significant 51.9%, surpassing the combined output of Tesla’s other factories in Fremont, Texas, and Berlin.
Imagine the consequences if Tesla were to suddenly lose half of its vehicle production. For China, automobile manufacturing technology has become something that can be exported to the United States.
I’ve only touched upon automobiles here, not even delving into high-speed rail technology, an area where the United States currently lags behind.
The aviation industry
The aviation industry is an industry that is making strides towards overtaking the United States.
First, drones have already surpassed the U.S., showcasing various types of applications such as anti-submarine drones and drone motherships exhibited at the Zhuhai Airshow.
Let’s focus on this particular aspect: in October 2024, a company named “Baijing Hangxian” in Changzhou, Jiangsu, introduced an unmanned transport aircraft capable of carrying 5 tons with a maximum range of 2600 kilometers. I bet you haven’t heard of this company, right? That’s precisely my point – numerous lesser-known Chinese companies are delving into drone technology, and they are finding success without much difficulty.
Baijing Hangxian
Furthermore, the sixth-generation fighter has also been unveiled ahead of the United States, which is quite a remarkable development. History has proven over the past century that air superiority plays a crucial role in warfare, with high-dimensional combat holding significant advantages over lower dimensions.
China’s 6th-Generation fighter jet successfully completes first flight
During the Korean War, when China requested air cover from the Soviet Union, Stalin delayed support under the pretext of the air force not being ready, indicating the critical importance of aerial power.
Let’s talk about manned aircraft. Initially, I thought this industry would take a considerable amount of time to flourish, and its current production levels are unmatched globally. However, recent data has surprised me. “Aviation Knowledge” reported at the Zhuhai Airshow in November that industry insiders claim that China’s jet regional airliner C909 (formerly known as the ARJ21) has already accounted for 60% of global deliveries.
This figure left me astounded, prompting me to investigate further. Brazilian aviation industry has four types of jet airliners, namely the E170, E175, E190-E2, and E195-E2, with E170 and E175 being comparable to the C909 in terms of seating capacity.
The C909 accommodates a maximum of 97 passengers, while the E170 and E175 can seat up to 80 and 90 passengers, respectively. The other two Brazilian models have higher seating capacities, with the E190-E2 accommodating up to 114 passengers and the E195-E2 up to 146 passengers, both fewer than China’s C919 (seating capacity of 158-192 passengers).
The Brazilian aviation industry delivered a total of 42 jet civil airliners in the first three quarters of 2024, while China’s COMAC delivered 47 aircraft throughout the year, indicating that the annual delivery number of the Brazilian aviation industry is expected to exceed that of COMAC.
However, focusing on the E170 and E175 models comparable to the C909, the Brazilian aviation industry did not deliver any E170s in the first three quarters of 2024 but delivered a total of 15 E175s (3 in the first quarter, 8 in the second quarter, and 4 in the third quarter), whereas the C909 delivered a significant 35 aircraft throughout the year.
Currently, only China’s COMAC and the Brazilian aviation industry produce jet regional airliners with seating capacities below 100 passengers, as Bombardier of Canada exited this market in 2020 to focus on business jets. Specifically, in terms of delivery in 2024, the C909 and E175 are the only jet regional airliners below 100 seats being manufactured and delivered globally. Based on the current deliveries, the C909’s market share in 2024 already represents over half of the comparable aircraft below 100 seats.
The historical delivery records for the C909 are as follows:
2015: 1 aircraft
2016: 1 aircraft
2017: 2 aircraft
2018: 6 aircraft
2019: 12 aircraft
2020: 23 aircraft
2021: 21 aircraft
2022: 34 aircraft
2023: 22 aircraft
2024: 35 aircraft
Total: 157 aircraft
Additionally, the delivery pace of the C919 is increasing rapidly and has surpassed that of the C909 (ARJ21) during the same period, indicating significant progress in China’s aviation industry:
December 2022: 1 aircraft
2023: 3 aircraft
2024: 12 aircraft
Total: 16 aircraft
How does COMAC’s delivery of 47 aircraft in 2024 compare to Airbus and Boeing? In 2023, Airbus delivered 735 aircraft, while Boeing delivered 528. Comparing COMAC’s 2024 deliveries to the previous year’s deliveries by Boeing and Airbus, COMAC’s output is less than 10% of Boeing and Airbus.
According to “Simplified Flight” website on January 1, 2024, Boeing delivered only 318 aircraft from January to November, compared to 461 in the same period of 2023, marking a significant decline.
In contrast, Airbus delivered 643 aircraft during the same period, meaning Boeing’s 2024 deliveries were less than half of Airbus’s. Clearly, COMAC’s 2024 delivery volume has likely surpassed 10% of Boeing’s, showcasing impressive progress, albeit influenced by various issues faced by Boeing.
The Aerospace industry
In the field of aerospace, China is also catching up and is expected to be the last in our country to catch up with the United States in terms of space, land, air, and sea.
Currently, China does not have a heavy-duty rocket in service. The image below, illustrates a variety of rockets from left to right: the Soviet “Energia,” American “Falcon Heavy,” Russian “Yenisei,” Chinese Long March 9, American SLS, Soviet N1, American “Saturn V,” improved American SLS, and American “Starship.”
Among these nine rockets, only two are currently in service: the American SLS (the world’s largest rocket in service with a near-Earth orbit carrying capacity of 95 tons) and the Falcon Heavy (with a near-Earth orbit carrying capacity of 63.8 tons).
Additionally, the American Starship made its debut flight in April 2023, claiming to eventually achieve an Earth orbit carrying capacity of over 250 tons without recovery, although this capability has not yet been achieved and is still undergoing flight testing. As of November 19, 2024, it had completed six flights. If successful, the Starship will become the world’s largest rocket.
This image dates back to 2022. The United States launched a new heavy rocket called “New Glen” on the 17th of January, developed by Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin company, with a near-Earth orbit carrying capacity of 45 tons.
China’s Long March 9 has yet to be introduced and is still in development. According to Xinhua News, the Long March 9 will come in three configurations with near-Earth orbit carrying capacities ranging from 50 to 140 tons, matching the 95-ton level of the American SLS.
In addition, for manned lunar missions, China is developing the Long March 10 with an estimated near-Earth orbit carrying capacity of 70 tons. The Long March 10 is expected to be launched before the Long March 9, aiming to achieve manned lunar missions by 2030.
Rocket carrying capacity determines space exploration capabilities. It will take time for China to catch up with the United States in heavy rocket technology.
Furthermore, in aspects such as deep space exploration (where the U.S. already has Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft traveling beyond the solar system), asteroid exploration, and planetary exploration, China lags behind the United States.
For instance, in planetary exploration, the U.S. has launched probes to Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn, while China has only conducted exploration missions to Mars thus far.
In the current space domain, observing the competition between China and the U.S., I will simplify by focusing on two key aspects: The speed of manned lunar missions: The United States is attempting to resume manned lunar missions, while China is planning its first manned lunar mission. It’s a race to see who can achieve this feat first.
It seems that the United States’ capabilities are regressing, as evidenced by the delays in the manned lunar missions. On May 14, 2019, then NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine announced the lunar mission program named after the Greek mythology twin sister of Apollo, the moon goddess Artemis.
The program consisted of three missions: Artemis 1 (unmanned orbital test flight in 2021), Artemis 2 (manned orbital test flight in 2023), and Artemis 3 (scheduled for 2024), ultimately culminating in a manned lunar landing with Artemis 3.
The original timeline aimed for a manned lunar landing in 2024. However, due to several delays, the Orion spacecraft of Artemis 1 successfully completed an unmanned lunar flyby mission on the morning of December 11, 2022, landing safely in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California. This completion in late 2022 was delayed from the initial plan of 2021.
Due to the setbacks in the Artemis 1 mission, NASA announced in November 2021 that the manned lunar landing would be delayed until 2025, moving away from the original 2024 target.
Furthermore, on January 9, 2024, due to unsatisfactory progress, NASA once again postponed its manned lunar missions, declaring that the Artemis 2 and Artemis 3 missions would be respectively delayed to September 2025 and September 2026.
On October 17, 2024, the U.S. Government Accountability Office released a report stating that due to slow progress in the exploration ground systems, it might lead to further delays in manned lunar orbit missions and landings.
The exploration ground systems refer to the ground facilities supporting the launch of the SLS heavy rocket, including the Mobile Launcher-1 (ML-1) and ML-2. While ML-1 is undergoing refurbishment and testing, progress has been sluggish.
Moreover, the Orion spacecraft, intended to transport American astronauts to the moon, encountered an unexpected issue following the unmanned lunar flyby mission of Artemis 1. Part of the heat shield structure accidentally detached, leaving a hole instead of undergoing controlled ablation as designed.
NASA identified potential risks and is assessing whether to replace the heat shield material, which could lead to further delays in the mission.
Another area of concern is the development speed of heavy rockets. Currently, China does not have a heavy rocket, but in the coming years, the Long March 10 and Long March 9 are expected to be introduced. The progress of the American Starship is also noteworthy, as China’s Long March 9 heavy rocket is projected to have a near-Earth orbit carrying capacity in the hundred-ton range (up to 140 tons).
If the Starship can evolve to a capacity of over 250 tons post the Long March 9’s deployment, it would indeed be impressive. However, the Starship is still undergoing flight testing, and its final configuration remains to be determined.
In asteroid exploration, China is making significant strides. China’s first asteroid exploration mission, Tianwen-2, is scheduled for launch in May 2025 with a sample return mission. Additionally, China has advanced plans for asteroid defense, aiming to prevent potential asteroid impacts on Earth.
This commitment to cutting-edge space exploration was highlighted during the China Association for Science and Technology Annual Forum in Hefei, Anhui, on October 22, 2023.
This ambitious plan includes the first implementation of a near-Earth asteroid defense mission. “Regarding the extremely low-probability yet high-impact event of a near-Earth asteroid colliding with Earth, we will carry out kinetic impact on an asteroid millions of kilometers away, altering its orbit, and conduct impact effect assessments in orbit, achieving precision impact, effective propulsion, measurable results, and clear communication.”
I have a feeling that in a few years, China may surpass the United States in manned lunar missions, significantly impacting American morale. By then, China’s advancements in heavy rocket technology could become one of the few sources of pride in American aerospace high technology relative to China.
Editor: huyueyue
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